Tag: CBO

Week 35 in Trump

Posted on September 25, 2017 in Politics, Trump

This is what we should be talking about this week; not football!

What a week. With everyone else going on in the world (with devastation in Mexico and Puerto Rico), Trump hijacks the news feed by picking a fight with the NFL. In a few hours, we went from a couple dozen players who were protesting racial discrimination to more than 200 players taking a knee during the anthem, and even more standing with locked arms in solidarity. And then, of course, the lies piled on. No, none of the coaches—not Jerry Jones, not Clark Hunt—told their players that they had to stand and couldn’t protest. No, the NFL rule book doesn’t say players have to stand during the anthem; in fact, the rule book doesn’t even mention the anthem. No, players aren’t getting fined $1 million for kneeling. And no, this isn’t about disrespecting the flag or the country or the military. It’s about fighting for an equal justice system applied evenly regardless of race. Until we can talk about that, we’re just going to keep having these same old conversations.

Here’s what else happened in week 35 in Trump…

Russia:

  1. Federal agents warn Paul Manafort that they plan to indict him. It looks like Mueller is backing him into a corner.
    • Likely Manafort will be given the option of testifying in return for a reduced sentence.
    • But with the signal Trump gave his friends by pardoning Joe Arpaio, Manafort might take his chances that Trump will pardon him as well.
    • So now Mueller is working with the NY State Attorney General on parts of the investigation, because Trump can’t pardon Manafort for state crimes.
    • Manafort was under surveillance starting in 2014 and during the time he was hired at the Trump campaign. The original surveillance came from his work for the Ukrainian government.
    • Note that while some people think the above justifies Trump’s claim that Obama was wiretapping him, the FISA warrant a) goes back to before Trump declared his candidacy, and b) isn’t issued lightly by the courts—you need solid evidence. Also, surveillance wasn’t resumed until after he left the campaign. It was discontinued this year at the request of Trump’s lawyers.
    • The current investigation into Manafort reaches back to events that occurred over a decade ago.
    • Manafort communicated with a Ukrainian political operative using his Trump campaign email account. He was trying to get paid for work he did there.
    • Among the emails Manafort turned over to Mueller’s office is an offer to give special private briefings on the 2016 presidential campaign to a Russian billionaire. I’m not sure for what purpose.
  2. Michael Flynn’s family says that the legal fees required by former Trump staffers far exceed their ability to pay.
  3. Lobbyists and political PACs help pay legal fees for people caught up in the Russia probe.
  4. The Republican National Committee helps pay Trump’s legal bills in the Russian probe. So far, it’s paid $231,250, even though Trump himself claims to be worth more than $10 billion.
  5. Mueller has been requesting information, documents, and phone records about Trump’s activities around firing James Comey and constructing a false statement for his son about a meeting with Russians last year.
  6. A NY Times reporter out for lunch in D.C. overhears two White House lawyers discussing the Russian investigation and Trump’s strategy… loudly… in a public restaurant. The conversation highlights conflicts among members of the White House legal staff.
  7. The Senate Intelligence Committee cancels Michael Cohen’s testimony after he breaks their agreement by publishing a statement to the press beforehand. Cohen was a White House lawyer for Trump.
  8. Jon Huntsman, Trump’s pick to be ambassador to Russia, says there is “no question Russia interfered in the US election last summer.”
  9. Facebook gives Mueller’s offices around 3,000 ads that were linked to Russian accounts during the 2016 election.
  10. The federal government officially notifies 21 states that their election systems were targeted by Russians in last year’s election. Only a few states have made that information public so far.
  11. In response to Morgan Freeman’s short video about Russia meddling and hacking in the 2016 elections, state-owned Russian media goes after him, calling him a propagandist and saying he has a Messiah complex from playing God in too many films. Ye, this is the world we live in now.

Courts/Justice:

  1. While Trump argues that DACA was an example of Obama’s presidential overreach, he also argues in support of his travel ban that the president has wide-ranging powers to act unilaterally.

