Month: November 2017

Week 44 in Trump

Posted on November 28, 2017 in Politics, Trump

This week, I’m thankful for much-needed vacations. Which means this week’s recap is short and sweet. I do want to highlight my favorite story of the week though…

In a meeting with Democratic Senators on tax reform, Gary Cohn fakes a bad connection to get Trump off the call. Senator Tom Carper said “We’re not going to have a real conversation here – can’t you just tell the president that he is brilliant and say we’re losing … the connection and then hang up?” So Cohn did just that.

If this is how advisors and members of Congress have to work with the president, what does it say about him? Anyway, here’s what else happened in week 44…

Russia:

  1. Mueller is now interested in Representative Dana Rohrabacher (R-CA) over meetings he had with Julian Assange in August. The Kremlin regards Rohrabacher as an intelligence source, and values him enough to give him a secret code name.
  2. In a sign he might be negotiating a deal with Mueller, Michael Flynn cuts ties with Trump’s lawyers.
  3. Mueller adds Michael Flynn’s business partner to the list of people he’s investigating.
  4. Jared Kushner’s role in the white house diminishes as he becomes further involved in the Russia investigation. Kushner says he’s just focusing on the important things and that there’s nothing to worry about.
  5. The FBI knew for at least a year that Russian hackers were trying to break into many U.S. officials’ gmail accounts, but the FBI never bothered to warn the targeted officials about it.

Courts/Justice:

  1. In yet another instance where state abortion laws ignore the the actual law, a federal court overturns Texas’s latest anti-abortion law.
  2. Police chiefs in several cities are frustrated by the DOJ’S hands-off approach to the consent decrees agreed to under Obama. These decrees were put in place to help police departments deal with problems of injustice and systemic prejudice.

International:

  1. Trump adds North Korea back to the list of state sponsors of terrorism.
  2. In the midst of impeachment hearings, Zimbabwe’s President Mugabe resigns after 37 years in power.
  3. About a dozen State Department officials formally accuse Secretary of State Tillerson of violating a federal law, in this case one to prevent enlisting child soldiers. He did this by excluding Iraq, Afghanistan, and Myanmar from a list of offenders.
  4. A few weeks ago, the prime minister of Lebanon, Saad Hariri, resigned suddenly citing issues with Iran and Hezbollah. Now he says he’s not resigning yet. Apparently the Iran-backed president of Lebanon urged him to rethink it.
  5. Despite coming out tough on Syria at the start of his term, Trump has pretty much ceded leadership on post-war planning to Putin. Putin hosts the leaders of Iran and Turkey in a planning meeting, and experts say Putin has won in Syria.
  6. Terrorists bomb a Sufi Mosque in Egypt, killing at least 305 people. Trump responds by saying we need to build that wall.
  7. Despite Clinton being criticized as Secretary of state for security issues, Tillerson not only refused to meet with his security director for most of this year, but he dismissed the director after one 5-minute meeting, leaving the security position empty.
  8. The Trump administration announces that the Palestinian diplomatic delegation in D.C. will be shut down, but then changes its mind and says it can stay open for at least 90 more days. After the initial decision, Abbas refuses a call from Kushner, referring him instead to the Palestinian Authority’s representative in Washington.
  9. Air Force General John Hyten, commander of the U.S. Strategic Command (STRATCOM), says if Trump made an illegal nuclear launch request, he would push back against it.

Legislation/Congress:

  1. Even Congress gets a break over Thanksgiving…

Travel Ban/Immigration/Discrimination:

  1. While House Republicans oblige Trump’s request for hiring a large number of ICE officers, Senate Republicans don’t include funding for it in their version of the appropriations bill. Both houses included extra funding for Customs and Border Patrol though.
  2. The U.S. votes against a UN resolution that condemns the glorification of Nazism, basically saying that the U.S. values freedom of speech over condemning hate speech. The only two other countries to vote against it are Ukraine and Palau.
  3. Trump says what a great thing it is that women are speaking out about sexual misconduct (that is, except for those coming out against Roy Moore and those who came out against Trump himself).
  4. For the second time, a federal judge blocks Trump’s ban on transgender troops. This judge says that Trump’s tweets on the ban were “capricious, arbitrary, and unqualified.”
  5. Customs and Border Patrol confirms they were taken completely by surprise with Trump’s first executive order demanding a travel ban. It turns out that the Trump administration disobeyed a court order in its implementation of the initial travel ban.
  6. The DHS apparently tried to hide a damning report from its inspector general and hasn’t been complying with oversight efforts.
  7. A district court judge blocks an executive order that would cut funding to sanctuary cities, saying that Trump can’t change the conditions for funding that’s already approved by Congress.
  8. Trump speaks at an event to honor the Native American Code Talkers who served in WWII, and in doing so repeats his standard attack on Elizabeth Warren by calling her Pocahontas. He’s roundly criticized for using a racial slur at this event.

Puerto Rico:

  1. Trump withdraws the USNS Comfort hospital ship from Puerto Rico, even though the island is still largely without power.

Budget/Economy:

  1. 37 out of 38 economists say that the GOP House and Senate tax plans would increase the debt substantially faster than they would improve the economy. The sole economist who disagreed says he misread the question.
  2. According to the Tax Policy Center, 50% of Americans would see higher taxes by 2027 in the Senate tax plan.
  3. The house tax plan removes the $250 deduction teachers receive in order to buy school supplies; the Senate version doubles the deduction. (Remember that even with the deduction, teachers still pay most of this out of their own pockets.)
  4. A CBO analysis finds that the Senate tax plan hurts the poor. Here are some highlights:
    • People making $30,000 or less would pay more in taxes starting in 2019.
    • Starting in 2021, people making $40,000 or less would pay more.
    • After a decade, most people making $75,000 or less would pay more.
    • Millionaires and people making $100,000 to $500,000 get tax cuts all around.
    • The healthcare changes in the Senate bill would disproportionately affect the poor.
  5. The DOJ plans to sue to prevent the merger between AT&T and Time Warner. The DOJ requested that AT&T sell CNN as a precondition, but AT&T says no thanks.
  6. After the Director of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) steps down, his deputy director becomes the acting director. But Trump uses a presidential power that lets him fill vacancies and appoints Mick Mulvaney, who is also the Director of the Office of Management and Budget. So now the courts will have to decide who will lead the agency.
  7. The FCC announces plans to end net neutrality. This means that your internet service providers will be able to tier services much like your cable company, and this means you might have to pay to access your favorite sites. In response to states promising to protect net neutrality locally, the FCC also plans to prevent states from implementing their own net neutrality rules.
  8. The legalization of marijuana in the U.S. has brought the price down by two-thirds. You’d think that would discourage the Mexican cartels, but they just moved over to shipping us more heroin instead.

Elections:

  1. Trump pretty much endorses Roy Moore for Senate. He says, “We don’t need a liberal Democrat in that seat. He totally denies [the accusations], you have to listen to him also … we don’t need somebody soft on crime like [Doug] Jones.” Except that Doug Jones IS tough on crime. He prosecuted the KKK members who bombed the 16th Street Baptist Church and he indicted the Atlanta Olympic bomber, for starters.
  2. Kellyanne Conway’s comments get her in trouble again with the Office of Government Ethics. The office accuses Conway of violating the Hatch Act when she attacked Alabama Senate candidate Doug Jones.
  3. There have so far been at least three different efforts to discredit Roy Moore’s accusers and the press covering the story:
    • A Twitter account, which has since been deleted, started a false story about a Washington Post reporter offering money for dirt on Moore.
    • A group sent out robocalls pretending to be WaPo reporters and again offering bribes for dirt on Moore.
    • A woman associated with Project Veritas contacted a WaPo reporter saying Moore had impregnated her when she was 15 and helped her get an abortion. Her facts didn’t check out though, and reporters later saw her entering Veritas’ offices. (Fun fact: Trump has made donations to Project Veritas.)

These all show an incredible lack of understanding of how real journalism works, and should show everyone how vigorously major newspapers research their stories.

