With Congress spinning their wheels and not able to actually push much through other than undoing some Obama rules, something John Boehner said several weeks ago rings true for several of their bigger goals. He said he doesn’t think tax reform is going to happen this year:
“I was a little more optimistic about it early in the year; now my odds are 60/40. The border adjustment tax is deader than a doornail. Tax reform is just a bunch of happy talk.”
And so once again Russia dominates the week. Here’s what happened…
Russia:
- Last week we heard about Donald Trump Jr.’s meeting with a Russian lawyer and the changing stories he gave around it. This week, he releases the entire email thread setting up the meeting. He says he’s just being transparent, but it turns out the New York Times was about to release them and were waiting his response. He scooped them.
- The emails show he was looking for compromising information on Clinton and that he was OK working with the Russian effort to discredit her.
- We learn the meetings were set up by British publicist Rod Goldstone, who offered to connect Don Jr. with sensitive documents from the Russia government that would be damaging to Clinton as “part of Russia and its government’s support for Mr. Trump.” To which Don Jr. said “I love it.”
- Before we get ahead of ourselves, the meeting may have broken federal law, but doesn’t amount to treason. It might be conspiracy, but definitely not treason.
- The meeting implicates Paul Manafort and Jared Kushner, who didn’t reveal this meeting in his security clearance forms. Since May, Kushner has added over 100 names of foreign officials he had contact with last year. In his defense though, it appears Kushner’s lawyers found the email thread and turned the emails over.
- The Russian lawyer they met with says the meeting was always about sanctions, though the emails say otherwise.
- We still don’t have a complete list of all who attended the meeting, though the list of Russians keeps growing. We now know a Russian lobbyist and an interpreter were there as well, and possibly two more people.
- Trump Sr. says the Secret Service vetted the meeting. The Secret Service says that didn’t happen.
- Trump Sr. denies knowledge of this meeting, but after the meeting ended, he tweeted out a dig about Hillary’s emails. Two days before the meeting, he said he’d give a speech the following week that would tell all about the Clintons. That speech didn’t happen.
- It turns out that the White House crafted Trump Jr.’s initial statement about the meeting, which turned out to be untrue.
- A democratic representative files the first formal articles of impeachment against Trump over obstruction of justice in the firing of Comey.
- According to the Wall Street Journal, our intelligence agencies saw evidence of Russians attempting collusion with the Trump campaign in 2015, even before he officially declared his candidacy.
- Kushner’s digital campaign program is under investigation to find out if they assisted the Russians in targeting specific voter markets during the election meddling. Intelligence officials are pretty sure they had U.S. help.
- Trump backs off on the idea of a joint U.S. and Russia cybersecurity force saying that it can’t happen.
- Democratic lawyers from the Obama camp sue Trump over invasion of privacy. They allege that the campaign was involved in what has been seen as a Russian operation, but which now seems to include campaign members. This operation resulted in the dumps of tens of thousands of emails that included private information.
- After passing nearly unanimously in the Senate, the Russian sanctions bill stalls in the House while the White House continues pressure to soften the bill.
- Mike Pence’s spokesperson refuses three times to answer whether Pence has had any undisclosed meetings with Russians.
- According to a coroners report, Peter Smith asphyxiated himself. Smith died 10 days after an interview with the Wall Street Journal where he described his plan to work with Trump’s campaign to get dirt on Clinton. It’s not known whether Trump’s campaign was aware of Smith’s effort.
- People start comparing the DNC getting opposition information from Ukraine sources with Trump Jr.’s effort get oppo on Clinton. Right now it looks like comparing a traffic ticket with totaling your car, but more info will come out on both.
- Some of the memos Comey wrote summarizing his conversations with Trump contain classified information, but not the one that he leaked to the press. Comey said they were his personal memos, but the FBI now says they are FBI property and Trump accuses Comey of breaking the law. So now we’re looking at an investigation into Comey’s handling of the memos. Full. Circle.
Courts/Justice:
- Jeff Sessions takes credit for last week’s Medicare and Medicaid fraud bust saying it’s part of the administration’s effort to get tough on drugs. It turns out Medicare fraud is a huge thing, and all presidents since Clinton have funded task forces to crack down on it. They’ve recovered tens of billions of dollars since the 1990s.
- Twitter users blocked by Trump sue, saying that since Sean Spicer said Trump’s tweets are official statements, Twitter users can’t be barred from viewing them.