Healthcare:

  1. The Senate GOP starts out the week without the necessary votes for the latest attempt to repeal the ACA, the Graham-Cassidy bill. The main holdouts are Susan Collins, Lisa Murkowski, Rand Paul, and John McCain, but other Senators, including Ted Cruz, aren’t supporting it either.
  2. There is no CBO score on this bill yet.
  3. Groups opposed to the bill include doctors, hospitals, nurses, insurance companies, governors, all 50 Medicaid directors, dozens of healthcare non-profit organizations, and more. The American Medical Association, American Academy of Family Physicians, American Hospital Association, Federation of American Hospitals, America’s Health Insurance Plans, and the BlueCross BlueShield Association wrote a joint letter condemning the bill.
  4. And of all people getting sucked into this fight, Jimmy Kimmel is the most unlikely. He berates Senator Cassidy for claiming he would never sign a bill that didn’t pass the “Jimmy Kimmel test,” and yet here he is proposing just that. Certain media outlets (I’m looking at you Fox) and Republican politicians harshly criticize Kimmel, leading to a weak-long battle.
  5. By the end of this week, John McCain says he can’t support is bill, likely killing it. But opposition groups are still raising the alarms.
  6. On top of the Koch brothers threatening to withhold $400,000,000 in Republican political donations (bribe #1), Congress looks at tweaking the ACA repeal bill so holdout states Alaska and Maine can keep their Medicaid expansion (bribes #2 and #3). No one’s even trying to hide this anymore. I guess this is what transparent government looks like.
  7. Almost half of voters approve of a single-payer healthcare system, with 35% disapproving. Less than 25% approve of the latest repeal effort, with 54% approving of the ACA.

International:

  1. Trump gives his maiden speech at the UN General Assembly, and it reflects the “scorched earth” tone of his inaugural address. The speech covers protecting American people, promoting American prosperity, and promoting accountability and sovereignty. As a reminder, the goals of the UN are to foster peace and global cooperation.
    • He criticizes the UN for mismanagement and not reaching its full potential while praising Trump Tower as a successful project right across the street.
    • He threatens to destroy North Korea (with no specifics) if they don’t stop the rhetoric and nuclear development.
    • Trump gives Kim Jong-un a cool new nickname–Rocket Man. Kim, in turn, calls Trump a dotard (and more in a scathing retort).
    • He launches a diatribe against Iran, suggesting he might cancel the Iran nuclear agreement and escalating the danger we face there, again offering no pathway forward.
    • He undermines the integrity of our agreements with other countries by threatening so many of them.
    • At a later dinner with UN members, Trump threatens unspecified actions against Venezuela if their government doesn’t change direction.
    • H.R. McMaster begs Trump not to use the phrase “radical Islamic terrorism” but Trump can’t stop himself.
    • Coincidentally the fire alarms went off at the State Department during Trump’s speech.
    • A common reaction from foreign dignitaries is that Trump is trying to unify the world using intimidation, which only serves to further isolate us.
    • In a speech to African leaders, Trump says Africa has “tremendous business potential” and that he has “so many friends going to your countries, trying to get rich.”
  2. U.S. state governors meet with world leaders at the UN General Assembly, assuring them that we are still with them and that states are individually carrying out the conditions of the Paris agreement.
  3. Generally for these UN gatherings, the administration does a ton of homework and determines an agenda and a list of goals. When we fail to do this, we cede leadership to the countries who do have an agenda ready.
  4. Senators start to look at ways to restrict Trump’s war powers, specifically around his powers to launch a first strike as opposed to a response to a strike.
  5. California sends specialty teams to help with the recovery efforts in Mexico after its 7.1 earthquake, and also flies flags at half mast. Trump tweets condolences and offers of support.
  6. Trump considers closing the Cuban embassy after diplomats there return to the U.S. with bizarre sets of symptoms (hearing loss, tinnitus, headaches, concussions, brain injuries, nausea). The likely culprit is a subsonic or ultrasonic weapon, but we haven’t gotten to the bottom of it.
  7. Trump signs an executive order with new sanctions on companies that do business with North Korea.
  8. Trump prepares to loosen Obama-era limits on drone strikes and commando raids in Afghanistan and Iraq. If you thought the collateral damage from Obama’s strikes was too big, just wait.
  9. White House officials say that Trump is leaning toward not recertifying the Iran agreement in October. This would put the ball in the hands of Congress and other countries included in the agreement. All of our closest allies recommend against the move.
  10. In retaliation, Iran says it will strengthen its military might and shows off its new missile, which it later tests.
  11. After the missile test, Trump tweets: “Iran just test-fired a Ballistic Missile capable of reaching Israel.They are also working with North Korea.Not much of an agreement we have!” I can’t find anything to back up the collaboration between Iran and North Korea.
  12. Trump is making Iran more popular, or at least more sympathetic, around the world.
  13. Kim Jong-un says he’ll blow up a hydrogen bomb over the Pacific in retaliation for Trump’s rhetoric.
  14. Paul Manafort is currently working on an effort to support and administer a Kurdish separation from Iraq, which the U.S. opposes. Tillerson has to explain that in his meeting with the Iraqi PM. Manafort has a history of working against U.S. interests.
  15. Turkish President Erdogan says Trump apologized to him for the indictment of 15 of his personnel for their attacks against protesters earlier this year. He also says Trump promised to see what he could to about it. The White House denies this.
  16. Another earthquake rattles Mexico—this one a 7.1—flattening buildings and leaving over 100 dead.