Miscellaneous:

  1. One border patrol agent is killed and one badly wounded on the job, both apparently hit over the head and beaten.
  2. Trump’s current pick to lead the 2020 census is a professor who wrote a book on why competitive elections are a bad thing, which signals an effort to politicize the census.
  3. Representative Dave Trott (R-MI), who already announced he wouldn’t run for re-election, cites Trump as a factor in his decision.
  4. New York attorney general Eric Schneiderman is investigating the FCC for a scheme to corrupt the comment process on net neutrality, saying public commenters impersonated 100,000s of Americans.
  5. Trump spends Thanksgiving at Mar-a-Lago. Trump and the White House both say he’s working and very busy just an hour before he ends up on a golf course. Trump has golfed every 5.1 days of his presidency, even though he said he wouldn’t have time for that because he’d be busy working for us.
  6. Trump’s charitable foundation is in the process of shutting down. He agreed to do this last year to avoid conflicts of interest, but the foundation has also admitted to self-dealing (which means funneling charity funds to yourself, your business, or your family). For example, Trump’s golf club in Westchester County used Trump Foundation money to settle a lawsuit.
  7. Florida Democrat John Morgan says he’s leaving the party to be an independent, but also encourages Democrat Bill Nelson to leave Congress and run for governor.
  8. And in completely non-political news, Charles Manson dies. This is huge for people my age (or at least for me), because we grew up with him as the boogeyman and got scared out of our wits by Helter Skelter. Good riddance, Chuck.

Week 43 in Trump

Posted on November 21, 2017 in Politics, Trump

I’m a little late with this week’s recap; I had a busy week of my own last week! Here’s what happened in week 43. Let me know what I missed.

Russia:

  1. Documents turned over by George Papadopoulos show that Stephen Miller, one of Trump’s top advisors, knew about conversations and potential meetings between campaign members and Russian officials.

  2. Records show that Wikileaks was in contact with Donald Trump Jr. during the 2016 campaign, and that he let Steve Bannon and Kellyanne Conway know about it.

  3. After Wikileaks contacted Don Jr. about leaks, Roger Stone tweets about upcoming leaks.

  4. Fifteen minutes after Wikileaks contacts Don Jr. about dumping more Podesta emails (along with a link to said dump), Trump Sr. tweets praise for Wikileaks, and two days later Don Jr. tweets the link to the email dump.

  5. Roger Stone claims ties to Wikileaks.
  6. Mike Pence denies any ties to Wikileaks.

  7. A House Republican produces a very complex chart linking Clinton and Obama and Uranium One and the Clinton Foundation, etc., etc. However, if you follow all the links, it’s pretty meaningless. Shep Smith does a pretty good breakdown debunking this story.

  8. Sessions says there isn’t enough basis to assign a new special counsel to investigate Hillary Clinton.

  9. The Senate Judiciary Committee says that Jared Kushner didn’t turn over a documents he has about a Russian backdoor overture, Wikileaks communications, and communications with a Russian businessman.

  10. A worker at a Russian troll farm says their job was to turn out a “merry-go-round” of lies, and that trolls worked 24/7 shifts churning out misinformation. He also thinks they were connected to the Kremlin. They worked in different departments and different floors, so they were often commenting on each other’s posts and responding to each other’s comments, which just served to generate discord and start fights on social media. NBC has a pretty interesting piece on it.

  11. As a result of the Manafort charges (and potential charges against Flynn), lobbyists in D.C. scramble to get lawyers and inform the government of any actions they took on behalf of foreign governments that fall under FARA regulations. Before now, prosecutors pretty much looked the other way.

  12. A former CIA director says that Putin outsmarts Trump and that Trump doesn’t understand that it’s OK to tell Putin that you know he’s lying. In fact, Putin expects you to do that.

  13. Members of the Russia elite have invested almost $100 million in Trump properties in the U.S.

  14. Russian ambassador Sergey Kislyak says it would take him too long to name all the Trump officials he met with.

  15. Jared Kushner’s security clearance is still only temporary after 10 months in office.

  16. Trump starts paying his own and some staff’s legal bills. Previously the RNC had been paying.

  17. Christopher Steele, author of the Steele dossier, thinks the report is mostly accurate (70-90%).

  18. Jeff Sessions appears before the House Judiciary Committee again, saying he didn’t lie under oath about knowledge of any Russia meetings and that he just doesn’t remember. He later says he might have pushed back against the idea of meeting with Russian officials.

  19. The U.S. hires a security firm owned by a previous KGB director to guard its embassy in Moscow. That’s almost like the time we agreed to let them build parts of our Moscow embassy offsite… where they placed bugs all over the walls… and then we had to tear it down and build a new one.

  20. It looks like the Russian foreign ministry paid almost $400,000 to embassies around the world for the purpose of financing the 2016 campaign.

Courts/Justice:

  1. Trump’s nominee for a federal court seat fails to disclose that he’s married to senior lawyer in the White House. Brett Talley has also never tried a case and the ABA committee that evaluates appointees unanimously deemed him unqualified. Standard process is to have the ABA evaluate candidates before making an official nomination, and to pass over any candidates deemed to be unqualified.

  2. Trump adds five more names to his list of potential supreme court nominees even though there’s no vacant seat.

  3. Trump’s nominees to the courts are largely white men, with 91% being white and 81% being men (and 74% being both).

  4. The above will move the courts away from the trend of becoming more reflective of our national demographics and back toward the standard white male dominance of the past.

  5. Less than two weeks after Trump expresses frustration with the DOJ for not investigating Hillary Clinton, Jeff Sessions says they’ll look into a special prosecutor. Sessions later says there is no cause for a special investigation against Hillary.

  6. Just a reminder, in Sessions’ confirmation hearing, he said he’d recuse himself from any matters surrounding Clinton’s emails and the Clinton Foundation.

  7. The government legal team, funded by us taxpayers, defends Trump in four lawsuits around him not divesting from companies that could lead to conflict of interest, especially around foreign governments. The case they’re making is not that Trump didn’t do anything wrong, it’s that it isn’t unconstitutional for the president to earn money from foreign governments and officials while he’s in office.

  8. Chuck Grassley has decided to ignore the traditional blue slip rule around judiciary nominations. By bypassing this tradition, he’s able to load the courts with conservative judges without any input from a state’s Senators.

Healthcare:

  1. The Senate includes a repeal of the ACA mandate in their tax plan. It could save around $300 billion, but will also cost around 13 million people their healthcare coverage. We’d also see a drastic premium hike.

  2. Despite administration efforts to starve the ACA, almost 1.5 million people signed up in the first two weeks.

International:

  1. A sampling of what Asia thinks of us after Trump’s Asia trip:

    • “The U.S. has lost its leadership role,” said Jayant Menon, an economist at the Asian Development Bank. “And China is quickly replacing it.”

    • “At some point, the administration may begin to see that this was a strategic mistake and that dropping out of trade is not in the interest of American workers,” said Rufus Yerxa, president of the National Foreign Trade Council, a lobbying group that represents companies like Wal-Mart, Ford and Microsoft.

  1. Trump says that Air Force One once wasn’t allowed to land in the Philippines while Obama was traveling there because relations between the two countries were so bad. That never happened.

  2. European countries detect a waft of radiation in their airspace. It’s suspected to have originated in Russia.

  3. Trump and China’s President Xi Jinping disagree about North Korea. Trump wants denuclearization, but China wants to freeze North Korea’s nuclear program and for the U.S. in return to freeze military drills with South Korea.

  4. Some nations that are frustrated by trying to work with Trump’s administration are now working directly with some of our largest states and cities instead. They feel that no one in the White House knows anything about international issues.

Legislation/Congress:

  1. Five House Democrats introduce articles of impeachment against Trump. The articles include obstruction of justice, violations of the emoluments clauses, undermining the federal judiciary, and undermining freedom of the press.