Healthcare:
- The Senate Republicans’ revised health bill increases insurance subsidies and keeps some of the ACA taxes.
- This new version allows insurance companies who do sell ACA-compliant policies to sell policies that don’t include all the mandated coverages as well.
- It also opens the door to insurance companies being able to deny people with pre-existing conditions access to certain healthcare plans.
- The latest version of the bill doesn’t change the cuts to Medicaid and keeps it as a block grant with per capita spending caps. It also includes $1 billion in Medicaid funding that only Alaska qualifies for, largely seen as a bribe for Lisa Murkowski’s support.
- With teen pregnancy at its lowest rate in recent history, the Trump administration cut $213.6 million in research and programs aimed at preventing teen pregnancy (this includes funding for Children’s Hospital of Los Angeles and Johns Hopkins University, along with almost 80 others).
- Governors from both parties come out strongly against the new healthcare bill at their annual summer meeting. They don’t issue a joint statement, though, because they all have different reasons.
- Mitch McConnell delays the healthcare vote until John McCain comes back from what was deemed minor surgery. He’s expected to recover in a week, but health experts think it could be more like two weeks. This gives the bill an even slimmer chance of passing.
- Lindsay Graham also comes up with a healthcare plan, which basically gives more power to the states.
- From Politico’s talks with legislators: “Republicans REALLY want to wrap up the health care discussion. Sure, they want to repeal Obamacare. But the conversation they’re having now is how many people are going to get booted off their insurance. That’s not good politics.” Also it’s kind of heartless.
- Burglars break into Senator Dean Heller’s office in Las Vegas. Probably not related, but Heller was among the first Senators to say he wouldn’t approve the healthcare bill.
International:
- Trump celebrates Bastille Day in Paris with President Macron.
- Rex Tillerson heads to Qatar and then other Mideast countries to try to patch things up. Qatar agrees to stop funding terrorists.
- It turns out that the UAE was behind the cyberattacks that planted fake news stories and social media posts about Qatar’s empire, leading to the four-nation boycott and a new quagmire in the Mideast. It was originally thought that Russia was behind it. Now U.S. intelligence thinks it was part of a larger plan by the UAE to destabilize the area.
- If Tillerson can fix this, it will be his first major diplomatic accomplishment. If it backfires, it will strengthen Qatar’s relationship with Iran.
- Trump appears to support Saudi Arabia over Qatar in this standoff, but Saudi is known for funding terrorists as well.
- While Trump takes credit for sparking the Qatar standoff, some allege that this is more on Kushner. Kushner tried and failed to get a $500 million loan from a Qatari businessman, and then allegedly pushed Trump to take a hard stance on Qatar.
- Trump delays his state visit to the UK until next year.
- Steve Bannon and Jared Kushner look at proposals to use private mercenary firms to fight in Afghanistan.
- Iran has been stepping in to fill the void left when U.S. troops departed from Iraq. They’ve been giving aid, working with the government, and shipping food and supplies.
- Civilian casualties from U.S. airstrikes in the Mideast are on pace to more than double under Trump.
Legislation/Congress:
- The White House wants Congress to take care of these items before the August recess:
- Repeal the ACA
- Raise the debt ceiling
- Agree on a general outline of tax reform
- Clear remaining nominations
Note: It’s almost August already.
- Mitch McConnell delays the August recess in order to take care of some of the above items. He blames the delay on lack of cooperation from Democrats, but with the Republican majorities in both houses, he doesn’t need Democrats’ cooperation.
- The bill to overhaul and privatize air traffic control stalls in the House.
- As a part of the effort by Everytown for Gun Safety, six states (Louisiana, Nevada, New Jersey, North Dakota, Tennessee and Utah) pass gun restrictions for domestic abusers, bringing the total number of states with such laws to 23.
Travel Ban/Immigration/Discrimination:
- After a huge public outcry, Trump intervenes to grant visas to the all-female Afghanistan robotics team so they can come here and compete. Very cool.
- Trump plans to delay or eliminate a rule to let foreign entrepreneurs come here to start companies. Business leaders and organizations are quick to criticize the move.
- Jeff Sessions speaks to the Alliance Defending Freedom, a group accused of being an anti-LGBTQ hate group.