Legislation/Congress:

There was no legislative business this week!

Travel Ban/Immigration/Discrimination:

  1. The Trump administration, trying to justify reducing the number of refugees allowed into the U.S., rejects a study by the Department of Health and Human Services that found refugees actually bring in more money than they cost taxpayers. Over a decade, they brought in a net surplus of $63 billion.
  2. The State Department tightens the rules on travel visas, expanding the period for which a traveler cannot do something they failed to disclose. The period used to be one month, and now it’s three (this would include life-changing things like getting a job or going to school).
  3. Clinics in Texas notice a decline in undocumented immigrant visits for routine care, an indicator that they’re afraid to show up for appointments for fear of being deported. This puts their health, their family’s health and the community’s health at risk.
  4. The ACLU sues the Department of Health and Human Services and children’s services in Michigan for allowing foster and adoption agencies to reject potential parents based on religious objections (which, of course, includes same-sex couples). There’s a shortage of foster families in Michigan, even though gay couples have loving homes to offer. Other states also have similar laws: Alabama, North Dakota, South Dakota, Texas, Virginia, and Mississippi. And it’s not just same-sex couples; it could be anything that offends their faith.
  5. California sues the federal government for bypassing environmental laws for building the wall.
  6. Trump picks a fight with the NFL:
    • At a primary rally for Luther Strange, Trump complains about penalties for excessive violence in football, saying that’s why their rating are down. This is one day after a report came out about the brain injury CTE in football players and specifically in Aaron Hernandez.
    • At the same rally, Trump says, “Wouldn’t you love to see one of these NFL owners, when somebody disrespects our flag, to say, ‘Get that son of a bitch off the field right now. Out! He’s fired. He’s fired!’” A) Why is the president of the United States stumping in a republican PRIMARY? B) This is the president of the United States ripping on (mostly black) people for expressing their constitutional rights.
    • And then he uninvites Stephen Curry from the White House after Curry says he doesn’t want to go anyway. The Warriors haven’t decided if they’ll go as a team, and if they do, it’s not clear if Curry would be allowed. Actually, it’s not clear whether Trump withdrew the invitation for just Curry or for the whole team. It seems the whole team. Either way, no one’s going to the White House.
    • Team owners and even NFL commissioner Roger Goodell jump in to defend the league and the players, criticizing Trump for his divisive comments.
    • Players from all sports chime in. Kobe Bryant has some stern words, tweeting that a president “whose name alone creates division and anger” and “whose words inspire dissension and hatred can’t possibly ‘Make America Great Again.’”
    • Trump’s continued remarks on the matter force every single member of the NFL to pick a side. Most players and coaches choose to either kneel or stand with locked arms in solidarity with those kneeling. Some stay in the locker room or off the field during the anthem.
    • The teams take a far more unifying approach than Trump. For the most part they all agree that each player decides their response, and that everyone supports everyone else’s decision, whatever it is.
    • Trump apparently misunderstands the message from those who stand with arms locked. He seems to think they are supporting his words and says that’s OK but kneeling is not. Actually, when they lock arms, they are supporting their teammates, not Trump.
  7. Trump announces a replacement to the travel ban. Under the new ban, most citizens of Iran, Libya, Syria, Yemen, Somalia, Chad and North Korea will be indefinitely banned from entering the U.S. Iraqi citizens and certain Venezuelan groups will either be restricted or will face higher scrutiny. So far, it’s not clear if green card or travel visa holders will be able to travel to the U.S. and whether refugees will be allowed.
  8. Trump’s original travel ban expires Sunday, the Supreme Court will hear arguments on it on Oct. 10, and the new ban is supposed to take effect Oct. 18. I don’t know yet how the new ban announcement will affect scheduled hearings.
  9. Free Speech week at Berkeley falls apart because the organizers, The Berkeley Patriot and Milo Yiannopoulos, didn’t confirm the guest list or book the necessary venues. It’s almost like they don’t really want to speak there.
  10. But wait. Yiannopoulos says he’ll speak there anyway.