  2. The bribery trial for Senator Bob Menendez ends in a mistrial, leaving open the possibility of a retrial.

  3. A bipartisan group of Senators introduce gun legislation to improve the background check system.

  4. Several members of Congress raise concerns about Trump’s nuclear powers. The Senate Foreign Affairs Committee is working on oversight measures over concerns about Trump’s stability.

Travel Ban/Immigration/Discrimination:

  1. The Trump administration begins taking steps to make it easier to seize private property around border lands to build the wall. Even though Congress hasn’t approved any funds for a wall.

  2. Cards Against Humanity buys border land in order to block the wall, and opens it up for their customers to contribute to the project in return for surprise holiday gifts. The program sells out in just a few hours.

  3. The number of new international students coming to the U.S. declined 7% this fall. 45% of campuses report a drop.

  4. A federal court allows part of the travel ban to take effect, banning certain refugees from coming to the U.S. All three of the attempted travel bans have been blocked at least in part.

  5. Australia votes overwhelmingly to legalize gay marriage.

  6. Kentucky tries to shut down their last remaining medical facility that provides abortions.

  7. Did you know? Taxpayers pay for sexual harassment settlements against members of Congress. So far we’ve paid $15 million to hide their sexual misconduct.

  8. Trump has threatened to withhold money from sanctuary cities, but a federal judge rules that the administration can’t do that.

  9. The DNC says they’ll accept the DACA applications that were delayed by the US Postal Service and thus missed the deadline.

  10. Elaine Duke capitulates to John Kelly’s request and agrees to give Haitians here with Temporary Protected Status (TPS) 18 months to leave the country. There are over 60,000 Haitians here on the program, many of whom now own homes and have children who were born here.

Climate/EPA:

  1. Trump sends a coalition of fossil fuel industry experts to the UN’s climate change summit in Bonn. They’re greeted with protests and are heckled during their presentation.

  2. Our only appearance at this summit was a presentation on how fossil fuels are vital to reduce poverty and save jobs. They basically say the economy is more important than the environment or climate, and don’t provide any leadership on climate-related issues. The U.S. used to be a leader at this summit.

  3. At the same summit, Canada and Mexico announce a new partnership with 15 U.S. states on climate issues, bypassing the Trump administration entirely.

  4. French President Macron says that with the U.S. refusing to finance the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), France will pay the U.S.’s share.

  5. As part of his ongoing efforts to reverse everything Obama did, Trump reverses Obama’s ban on importing elephant trophies, otherwise known as “body parts.” Elephants are endangered species, and Obama enacted the ban to discourage hunters from killing them. In addition, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) has already started allowing hunters to import lion body parts.

  6. After a huge public outcry, which seems to come as a big surprise to Trump, he puts this decision on hold.

  7. Trump plans to shrink Grand Staircase – Escalante by half and also plans to shrink Bears Ears. This will make him the first president to ever shrink a national monument designated by a previous president.

  8. The Keystone pipeline springs a leak in South Dakota, dumping 210,000 gallons of oil. Note that this is not the same Keystone XL pipeline that was delayed under Obama.

  9. After chemical companies ask the Trump administration to ignore the conclusions of studies over the past several years, the administration files a motion to extend the evaluation period by two years. Two years during which the use of three pesticides found to cause health issues will be continue.

  10. Puerto Rico update: Troops begin to pull out of Puerto Rico, along with supply helicopters that served communities that are cut off. More than half of homes still don’t have power and over 10% of homes still don’t have clean drinking water.

Budget/Economy:

  1. Paul Ryan puts Republican Representatives in blue states with high rates of state income tax in a tight spot. If they approve a tax bill that removes the state and local at deductions, it could put their reelection in jeopardy. If they don’t pass the bill, they’ll be ostracized by Republican leadership and Trump.

  2. But the bill passes the House anyway.

  3. The Senate version of the tax bill passes through committee and is expected to go to the floor for a vote in a few weeks. Here’s a summary of the two bills: http://cjrules.com/gop-tax-plan-fall-2017/

  4. The Senate doesn’t have Republican consensus on their version of the tax bill yet.

  5. Steve Louro resigns as regional finance director for New York’s Republican Party saying the tax bill will hurt the middle class and will hurt Republicans.

  6. At an event where Gary Cohn is interviewed in front of a gathering of CEOs, Cohn is surprised to find that very few CEOs plan to increase investment in their company or employees if they receive a tax cut. Billionaire Mark Cuban agrees that tax rates have almost no impact on investment.
  7. The House passes a defense policy bill to the tune of $700 billion, more than what Trump asked for and about $150 billion over their spending cap.

  8. The Wall Street Journal reports that manufacturing is up in the U.S. due to global growth and optimism, even though none of Trump’s promises have been implemented yet.

  9. Richard Cordray steps down as director of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB), leaving the agency’s future in question. The agency was created under Obama in response to the financial crisis with the purpose of protecting consumers from unscrupulous actions by financial institutions. Republicans have long criticized the agency.

  10. Trump asks for another $44 billion in disaster relief, and it’s criticized by leaders from all affected states for not being adequate. Relief for the victims of California’s wildfires isn’t even mentioned.

Elections:

  1. A fifth woman comes forward accusing Roy Moore of sexual misconduct, this time including assault. By the end of the week, eight women have accused him of sexual misconduct.

  2. Mitch McConnell urges Roy Moore to step down from the Alabama senatorial race, saying he believes the women who accused Moore of molesting minors.

  3. The Alabama GOP sticks with Roy Moore, though support is dropping.

  4. Senate Republicans continue to look at their options in Alabama, including having Luther Strange resign which would trigger a new special election. Sorry, but this just shows a lack of interest in the democratic process, IMO.

  5. Mitch McConnell suggests that Jeff Sessions could step down and run as a write-in candidate to replace Roy Moore.

  6. Pastors and party leaders in Alabama continue to support Moore and rationalize his actions.

  7. FoxNews fans break their Keurigs online after the company pulls its ads from the Hannity show as a result of Hannity continuing to support Roy Moore.

  8. Rush Limbaugh excuses Roy Moore’s conduct with teenagers by saying Moore was a Democrat at the time he engaged in the sexual misconduct.

  9. Alabamans receive robocalls from someone pretending to be a Washington Post reporter offering people money to lie about child molestation in order to frame Roy Moore.

Miscellaneous:

  1. Trump nominates a new HHS secretary to replace Tom Price. This time he nominates a former pharmaceutical executive, Alex Azar, who stepped down as president of Eli Lilly earlier this year.

  2. There’s another mass shooting, this time in California, after which Trump accidentally tweets condolences about the mass shooting that happened in Texas.

  3. In a break with tradition, Trump won’t personally greet the American Nobel laureates before they go to Sweden to receive their prizes.

  4. The administration will also break with tradition by discontinuing the White House Science Fair.

  5. The Trump Organization reported income of $9.5 billion last year to Crain’s, but federal filings indicate the number to be closer to $600 or $700 million.

  6. H.R. McMaster reportedly calls Trump a dope with the smarts of a kindergartener.

  7. In a 3-2 vote, the FCC loosens media ownership rules in order to pave the way for the merger between Sinclair and Tribune. Critics say this will lead to less diversity in media, but others say the existing rules are too strict for the new kinds of media.

  8. The FCC also votes to restrict and cap the Lifeline program introduced by Ronald Reagan. The program subsidizes phone services for the poor, so this could cut people off from society and employment. The program came under attack under Obama when the program was misattributed to him and labelled “Obamaphones”.  Seemed like a good idea under Reagan…
  9. Sexual misconduct accusations keep coming. Al Franken is the latest to be accused. A fellow USO performer says he groped and forcibly kissed her, and a woman who took a picture with him 10 years ago says he grabbed her butt. Franken apologizes to the first accuser both publicly and privately, and says he supports an ethics investigation.

Polls:

  1. The U.S. drops from number 1 to number 6 this year in the Anholt-GfK nation brand index study. This study reflects the global perception of different countries. We were the only top-10 country to see a decline. Our previous low was after George Bush was reelected in 2004 and we hit number 7.