- In a move to restore some of the protections for workers that one of Trump’s executive orders rescinded, the House unanimously passes a nondiscrimination bill.
- A federal judge in Hawaii rules that the administration’s definition of bona fide relationships in regard to the travel ban is too narrow. He ruled that the definition includes broader family ties, like grandparents, grandchildren, brothers-in-law, sisters-in-law, aunts, uncles, nieces, nephews, and cousins of people in the U.S.
- Trump shortens his requirement for the border wall from 2,000 miles to just 900, and says he wants it to be somewhat transparent so we can see people on other side throwing over bags of drugs. We don’t want Americans getting hit on the head by bags of drugs.
- The number of bullying incidents where the bully uses Trump’s words and slogans continues to rise in schools. The incidents are primarily based on religious or racial prejudice.
- Trump and some of his aides are working with two conservative senators (Tom Cotton and David Perdue) to draft legislation drastically curbing legal immigration. The legislation would cut legal immigration in half. Why is this important? Because economists say that the only way Trump can achieve his predicted economic growth is if the immigrant population doubles.
Climate/EPA:
- A chunk of ice nearly the size of Delaware breaks off from Antarctica’s Larsen C ice shelf. The iceberg’s water volume is about twice Lake Erie’s. I mention it because some attribute this to global warming, but scientists are still looking at whether it’s related.
Budget/Economy:
- The White House objects to parts of both the House and Senate version of the National Defense Authorization Act for 2018. Specifically they object to a prohibition on the Base Realignment and Closure Commission (BRAC) process (base closures). They also object to greater private audits of the Pentagon.
- In Senate testimony, Janet Yellen says, “I believe we have done a great deal since the financial crisis to strengthen the financial system and to make it more resilient.” She also indicates that some of the recent rollbacks passed by the House could lead to another crisis. She’s willing to consider changes to the regulations though.
Elections:
- The DoJ sends a letter to all states requesting information about voter rolls and related processes. States take this to indicate that the DoJ is looking to purge voter rolls and roll back some portions of the National Voter Registration Act, which sought to streamline the process of registering and make it easier for eligible voters.
- After running up against a slew of legal challenges, Trump’s voter fraud commission tells states not to send them any of the information they requested for now.
- The White House publishes all the comments they’ve received so far on the voter fraud commission’s request for information on a government website. The comments weren’t vetted and the now-public information includes commenters’ names, emails, addresses, and more. Some are pretty profane and some include links to porn.
Miscellaneous:
- The spin about Trump’s slow nomination process is giving me whiplash. Democrats have requested cloture on many more Trump nominees than were requested for Obama’s. But Trump is also way behind in nominating candidates, and often sends them over without the correct paperwork.
- Trump has an off-the-record talk with reporters on air force one, but then wonders why it wasn’t covered, so it becomes on the record.
- Paul Ryan puts the kibosh on holding any more townhalls, saying they’re just becoming screamfests.
- The FCC gives phone companies leeway to jack phone rates for prisoners, which were capped under Obama. Prisoners now have to pay more to phone home.
- Christopher Wray took questions in the Senate around his confirmation as FBI director to replace Comey.
- Trump’s personal attorney responded to an email from a critic with a series of profanity-laced emails.
- Both Mike Pence and Justin Trudeau join the governors meeting in Providence, RI. Trudeau is the first foreign head of state to attend, likely because renegotiations for NAFTA are about to begin.
- Highlighting the tepid relationship between AZ Senator Jeff Flake’s and the White House, the White House meets with three possible challengers to his seat in next year’s election. Trump isn’t afraid to bring in the big guns against lawmakers who disagree with him.
- The U.S. Chamber of Commerce, our most powerful lobbying group, is not only losing power, but some of its largest members consider pulling out. Members disagree on a number of issues facing us right now.
Polls:
- Since 2015, Republicans who have a positive view of education has dropped from 54% to 36%. 58% of Republican say colleges and universities have a negative effect on the U.S.
- 54% of Americans think Trump did something wrong or illegal in regard to Russia. 58% think one of his campaign members did. 67% think Russia’s 2016 hacking poses a future threat.
- 82% of Americans say large businesses, lobbyists, the wealthy, and Wall Street have too much power in D.C. 75% say people like themselves don’t have enough power, and another 3% say people like themselves DO have too much power. Who are these altruistic 3%?
- An Iowa poll puts Trumps disapproval rating at 59%.