Climate/EPA:

  1. It is confirmed (after a bunch of back and forth) that we still plan to withdraw from the Paris accord.
  2. Groups of Republicans in the Senate, political action groups, and industry come forward to say global warming is real, that it’s manmade, and that we need to take action on it.
  3. Nicaragua says they’ll sign on to the Paris agreement, leaving Syria as the sole country not in the agreement and the U.S. as the sole country trying to withdraw.
  4. San Francisco and Oakland sue several large oil companies claiming not only that the oil companies’ activities contributed to greenhouse gases in our atmosphere but that the companies also knew the dangers while publicly saying otherwise.
  5. Governor Brown says we’re on track to meet climate goals despite Trump’s and Scott Pruitt’s efforts to slow down climate change regulations.
  6. The report that Ryan Zinke provided to Trump with recommendations for changes to our national monuments doesn’t include any input from the Bureau of Land Management, but does include several falsehoods. Or lies. Whatever you want to call them.
  7. Scott Pruitt’s full 2017 schedule is released. It turns out he met with a copper mining company on May 1 and then later that same day reversed an Obama-era regulation to protect an Alaskan wetland from certain mining activities. The regulation was put in place after a three-year study that showed mining would result in an irreversible loss of fish habitat there. Why is this important? These waters produce nearly half of our sockeye salmon, and the area provides 14,000 jobs without the mining.
  8. The EPA changes its truck efficiency website so it no longer says that the science on global warming is clear and that we need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
  9. Puerto Rico gets hammered by cat 4 Hurricane Maria, taking power out of the entire country, flooding several areas, and putting infrastructure (like dams) in danger. This was the strongest hurricanes to ever hit the territory.

Budget/Economy:

  1. Senate Republicans agree to go forward with a budget that would increase the deficit in order to pave the way for tax reform—which would include a $1.5 trillion tax cut over the coming decade. They say the tax cut will stimulate economic growth enough to pay for the deficit. For exhibit A, I give you Kansas. See how the trickle down theory is working there.
  2. The fed starts unwinding the 2009 stimulus package created under Obama, saying that the economy has grown strong enough now to roll it back. Expect interest rates to continue to rise.
  3. Trump says that job growth is better than it’s been in a long time, but the truth is that last year was better. This year has so far seen an average of 176,000 new jobs per month, while last year saw an average of 194,000 new jobs per month for the same period.

Elections:

  1. Germany sees online meddling in their elections, though this time it’s from the alt-right in the U.S. instead of from Russia.
  2. Germany re-elects Angela Merkel, but the far right makes gains in the parliament (becoming the third largest party at just under 13%).