  2. 52% of voters don’t like the Republican tax plans, and 25% approve of the plans. 61% think the wealthy will mostly benefit.

Week 42 in Trump

Posted on November 13, 2017 in Politics, Trump

Here’s my plug for the week:

We all hate money in politics. We all think it’s corrupt. Maybe we can come together to force Congress to do something about it. The Citizens United decision makes sure that elected officials spend more time fundraising than they do legislating. A recent poll shows we agree:

  • 81% of Democrats and 79% of Republicans think Congress needs to get money out of politics.
  • 78% think we need “sweeping new laws to reduce the influence of money in politics.”
  • 80% think that money in politics is a bigger problem now than ever before.
  • 93% think their elected officials listen to donors more than to voters.

I recently used OpenSecrets.org to look into the founder of a company I do business with. He gives millions every year to candidates and causes I oppose. Millions. I can’t match that. Not even close. The bottom 95% of us can’t match the top 5%. So let’s put a stop to it. Here are some (mostly bipartisan) places to start if you want to help get this done:

Thanks for indulging me. Here’s what happened this week in politics…

Russia:

Update: I learned belatedly that Russian Lawyer Natalia Veselnitskaya told NBC this week that she got some of the information she brought to the Trump Tower meeting with Don Jr. from Glenn Simpson. She received this information part of a case alleging money laundering against Russian company Prevezon in which Fusion GPS had been hired to do research.

  1. Here’s a recap of the Trump associates that we know had contacts with Russian officials during the campaign or transition: Paul Manafort, Rick Gates, Michael Cohen, Donald Trump Jr., Jared Kushner, George Papadopoulos, Carter Page, J.D. Gordon, Michael Flynn (and his son), Wilbur Ross, and Jeff Sessions. There were 21 known meetings and at least 30 reported meetings. Additional associates knew about the meetings, including Corey Lewandowski and Trump himself. Might not have been such a big deal if they just ‘fessed up in the first place.
  2. Russian lawyer Natalia Veselnitskaya says that Trump Jr. asked for evidence that donations were made to Clinton’s campaign using money that had evaded U.S. taxes. She didn’t have any such evidence.
  3. Veselnitskaya also says that Trump Jr. said they’d look into rescinding the Magnitsky Act if Trump won the election.
  4. Robert Mueller interviews Stephen Miller, who attended the meeting in March of 2016 where Papadopoulos said he could arrange a meeting between Trump and Putin.
  5. Mueller questions witnesses about a meeting in September 2016 between Flynn and Representative Dana Rohrabacher (R-Cal), bringing a member of Congress into the probe for the first time. We don’t know what was discussed yet, but Kevin McCarthy (R-Cal), once said, “There’s two people I think Putin pays: Rohrabacher and Trump.”
  6. Corey Lewandowski, who previously had no recollection of conversations about Russia, now says Carter Page’s testimony has refreshed his memory and that he knew of Page’s trip to Russia in 2016 in which Page talked about the campaign with Russian officials.
  7. Trump’s bodyguard testifies that while Trump was in Russia, Trump’s hosts offered to send 5 women to his hotel room but Trump declined.
  8. Mueller requests documents relevant to the proposed Trump Tower in Moscow.
  9. Mueller has enough evidence on Flynn and his son to charge them both. Charges include money laundering, lying to federal agents, and what sounds like conspiracy to kidnap. Flynn allegedly agreed to forcibly remove a Turkish cleric from the U.S. to Turkey for $15 million.
  10. Jared Kushner didn’t disclose on his financial disclosure that a company he cofounded was partially funded by a Russian tech leader (Yuri Milner). Kushner said he never relied on Russian funding for his business ventures.
  11. Unrelated to Russia specifically, the DOJ seeks a plea agreement with Manafort’s son-in-law, Jeffrey Yohai, related to financial crimes involved with Manafort’s crimes.
  12. A federal judge places a gag order on the Manafort and Gates cases, forbidding them from making any public statements that could be prejudicial.
  13. Russian trolls made a final propaganda push as soon as our polls opened on Nov. 8, 2016. They used accounts that they had started years ago to build large followings on social media. These “sleeper” accounts issued very targeted and metered tweets with praise for Trump and contempt for Clinton. This lasted from the time the first polls opened to the time the last ones closed.
  14. Several of the Russian troll Twitter accounts that posted about our election also posted about Brexit, with a big push on voting day in Great Britain.
  15. On his Asia trip, Trump reiterates that he takes Putin at his word when he says Russia didn’t meddle in our elections, contradicting the findings of our intelligence agencies. He says again that there was no collusion.
  16. Trump then flip-flops and says that he believes Putin believes he didn’t meddle in the election, but that Trump himself is with our own intelligence agencies.
  17. Previous intelligence officials say they think Trump is being played by Putin.
  18. A group of House and Senate Republicans are working to discredit Mueller in order to force him out of the investigation. They say we’re in danger of a coup d’etat. They’re trying to tie Mueller to the 2010 Uranium One sale, Bill Clinton’s speeches in Russia, and the Steele dossier. The main players here are Representatives Matt Gaetz (R-FL), Andy Biggs (R-AZ), and Louie Gohmert (R-TX).
  19. It’s reported that Trump asked CIA Director Pompeo to meet with a conspiracy theorist who claims that the DNC leaked their own emails instead of the Russians hacking and releasing them. Even Pompeo says that’s wrong, though he once testified that Russia was unsuccessful in its attempts to meddle in our elections. The CIA later walked that back.

Courts/Justice:

  1. A year after his election, Trump has filled eight appellate judges, more than any other president at this point in their term since Nixon. A ninth is in the midst of approval right now.
  2. Just before Trump took office, lawyers joining his administration came up with a plan to fill federal appeals courts with young and conservative judges in order to take advantage of this chance to reshape our judiciary. They started by filling open seats where Democrats in Trump-supporting states are up for re-election next year so they’d feel pressure to approve his nominees.
  3. The Senate Judiciary committee approves Brett Talley, nominated by Trump for a lifetime judgeship. Talley is a lawyer and far-right blogger who has never tried a case.

Healthcare:

  1. The White House prepares an executive order that would loosen the requirement that all Americans have health insurance.
  2. The attempts at discouraging people from signing up for the ACA aren’t working. A record number of people signed up in the first week, with 600,000 signing up in just the first four days. Enrollment this year lasts half as long as last year, though some states will allow signups into January.
  3. The Department of Health and Human Services says states can require Medicaid recipients to work in order to receive benefits even though over 70% of recipients are disabled and many of them can’t work.
  4. In a referendum, Maine voters vote to expand Medicaid under the ACA. Maine’s governor, Paul LePage, has refused the expansion ever since the ACA passed, and now says he’ll refuse to implement the voters’ referendum.
  5. Even though Notre Dame fought the ACA requirement to cover birth control in its insurance plans, the school announces they’ll continue coverage through a third party, just like they have ever since the ACA passed.
  6. Five states file a preliminary injunction against the rollback of the birth control mandate of the ACA, calling it unconstitutional and discriminatory.

International:

  1. Trumps spends the week in Asia, meeting with his counterparts in Japan, China, South Korea, Vietnam, and the Philippines.
  2. Trump asks Japan’s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe if Japan could start making cars in the United States. Which theyve been doing for decades.
  3. Trump says Japan could shoot down North Korea’s missiles if they bought American military equipment.
  4. Trump says he doesn’t blame China for what he perceives as one-sided trade deals; he blames previous administrations pretty much for being spineless.
  5. Trump meets with the Philippines’ Duterte on the last days of his trip, ending his trip the way it started—amid protests.
  6. Last week, I missed reporting that the Prime Minister of Lebanon resigned, citing an inability to unify the different religious factions of his government. Now rumors abound that Saudi Arabia is behind this and that the prime minister is a prisoner there. There’s speculation that Saudi Arabia is making a bolder move against Iran.
  7. The Trump administration imposes new travel sanctions on Cuba, rolling back Obama’s opening up of travel to the country. Americans are once again restricted on why they can travel there, and on where they can stay and spend their money in Cuba.
  8. The American Foreign Service Association (AFSA) leader says Trump is hurting diplomacy by cutting senior diplomats and officials in the State Department. The expertise and experience of the exiting officials will be hard (if not impossible) to replace.
  9. Interest in joining the Foreign Service has declined steeply this year.
  10. On top of all that, Tillerson announces plans to offer more buyouts to staff.
  11. A 7.3 earthquake shocks the Iraq/Iran border, killing more than 450.
  12. After spending 10 months learning about the Middle East, Trump’s team begins drafting their peace plan.