Miscellaneous:

  1. Donald Trump Jr. gives up his secret service protection, seeking more privacy.
  2. The FCC finally pushes back on Sinclair Broadcast Group’s acquisition of Tribune and requests more proof of compliance with ownership caps.
  3. Current and former Sinclair employees, union reps, and media experts accuse Sinclair of eroding the public’s trust in local news.
  4. Trump fills USDA positions with campaign staffers instead of agricultural experts. Several appointees don’t have the experience or knowledge commensurate with the salary levels of their positions.
  5. Tom Price, head of HHS, is under investigation by the OIG for his use of private jets, which is fairly extravagant. He says he’ll stop using them because “the optics aren’t good.”
  6. Betsy DeVos overturns Obama-era guidelines protecting women on college campuses from sexual assault and guiding how to handle reports of sexual assault. Some states have already passed bills making the Obama guidelines the law.
  7. White House staffers are reaching out to headhunters in large numbers, planning their exit strategy amongst in-fighting and low morale.
  8. We learn that Jared Kushner set up and used a private email to conduct White House business.
  9. Trump moves the oversight of international gun sales from the State Department to the Commerce Department, making it easier to sell non-military guns to foreigners. One administration official says “You could really turn the spigot on if you do it the right way.”

Polls:

  1. Trump’s approval rating took an uptick after hurricane Harvey and Maria, hitting 40%. But now it’s moving back down into the 30s after the NFL kerfuffle.
  2. More than 70% of Americans approve of Trump’s recent deal with Democrats over DACA.
  3. Less than 25% support his handling of race relations and the violence in Charlottesville.

Stupid Things Politicians Say:

  1. Pat Roberts, on the Graham-Cassidy bill:
    “…this is the best bill possible under the circumstances. If we do nothing, I think it has a tremendous impact on the 2018 elections. And whether or not Republicans still maintain control and we have the gavel.”
  2. Chuck Grassley, on the Graham-Cassidy bill:
    “You know, I could maybe give you 10 reasons why this bill shouldn’t be considered. But Republicans campaigned on this so often that you have a responsibility to carry out what you said in the campaign. That’s pretty much as much of a reason as the substance of the bill.”

Week 34 in Trump

Posted on September 18, 2017 in Politics, Trump

The Senate is giving ACA repeal one final chance, with the latest bill being the most extreme of all they’ve introduced this year. Whether you’re for full repeal, universal healthcare, or something completely different, PLEASE CALL YOUR SENATORS and tell them to vote no on this fake fix. Ask them for REAL healthcare reform that makes quality, affordable healthcare available to everyone (or whatever you think quality healthcare should be). Your members of Congress don’t know what you want if you don’t tell them.

Russia:

  1. Building on their revelations from last week, Facebook says that Russians used false identities to organize and promote political protests on Facebook. The most recent events were anti-immigrant and anti-Muslim rallies in Idaho.
  2. Mueller obtains a warrant for the records of the fake Russian accounts and their associated ads, an indication that he has already found reasonable proof that a crime was committed using those accounts.
  3. The Department of Homeland security forbids federal agencies from using Russian-owned Kaspersky security software. Kaspersky has been linked to the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) and Homeland is worried about cyber security.
  4. According to documents sent by House Democrats to Robert Mueller, Michael Flynn neglected to disclose yet another foreign trip on his security clearance. This trip was to the Middle East to look at a business deal between the Saudi and Russian governments.
  5. Michael Flynn continues to refuse to appear before the Senate Intelligence Committee. Flynn’s son is also being investigated as part of the Russia probe.
  6. In closed-door testimony, Susan Rice says she unmasked American names in intelligence reports last year to determine what the crown prince of the UAE was doing in NY last year. Usually foreign dignitaries alert the White House before visiting the states, but the crown prince didn’t do that for this trip.
  7. High-ranking members from both parties say they don’t think Rice did anything wrong.
  8. Turf wars are surfacing around the Russia investigation. The Justice Department won’t let the Senate interview top FBI officials over Comey’s firing (which could just mean that Mueller is focusing on the firing too). The Senate Judiciary Committee won’t promise Mueller’s team complete access to Donald Trump Jr.’s testimony.
  9. Senators Kirsten Gillibrand and Lindsay Graham propose a bill to create a 9/11-style commission to study cyber attacks around the 2016 elections and to recommend ways to deflect such attacks in the future.
  10. The FBI is investigating Sputnik, the Russian news agency, for possible violations of the Foreign Agents Registration Act, which forbids acting as an undeclared propaganda arm of a foreign government in the U.S.
  11. Russian parliamentarian Vyacheslav Nikonov says U.S. “intelligence missed it when Russian intelligence stole the president of the United States.”
  12. The Senate Judiciary committee has two bills in development that would protect Mueller from being fired by Trump.