Legislation/Congress:

  1. Paul Ryan sets a new record for the most closed rules in a session with a total of 49. A closed rule process prevents legislators from proposing amendments to a bill, and Ryan hasn’t let one bill go through the amendment process. He’s the only speaker in modern history to completely forego the open process. So enough already with the “Democrats are obstructing” complaint.
  2. Senate Democrats introduce the Assault Weapons Ban of 2017, a bill to “ban the sale, transfer, manufacture and importation of military-style assault weapons and high-capacity ammunition magazines.”
  3. Senators plan to draft a bill that would force all military branches to report domestic violence instances to the National Instant Criminal Background Check System. The system failed at many points to prevent the Sutherland Springs shooter from obtaining a weapon. The Air Force didn’t report the shooter’s domestic violence background, and the Pentagon says that military branches have failed to report the outcomes of criminal cases to the background check system for decades.

Travel Ban/Immigration/Discrimination:

  1. The DHS ends Temporary Protected Status (TPS) for Nicaraguans who were allowed into the U.S. in 1998 after Nicaragua was hit by a hurricane. Their status has been routinely renewed for the 19 years they’ve been here, but now they either need to leave or apply for permanent status.
  2. Under the same review, the DHS allows Hondurans here under the same program to stay, with their status to be evaluated at a later time. There are also a number of Haitians and Salvadorans here under TPS.
  3. Trump’s Chief of Staff, John Kelly, puts pressure on Elaine Duke of the DHS to expel the Hondurans who are in the U.S. under TPS, but she declines.
  4. There are around 300,000 immigrants here under TPS who could be deported if their status isn’t renewed. They’ve been here long enough to build lives, careers, and families, including around 275,000 children born in the U.S.
  5. Dozens of DACA applications were delayed by the Postal Service and arrived a day late, even though they were sent weeks in advance. So far, those applications have been rejected, but lawyers are suing to get them accepted.
  6. Under Trump, an estimated 1,400 veterans have been deported.
  7. Illustrating the growing white nationalist sentiment in Europe and the U.S., 60,000 white nationalists march on Poland’s independence day. They want to cleanse Poland of Jews, Muslims, and gay people.

Climate/EPA:

  1. Syria announces they’ll join the Paris climate agreement, leaving the U.S. as the sole climate change denier.
  2. Trump wasn’t invited to the climate change summit later this year in France.
  3. A proposal from the Trump administration would force markets to guarantee profits to coal-fired and nuclear power plants that aren’t doing well in competitive electricity markets. This is most interesting because the GOP has long complained about subsidies for renewable energies while at the same time fossil fuel subsidies have been through the roof.
  4. Senator Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) proposes legislation to open part of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR) to drilling. Because it’s part of the Budget Resolution, it only requires 51 votes to pass in the Senate.
  5. Senate Democrats call for an investigation into the EPA for their plan to remove independent scientists from advisory boards and replace them instead with scientists from the industries they’re supposed to oversee (fossil fuels and chemicals, mostly).
  6. Documents show that Duke Energy edited reports from professors they hired to study the impact of coal ash ponds on groundwater safety. The professors were supposed to work independently of the company, but emails show they coordinated their work.
  7. Despite last week’s report that manmade climate change is the real deal, the EPA’s Scott Pruitt continues to dismantle the Clean Power Plan. Pruitt says the report is part of the ongoing climate debate.
  8. Filling the void at the federal level, a group of U.S. businessmen and state and local government officials attend the Climate Change Conference in Bonn, Germany, where they showcase their coalition’s plans to meet our commitments to mitigate climate change.

Budget/Economy:

  1. According to the Tax Policy Center’s corrected analysis of the tax plan:

In 2018, 76% of taxpayers would see a tax cut of $1,900 on average, and 7% would see an increase of around $2,100. The top 1% of earners would see the biggest increase. In 2027, 59% of taxpayers would see a tax cut of about $2,300, and 25% would see an increase of about $2,100. The lowest earning 25% would have the greatest percent decrease, while those earning in the 90-95th income percentile would see the greatest increase (largely due to the loss of deductions like state and local taxes). The number of people using itemized deductions would fall by 75% in 2018 and by 65% in 2027.

  1. The CBO says the tax plan will add $1.7 trillion to the debt over the next decade.
  2. The tax plan would discourage post-grad work for college students by taxing them on their tuition waivers.
  3. The Senate releases their tax package, which differs from the House version on some key issues:
    • Delays cutting the corporate tax from 35% to 20% until 2019.
    • Keeps seven brackets instead of reducing them to four.
    • Keeps the estate tax but also doubles the exemption amount.
    • Keeps the mortgage interest deduction.
    • Eliminates the state and local tax deduction.
  1. Trump says that the new tax plan would kill him.
  2. Over 400 of America’s wealthiest sign on to a letter to Congress urging them not to cut their taxes.
  3. In revealing the ways the wealthy save their money, the Paradise Papers also show that U.S. Universities send money overseas to avoid taxes, using offshore accounts to invest in things like oil, gas, and coal.
  4. After months of putting up with Trump’s efforts to renegotiate NAFTA, agricultural groups start fighting to save the agreement. NAFTA has been beneficial to the U.S. ag business, just as TPP would have been. According to one association leader, “The importance of trade to economic growth in the food and ag sector is so fundamental that there tends to be an assumption that everyone understands that.” Obviously, not everybody does.
  5. Hours after Trump says (on his Pacific Rim tour) that we won’t be “taken advantage of anymore” by poor trade agreements, 11 Pacific Rim nations announce key agreements on the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) free trade agreement without us.
  6. China also moves ahead on a potential deal with 16 other Asian countries, and the European Union and Japan are working on trade deals with a group of South American countries that includes Brazil and Argentina.
  7. The Department of Education plans to offer buyouts to 255 employees after already cutting about 8% of its staff this year. Betsy DeVos’s budget cuts $9.2 billion from the education budget and gets rid of teacher training and college prep programs. Of course it invests in charter schools and vouchers. Congress will likely restore any cuts she makes.
  8. The DOJ tells AT&T and Time Warner that if they want their merger to go through, they have to sell off CNN.

Elections:

  1. Democrats make gains in state and local elections across the country, winning the top offices in New Jersey and Virginia, several mayoral elections, and turning one (possibly two) state houses Democrat (there are some recounts in VA). People of color, especially women of color, and openly LGBT people make big gains in elected office.
  2. Four women accuse Republican candidate for Alabama Senate, Roy Moore, of sexual misconduct that allegedly occurred when they were teenagers and Moore was in his 30s.
  3. Trump and Republicans continue to support Moore, using a variety of justifications: They call the accusations unproven; they cast doubt on the women’s reliability (though Moore’s colleagues also say he dated teenagers while in his 30s); and my favorite, a pastor says that Joseph and Mary had the same age difference.
  4. Republicans consider alternatives to Moore, like fielding a write-in candidate or pushing back the election date. They did stop fundraising for Moore, and Mitch McConnell says Moore needs to step down if the allegations are true.
  5. Remember Trump’s voter fraud commission? Committee member Matt Dunlap files a federal suit against the commission saying that Democrats on the committee aren’t being kept apprised of what’s going on.

Miscellaneous:

  1. It’s amazing how quickly rumors sped around that Rand Paul’s attacker was a deranged Democrat. Turns out they just had neighbor issues. But Paul is hurt pretty badly and won’t be back to work for a bit.
  2. The U.S. is one of only three countries that protects the right to bear arms in its constitution.
  3. Trump says the Texas shooting is a mental health issue. Of note, in February the GOP Congress and Trump rescinded a rule that would prevent some mentally disabled people from getting guns.
  4. Representative Ted Lieu (R-Cal) walks out of a moment of silence in the House for the victims of the Texas shooting. Lieu says he can no longer stay silent about gun violence and it’s time for Congress to take action. His short time in office has seen three of the worst mass shootings in the U.S.
  5. After a cooling off period, talks stall in Congress over banning bump stocks like the one used in the Las Vegas shootings. Bump stocks are also being sold again after a brief pause.
  6. Remember when Carl Icahn quietly left his role as Trump’s special advisor on regulatory reform? Well, this week New York state attorneys issue his company several subpoenas around his actions in the market during the time he was advising Trump.
  7. Trump ends the Warrior Canine Connection program, which trains service dogs for wounded veterans and their families. They’ve been partnering with military facilities since 2009. Trainers and puppy raisers at Fort Belvoir and the Walter Reed National Military Medical Center were given less than a day to vacate their offices with no reason given.
  8. Mental health professional send a “duty to warn” letter to Congress about Trump’s fitness for office.
  9. The FBI database of gun buyers is missing millions of criminal and mental health records that would prevent some people from getting guns. Agencies responsible for sending the information simply haven’t been doing it.
  10. And now for a little good news, the DOJ is liquidating Bernie Madoff’s companies and distributing recovered funds to his victims. They’ll likely get back about 75% of their losses. It’s still a loss, but at least not a complete loss.

Polls:

  1. 8% of Trump voters say they’d vote for a generic Democrat in 2020.
  2. After Virginia’s elections, 51% of voters say their vote was partially because of Trump. 34% voted in opposition Trump; 17% voted in support of Trump.
  3. Only 32% of voters in counties that Trump won think the country is better off now; 41% say it’s worse off; and 53% don’t think Trump has a clear agenda.
  4. 65% of Americans don’t think Trump has accomplished much as president.
  5. The percentage of Americans who are very concerned about Trump-Russia contacts rises from 27% in July to 44% today.

Week 41 in Trump

Posted on November 6, 2017 in Politics, Trump

Getty Images

Another mass shooting ends the week, this one being the fourth most deadly shooting in the U.S. and a real small-town tragedy. The shooter, who was discharged from the Air Force for bad conduct around a domestic dispute, entered a church in small Texas town and killed 26 people. On his way out, a local shot at him and he took off in his car. The brave local chased him, the shooter crashed his car, and he was later found dead. If the Air Force had correctly registered his domestic assault charge, the shooter might not have been able to get his hands on a gun.

Here’s what else happened in week 41…

Russia:

Mueller’s Charges and Legal Documents:

The first of the charges in Mueller’s investigation come out, along with evidentiary documents. Here’s what comes from all that:

  1. Mueller unveils 12 counts against Paul Manafort and his associate Rick Gates, including conspiracy against the U.S., conspiracy to launder money, FARA violations, false statements, and failure to report financial information.
  2. Trump tweets a response that this shows there was “no collusion,” which might have been a little premature, because an hour later George Papadopoulos, the Trump campaign’s former foreign policy advisor, pleads guilty to making a false statement to the FBI.
  3. Documents show that Corey Lewandowski was also involved in discussions with Papadopoulos about Russia meetings.
  4. Carter Page (also a foreign policy advisor to the campaign) says he spoke about Russia with Papadopoulos after originally denying it, and he also testifies that he told Sessions about a trip he took to Russia during the campaign. During this July 2016 trip, he met with Russian government officials. Remember, Sessions testified under oath to the Senate Intelligence Committee that he didn’t have any knowledge of Russian contact with the campaign.
  5. Page emailed campaign staff about his findings from the trip, which were read at testimony
  6. An email from Manafort to a campaign official says about the trips to Russia,We need someone to communicate that DT is not doing these trips. It should be someone low level in the campaign so as not to send any signal.”
  7. Manafort has a trial date in May of 2018.
  8. Rick Gates was also being paid by the RNC for political strategy services.
  9. Sam Clovis, who was about to go up for confirmation to the post of top scientist of the Department of Agriculture (even though he has no science background, but that’s another story), withdraws his nomination. It turns out he testified to the grand jury the previous week, which the White House didn’t find out until the media broke the news.
  10. An email chain shows that Clovis discussed the potential Russia meetings with Papadopoulos, and Clovis is referenced in the court filing. And according to Papadopoulos’ plea agreement, Clovis impressed on him that relations with Russia were a primary focus of their foreign policy efforts.
  11. Here’s a timeline of Russian contact to help you keep it all straight.
  12. The Papadopoulos plea agreement and supporting documents reveal:
    • He met with a Russian agent (the Professor) in March of 2016 (after Papadopoulos knew he would be a foreign policy advisor for Trump’s campaign).
    • The Professor was only interested in him after finding out he was working with Trump’s campaign.
    • In April of 2016, the Professor told him that Russian agents have dirt on Clinton (a month after Papadopoulos joined Trump’s campaign).
    • The Professor then told him that the Russians had emails on Clinton, thousands of emails.
    • A person at the March 2016 meeting where Papadopoulos brought up meeting with the Putin says Trump didn’t dismiss the idea but Jeff Sessions did object.
    • In July 2016, Papadopoulos sent an email to his Russian contact the saying the meeting had been approved.
    • The above implies that the Trump campaign knew about the hacked emails long before they were released. And while both Trump and Jeff Sessions deny any knowledge of contacts between the Trump campaign and Russia, the latest court documents indicate otherwise.
    • Papadopoulos has been cooperating with the investigation since July 2017.
  1. Jeff Sessions led the foreign policy group that Papadopoulos was part of.
  2. Interesting note: It was Jared Kushner and Ivanka who pushed for Trump to hire Manafort to the campaign.
  3. Also of note: Despite attempts by certain parties to draw the dossier into question, none of the charges revealed this week stemmed from the dossier.
  4. Trump, conservative media, and some GOP politicians try to deflect attention off the charges by belittling Papadopoulos’ role in the campaign, by saying Manaforts crimes occurred long before Manafort was part of the campaign, and by focusing attention on Obamacare, Hillary Clinton, Democrats, the Fusion GPS dossier, tax cuts, the uranium deal, and Mueller’s (made up) conflict of interest.
  5. Jared Kushner provides Mueller with documents related to his potential role in obstructing justice.
  6. Representative Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.) introduces a House resolution saying Mueller has a conflict of interest because he worked at the FBI with James Comey and he worked there when the Uranium One deal went through. A deal that had nothing to do with Mueller or the FBI. How did Mueller go from the perfect investigator for all sides to being compromised in the GOP’s view?
  7. Tony Podesta steps down from his role at The Podesta Group. Even though the firm wasn’t named in the indictments and so far there are no accusations of wrong-doing, they worked with Manafort in the past to help improve the Ukrainian government’s image.