Courts/Justice:

  1. The Supreme Court gives Texas a little breather from its long chain of court losses on voting issues. In this case, the court says Texas doesn’t have to redraw their illegal district lines immediately. So the 2018 election will likely go on with the gerrymandered districts. The conservative justices gave no reason for their decision.
  2. The Department of Justice under Sessions gives it’s argument supporting the pardon of Joe Arpaio and vacating all charges.
  3. The House reacts to Jeff Session’s announcement that the DoJ will expand the practice of civil forfeiture by adopting an amendment to prohibit it. Representatives say taking people’s property is unconstitutional and violates civil and property rights.
  4. The DoJ refuses to bring charges against the Baltimore police officers who arrested Freddie Gray, who died from spinal cord injuries while in their custody.
  5. The Senate has a long tradition of consulting with Senators from a specific state before confirming judges from that state. It’s part of the Senate’s role to provide “advice and consent” as written in the constitution. While Republicans refused 18 of Obama’s nominations using blue slips, they now want to get rid of the practice so Trump’s nominees won’t be blocked.
  6. Jeff Sessions wants all National Security Council staff to take lie detector tests, presumably to identify leakers.

Healthcare:

  1. Bernie Sanders introduces a Medicare-for-all healthcare bill, co-sponsored by 16 Democrats.
  2. Well done, GOP. The Congressional Budget Office predicts that Trump will be successful in his attempts to hurt the ACA by refusing to pay subsidies, keeping the market uncertain, and making it harder to enroll. All of these together will cause premiums to rise and will decrease enrollment. IMO, the GOP’s 6-year refusal to fix the ACA and attempts at repeal has cost the people in the individual market dearly. How much more of this will we take before we start saying no more?
  3. The latest ACA repeal bill is headed for a vote in the Senate, this one from Lindsay Graham and Bill Cassidy. Here’s the lowdown on the bill:
    • It’s essentially a repeal-and-don’t-replace bill that gets rid of many of the provisions of the ACA.
    • It would decrease the number of insured by millions more than the previous repeal bills. The CBO estimates the number of uninsured would increase by 32 million compared with current law.
    • It increases the costs for each state, likely by billions.
    • It would punish states that expanded Medicaid under the ACA by drastically reducing funding, and would reward those states that didn’t expand Medicaid by increasing their funding.
    • It would increased premiums by 100% by 2026.

International:

  1. The UN Security Council votes unanimously to place new sanctions on North Korea in retaliation for their nuclear tests.
  2. And North Korea says “I don’t care!” and launches another test missile over Japan.
  3. John Boehner criticizes Trump’s threats to pull out of trade agreements with South Korea, saying that would undermine our objectives in the region.
  4. Mexico rescinds its offer to help with the Hurricane Harvey recovery when Trump fails to express condolences or offer assistance for the 8.1 earthquake that hit southern Mexico.
  5. Shockingly, Mexico’s view of America hits an all-time low. The percent of Mexicans who view the U.S. unfavorably has doubled under Trump to 65%. 93% don’t trust Trump to do the right thing in world affairs.
  6. England raises it’s terror threat level to critical after a bomb goes off in the subway, injuring around 30 people. This launches a major manhunt, evacuating neighborhoods and resulting in two arrests so far.
  7. After the Charlottesville attack where he blamed both sides, Trump said that he didn’t condemn the white supremacists at the time because they didn’t have all the information. However, in the London case, he is quick to call out the “Loser terrorists” and make assumptions in the London case. Theresa May says his response was speculative and unhelpful.
  8. Trump’s partner in his latest golf course in Dubai contracts with state-owned China State Construction Engineering Corporation to build some of the infrastructure. Trump promised not to work with foreign entities as president.
  9. A Senate report on Trump’s foreign policy calls it a doctrine of retreat, and warns that it will only weaken America’s standing in the world.