And The Rest of Russia Things:

  1. I‘m compiling a list of the fake stories and ads pushed by Russian troll farms to interfere with our elections just to see how many I saw last year. Here’s the first few. Feel free to add more in the comments if you know of any I missed.
  2. And since we’re on fake news, former FBI agent Clint Watts says Russia’s been using this strategy to manipulate us since 2014. He testifies again to the Senate this week.
  3. A Russian troll farm created a persona named Jenna Abrams in 2014. She built a solid base and, once established, she began posting divisive propaganda. Russia created a fake “real American” who showed up in most major news outlets.
  4. Members of the Trump campaign followed Russian accounts on Twitter and shared their posts.
  5. Facebook, Twitter, and Google testify in three hearings to a Senate Judiciary sub-committee. Here’s what we learn there:
    • Russian trolls used Facebook accounts to instigate violence against social and political groups, including undocumented immigrants, Muslims, police officers, Black Lives Matter activists, and more.
    • Facebook exposed Russia-linked pages to 126 million Americans, slightly less than the number that actually voted.
    • The posts by Russian trolls focused on our divisions in order to spread discord—primarily around race, religion, gun rights, and LGBTQ issues.
    • The posts also targeted users based on where they live, race, religion, and political leanings.
    • Instagram exposed Russian ads to millions of their users also.
  1. Russian interests hold large stakes in Twitter and Facebook. Documents show that Yuri Milner, a Russian tech leader, invested in Facebook and Twitter through a Kushner associate and he has a stake in a company co-owned by Kushner.
  2. Russian hacking didn’t stop with U.S. Democrats. They targeted thousands of national and international government officials and defense contractors during a multi-year attempt to break into email accounts worldwide. They mostly targeted the U.S. and Ukraine.
  3. The DOJ says they have enough evidence to charge six Russian government officials who were involved in the DNC email hack.
  4. Billionaire and conservative funder Robert Mercer sells his stake in Breitbart to his daughter and steps down from his company in an effort to distance himself from Trump and the Russia probe. Mercer was also a big funder for Cambridge Analytica, which provided big data and demographic targeting services for the Trump campaign.
  5. Secretary of Commerce Wilbur Ross has a stake in a shipping venture with Putin’s son-in-law, which Ross didn’t disclose during his confirmation process.
  6. It’s proven that Guccifer 2.0 modified some of the campaign emails leaked on Wikileaks.

Courts/Justice:

  1. After the New York City terror attack, Trump calls our justice system a joke and a laughing stock. He then calls for the terrorist to be sent to Gitmo, but then recants when he learns that our justice system is actually faster and more efficient.
  2. Trump interferes in two cases: one for the New York terrorist and one for Bowe Bergdahl.
    • Trump calls for the terrorist to be sentenced to death, which experts say will now likely not happen in order to avoid the perception of the president having undue influence.
    • The judge in the Bowe Bergdahl trial gave him a dishonorable discharge with no time served, which Trump criticized as light. But the judge was likely trying to prevent the appearance of undue influence after Trump made inflammatory comments about the case, which Bergdahl’s lawyers continually argued made it impossible to have a fair trial.
  1. Trump’s influence over the DOJ is further questioned after he refuses to rule out firing Jeff Sessions if he won’t investigate the things Trump wants investigated. He wants Sessions to look into his adversaries (mostly Hillary Clinton, Bernie Sanders, and Elizabeth Warren), setting up the DOJ for a breach of protocol if they follow through on it.
  2. While Congress is trying to pass more restrictive abortion bills, a federal court just struck down two abortion restrictions passed in Alabama
  3. A Cleveland court throws out all charges against 12 protestors at the 2016 Republican National Convention.

Healthcare:

  1. Based on conflicting actions coming from the White House, there seems to be a battle going on over whether to save the ACA and if so, by how much:
    • The administration lets the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) send out notices with ACA enrollment reminders, man their call centers, and work to enroll the currently uninsured. They also made the plans publicly available a week in advance so consumers could preview them.
    • At the same time, the administration ended ACA enrollment partnerships across the country, ended insurance subsidies, discouraged Congress from passing a bill that would stabilize the markets, and cut the budget for outreach and assistance by 90%.
  1. The IRS announces that it will continue to fully enforce the mandate that everyone have insurance.
  2. The House and Senate agree to fund the Children’s Health Insurance Program (CHIP), but disagree on how to pay for it. The House version would be funded by 700,000 low-income people losing their insurance.

International:

  1. U.S. forces capture one of the terrorists who attacked the Benghazi compound in 2012.
  2. In defending the lack of staffing at the State Department, Trump says that the only who matters is him because he makes all the policy.
  3. The U.S. pulls out of the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI), which is an effort to fight corruption in the energy market. The EITI requires countries to disclose fossil fuel and mining revenues.
  4. Trump starts his trip to Asia with a few days in Hawaii, where he’s greeted by hundreds of protestors.
  5. Saudi Arabia arrests several princes in what they call an anti-corruption crackdown, but what really appears to be a consolidation of power.
  6. White House officials say that the Office of the Special Representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan might be reinstated. Trump got rid of the office shortly after taking office himself.
  7. Yet another set of confidential documents is leaked. The Paradise Papers include information about tax havens for the super rich and where they keep their money. The information touches on celebrities, government officials, Trump associates and cabinet members, businessmen, and corporations. Here’s a list, if you’re interested.

Legislation/Congress:

  1. Trump signs a bill that repeals the Obama-era consumer protections that prevented financial institutions from forcing customers into arbitration clauses, preventing legal action in cases of wrongdoing against consumers.
  2. Senators Mark Warner (D-Va.) and Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) propose a bill that would require more disclosure in social media ads, specifically around who’s funding them.
  3. Here’s a little roundup of what Congress has been doing around women’s reproductive health. Do you see the problem here?
    • Making it harder to get birth control, and then…
    • Making it harder to get reproductive health and counseling services, and then…
    • Making it harder to get an abortion, and then…
    • Making it harder to adopt unwanted or orphaned children.

Travel Ban/Immigration/Discrimination:

  1. A federal judge blocks Trump’s transgender ban in the military from being fully enforced.
  2. Trump says Congress should end an immigration lottery program that the New York City terrorist used to come to the U.S., blaming the program on Chuck Schumer. Schumer was one of the Gang of 8 that worked on a bill to get rid of the program a few years ago. The Senate passed the bill, but it didn’t get through the GOP-led House.
  3. Lawyers sue to have ICE release the 10-year-old undocumented immigrant with cerebral palsy who was detained when she came out of gall bladder surgery. She’s finally released later in the week.
  4. After 62 venues refuse to host Milo Yiannopolous, he’s forced to cancel his public appearance.
  5. New York City passes a series of “sanctuary” bills to protect undocumented immigrants and to limit how city employees can work with ICE.
  6. Contractors that are building the wall prototypes south of San Diego are afraid they’ll lose business because of it (and they will). They want the DOJ to sue to prevent state and local governments from denying them contracts or divesting from their companies.
  7. These same contractors also want to be reimbursed for any security they provide and they want local authorities to provide protection as well.
  8. Mar-a-Lago gets permission to hire 70 foreign workers for the 2017-2018 season.

Climate/EPA:

  1. The White House approves a report concluding that climate change is real and manmade. At odds with their current stance on the subject. According to the report:

“Every day we see more evidence that climate change is dramatically affecting our planet. This week, we found out the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere reached its highest level in 800,000 years in 2016. The majority of Americans understand the seriousness of climate change, and they demand action. We need to invest in clean energy alternatives to fossil fuels and work toward a 100 percent clean energy system—not continue to let the fossil fuel industry make billions in profits and buy out politicians while destroying our planet.”

  1. The EPA bans scientists who receive grant money from serving on advisory panels, even though these advisors sign an agreement to not take any grant money during their time on the panel. It is expected that Scott Pruitt will replace these scientists with industry officials who have previously fought against EPA standards.
  2. New Mexico defeats an effort to remove jaguars from their endangered species list.
  3. The hole in the ozone layer shrinks to its smallest size since 1988, partly due to warmer weather and partly due to a united global effort to reduce ozone-depleting chemicals.
  4. The Trump administration has so far failed three times to repeal Obama’s methane emissions rules, foiled once by the Senate and twice by the courts. This has the gas and oil industry working to fill the void by creating voluntary programs to address the problem of emissions.