Legislation/Congress:

  1. The House votes to defund Obama’s EPA rules to limit methane emissions for new drilling sites. This is on top of Scott Pruitt’s efforts to block the implementation of these rules, and comes even though most industry experts say it’s a cheap and easy fix. There are lawsuits pending against rescinding these rules.

Travel Ban/Immigration/Discrimination:

  1. Two groups file lawsuits claiming that Trump’s pardon of Arpaio is unconstitutional.
  2. The Supreme court temporarily upholds the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals expanded definition of a bona fide family relationship under Trump’s travel ban, but it also temporarily blocks the lower court’s attempt to expand the definition to include refugee assistance services as bona fide relationships. The court will hear the case next month.
  3. Meanwhile, H.R. McMaster says the White House is considering a new stricter and tougher travel ban.
  4. Now that Trump has put the lives of around 800,000 DACA recipients in limbo, he turns his attention to immigrants with Temporary Protected Status (TPS). Trump is weighing whether to extend the status for nearly a half million people. TPS status is granted for a variety of reasons, including natural disasters or violence in their home countries.
  5. The House and Senate both unanimously pass the joint resolution denouncing white hate groups. Trump signs the non-binding resolution into law, but says he still blames both sides.
  6. After meeting with Tim Scott, the lone black Republican in the Senate, Trump reiterates his previous statements that both sides were to blame in Charlottesville. Scott, who condemned Trump’s response to Charlottesville, says he didn’t expect Trump to have an epiphany–he is who he is.
  7. Trump waives over a dozen environmental and religious laws in order to get the initial construction done on his wall. This should give you an idea of how he plans to make this happen, regardless of law, environmental effects, and property rights.
  8. Eleven people sue the Department of Homeland Security for what they call unlawful searches of laptops and phones at border crossings and customs.
  9. Over dinner, Trump and Democratic leaders Chuck Schumer and Nancy Pelosi appear to come to an agreement to protect Dreamers and enact border security measures that don’t include the wall. Democrats are thrilled; the White House is muted.
  10. And then Sarah Huckabee Sanders says, “While DACA and border security were both discussed, excluding the wall was certainly not agreed to.”
  11. And then Trump says that a deal was definitely in the works and that the border wall could come later.
  12. By the end of the week, I’m still not clear on whether there was any kind of agreement.
  13. The Trump administration considers lowering the refugee quota to its lowest level since 1980. He’s already reduced the cap to 50,000, less than half the cap under Obama’s last year.
  14. The pope criticizes Trump’s actions on DACA, saying you can’t be pro-life yet willing to rip apart families, because families are at the core of pro-life belief.
  15. Congressman Kevin Yoder (R-Kansas) goes to bat for the widow of Srinivas Kuchibhotla. Srinivas was shot in a Kansas bar by a man who told him to get out of our country, and his death put his widow at risk for deportation. Yoder is helping her obtain her own H-1B visa so she can keep her current job and stay in the U.S.
  16. Yoder previously held a very hard line on immigration, but since helping out in this case, he’s now arguing for immigration reform.
  17. The ACLU files a motion requesting an immediate halt to Trump’s transgender military ban.
  18. Senators Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) and Susan Collins (R-Maine) introduce an amendment that would block Trump’s latest transgender military ban.
  19. So far, three days of protest follow a judge’s decision to acquit a police officer who shot Anthony Lamar Smith after a high-speed chase. The protests started out peaceful, but 80 people were arrested after violence and rioting broke out. Police tried to control the crowd with tear gas.
  20. A federal judge rules that Jeff Sessions exceeded his authority by saying cities must cooperate with immigration officials or lose funds to help fight crime; in other words, federal funding can’t be withheld just because a city is a sanctuary city. The judge ruled a temporary nationwide injunction on the DoJ’s sanctuary cities standards.
  21. California passes a statewide sanctuary bill, joining Oregon as the only other sanctuary state. This is the result of negotiations and compromise between sheriff’s departments, legislators, and civil rights groups. Before you jump to any conclusions, the bill doesn’t protect violent felons; the sheriff’s department will still work with immigration officials on those. But it does make our neighborhoods safer by developing trust between law enforcement and residents.