Budget/Economy:

  1. House Republicans release their tax package. I listed out a few details in a separate post because these recaps are getting long!
  2. Small businesses come out against the plan. 60% of Americans don’t think businesses will spend their tax savings on employees. Only 12% of Americans approve of the plan.
  3. Trump nominates Jerome Powell to head the Fed. He’s already on the board, so likely won’t change course much. He might be a little more business friendly.
  4. Out-of-work coal miners have training for new jobs freely available to them, but they aren’t taking it because they think their coal jobs are coming back.
  5. With monumental rebuilding efforts going on as a result of fires, floods, and hurricanes in the U.S., Trump slaps tariffs on imports of certain Canadian lumber, which will certainly cause an increase in costs. And it’s increasing tensions in already tense NAFTA negotiations.
  6. Trump throws a little influence into the stock market by tweeting “Would very much appreciate Saudi Arabia doing their IPO of Aramco with the New York Stock Exchange. Important to the United States!”

Elections:

  1. All eyes are on Virginia and New Jersey elections on the 7th, though there are state elections around the country going on at the same time.
  2. In what could be a case of the second worst timing ever (right behind the timing of Comey’s re-opening the Clinton email case last November), the week before the Virginia elections Donna Brazile releases an excerpt from her book where she implies that the DNC and Clinton campaigns colluded. It turns out she didn’t reveal anything we didn’t already know two years ago, and that both the Bernie and Hillary campaigns were made the same offer by the DNC. It probably wasn’t a fair deal, but the elections weren’t rigged. Her book comes out this week… on election day.

Miscellaneous:

  1. Some Fox employees express embarrassment and frustration over their network’s (nonexistent) coverage of the Russia charges revealed this week, with many saying they want to quit.
  2. An outgoing Twitter employee becomes a hero for a day when they briefly shut down Trump’s Twitter account.
  3. Far right media manufacture an antifa uprising for the weekend calling it a planned civil war. When the Civil War doesn’t happen, that same media makes fun of antifa for failing.
  4. Rand Paul‘s neighbor assaults him in his yard, breaking some ribs and bruising his lung. The reason for the attack isn’t yet known, though the neighbor is cooperating with police.
  5. Over half of Trump’s nominees have close ties to the industries they’re supposed to regulate.
  6. Bush Jr. and Sr. release a book in which Sr. calls Trump a blowhard and Jr. says Trump just fans anger and doesn’t understand the job.

Polls:

  1. Trump’s approval rating in the Gallup poll hits an all-time low of 33%.
  2. Almost 80% of Trump voters think he shouldn’t leave office even if the Russia allegations are proven. Even so, the number of Americans who think he should be impeached is greater than the number who think he shouldn’t be.
  3. Nearly half of Americans think Trump committed a crime.
  4. An ABC/WaPo poll says that 65% of Americans don’t think Trump has accomplished much.
  5. Trump’s “enemy of the people” rhetoric is sticking with some. 63% of Republicans think the press is the enemy of the people, followed by 38% of independents, and 11% of Democrats.

GOP Tax Plan, Fall 2017

Posted on November 6, 2017 in Taxes

Here are summaries of both the House and Senate tax bills. The general consensus is that taxes will go down for everyone in the short term, but will increase for most middle and lower income earners in the long term. In the Senate version, many of the changes expire for individual taxes, but they don’t for corporate taxes. So in the long run, big corporations and the wealthy will see big tax savings, but the rest of Americans will likely see hikes.

The House Bill:

The House Republicans released their tax plan, which was supposed to simplify the tax code but doesn’t really seem to do that. Here are some of the highlights of the plan. I find the last two particularly interesting.

  • Keeps the 39.6% tax rate for the wealthiest ($1 million and over in income for married couples)
  • Caps the mortgage interest deduction for newly purchased homes at $500,000 (down from $1 million)
  • Allows only up to $10,000 of property tax to be deducted from federal taxes
  • Increases standard deductions
  • Consolidates the tax brackets (this will be good for some, not so good for others)
  • Expands child and dependent tax credits
  • Eliminates deductions for student loans and medical expenses
  • Eliminates the adoption tax credit
  • Eliminates the state and local tax deduction
  • Eliminates the deduction for your tax preparer
  • Eliminates deductions for losses from theft and disasters
  • Eliminates deductions for moving expenses and biking to work
  • Repeals the Alternative Minimum Tax (ATM)
  • No changes to 401Ks or charitable contribution rules
  • Lowers the corporate tax rate to 20% and pass-through tax rate to 25%
  • Caps interest deductions at 30% of interest paid
  • Places a one-time tax on repatriated foreign business profits and there’s an eight-year repatriation payout
  • Abolishes the tax credit for electric cars (though car makers have already expanded their lines and can’t turn back now)
  • Raises the retirement age by two years
  • Removes tax deductions for alimony
  • Repeals the Johnson Act, allowing religious officials to promote candidates and policies
  • Codifies the religious definition of life: “An unborn child means a child in utero.” And “A child in utero means a member of the species Homo sapiens, at any stage of development, who is carried in the womb.”
  • Doubles the estate tax exemption immediately and repeals the tax completely in 2024. 70% of Americans think they’ll be affected; 75% think this tax could force the sale of family businesses and farms. In actuality, 2 in 1000 deaths result in any estate tax.

The Senate Bill:

This bill is very similar to the House bill but with a few new surprises:

  • Delays the corporate tax cut by a year
  • Reduces taxes for oil companies with foreign operations
  • Reduces taxes for beer, wine, and liquor producers
  • Repeals the ACA mandate, which would raise premiums and knock millions of people off insurance
  • Fully repeals state and local tax deductions (the House repeal is partial)
  • Keeps the mortgage interest deduction
  • Maintains seven tax brackets instead of reducing to four
  • Puts an expiration date on individual tax changes
  • Gives additional deductions to pass-through businesses, but they expire
  • Keeps deductions for medical and college expenses
  • Expands tax-free 529 savings accounts to include K-12 instead of just college expenses
  • Doesn’t repeal the estate tax
  • Gives deductions to new investments for corporations
  • Raises the threshold for the ATM instead of getting rid of it completely
  • Doubles the deductable amount for teachers to by supplies
  • Keeps deductions for education and tuition waivers
  • Increases allowable medical deductions
  • Opens up the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge for drilling
  • Increases the amount of time you must live in your home before getting a break on capital gains

Running List of Fake Stories

Posted on November 6, 2017 in Election 2016

Just out of my own curiosity, I’m compiling a list of the fake news stories and political propaganda pushed by Russian troll farms during and after the 2016 elections. Interestingly, the propaganda wasn’t necessarily designed to make anyone change their minds. The purpose was more to reinforce negative feelings about some “other” group or person in order to further sow division and mistrust in the electorate. The Russian ads were designed to appeal primarily to “voters upset over illegal immigration, coal miner’s problems, gun ownership, African-American political activism, the rising prominence of Muslims in the U.S.”

Well played, Russian trolls. It sure worked.

I’ll keep adding to this list as I find more stories. But please remember that THESE ARE ALL FALSE STORIES!

  1. A planned U.S. military exercise in Texas, called Jade Helm, was actually a plot to take over the state.
  2. The Pope endorsed Trump. Conversely, the Pope endorsed Hillary.
  3. Denzel Washington supported Trump. Also Brad Pitt supported Trump.
  4. Hillary Clinton and John Podesta were running a pedophile ring from the basement of a pizzeria. (A pizzeria, by the way, that didn’t even have a basement.)
  5. George Soros said he’d fund black hate groups.
  6. Fake voting ballots for Clinton were found in an Ohio warehouse.
  7. A leaked video showed voter fraud and ballot stuffing in the Democratic primaries.
  8. Clinton received debate questions for the first presidential debate a week in advance.
  9. Monica Lewinksi (and Melania Trump, for that matter) said they’re voting for Hillary.
  10. Clinton’s campaign paid Jay-Z and Beyonce $62 million to perform a concert for her campaign.
  11. Clinton was dying of a mystery illness/brain tumor/Parkinson’s/syphilis. Just about every story on Clinton’s health except the actual time she had pneumonia.
  12. Sharia law was spreading throughout the U.S. and cities in Michigan already implemented it.
  13. OK. This one’s a true story. One Russian social media account organized an anti-immigrant protest in Texas while another Russian account organized a pro-Muslim protest across the street. This was an attempt to inflame racial tensions during the elections.