Climate/EPA:

  1. The pope criticizes climate change deniers during a flyover of the islands hit with Hurricane Irma’s destruction. He urges them to consult actual scientists and says history will judge our decisions.
  2. Climate deniers in the House attack NOAA scientists who published a paper debunking the idea of a hiatus in global warming from 1998 to 2012. The House Science Committee Chair Lamar Smith issues subpoenas for the scientists’ emails, accusing them of manipulating data even though a judge threw out those accusations last month.
  3. I mentioned this under Legislation/Congress, but it’s worth noting again that the House voted not to fund Obama’s methane emissions regulations, even though methane is 30x more potent than carbon dioxide at trapping heat.
  4. The Senate Appropriations committee approves a 2018 spending bill that does not include any funding for grants, assistance, or contributions to the Green Climate Fund.
  5. The House passes a bill cutting funding to the EPA by over $500 million. This is 75% of their operating budget from 2010. We’re on a path to help polluters and reduce our own air and water quality. And don’t even get me started on climate change.
  6. Ryan Zinke signs an expansive order to open public lands to more hunting and fishing, as well as provide educational outreach. He says this administration understands hunters better than Obama’s did, although groups of hunters have banded in disagreement over some of Zinke’s changes, saying they’ll open public land to more development and less hunting.
  7. This week we hear rumors that Trump isn’t going to pull out of the Paris accord. And then we hear he’s still withdrawing. Or is he? I guess we’ll find out, but for now it seems we are still on track to withdraw.
  8. Scientists are working to push back against policy changes that ignore science. The Science Protection Program urges scientists to report interference, helps preserve their data using encrypted channels, and offers legal advice. Public health and scientific agencies are part of this effort.
  9. I think this might’ve been mentioned a few weeks ago, but Zinke’s recommendations to Trump after his national monument review include reductions to four protected areas: Utah’s Bears Ears and Grand Staircase-Escalante, Nevada’s Gold Butte, Oregon’s Cascade-Siskiyou, the Pacific Remote Islands, and the Rose Atoll.
  10. Zinke also proposes removing restrictions on seismic studies in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, the first step in opening it to oil and gas drilling. The melting ice and tundra in the area have turned ANWR into a playground for polar bears, which are already at risk from global warming.
  11. Last week Trump called Irma the biggest hurricane we’ve ever seen. This week, when asked about climate change, Trump says we’ve seen bigger hurricanes than this.
  12. While the EPA works to overturn Obama’s Clean Power Plan climate regulations, Trump considers replacing it with a new plan instead of just junking it.

Budget/Economy:

  1. Trump’s budget includes deep cuts to many agencies that members of Congress hold dear, including the National Institutes of Health. This week, not only did Congress reject the cuts to the NIH, they increased spending on biomedical research, fearing that cutting the NIH budget would cripple American innovation and delay new cures.
  2. The Senate Appropriations Committee approves a 2018 spending bill that does not include the cuts that Trump requested to the State Department, much to the relief of most diplomats.
  3. It turns out that Equifax spent $500,000 lobbying the government to limit the liability of credit agencies in case any of their data was hacked. It’s like they saw it coming.

Elections:

  1. In light of Kris Kobach’s baseless accusations of voter fraud in New Hampshire the previous week, voter rights activists protest at the second (and fairly contentious) voter fraud commission meeting.
  2. Also at the voter fraud commission meeting, John Lott (researcher and Fox News commentator) proposes that voters be subjected to the same kind of background check as is required to buy a gun.
  3. A FOIA request reveals the contents of an email sent by the Heritage Foundation’s Hans von Spakovsky, who is a member of the voter fraud commission. The email urges the Justice Department to create the voter fraud commission with a membership stacked in favor of tighter voter restrictions, saying no Democrats and no moderate Republicans should serve on the commission. In other words, he only wants extremists who believe in voter fraud conspiracies to serve on the panel. Spakovsky had previously denied writing the email.
  4. While a number of GOP members of Congress have announced they’ll retire at the end of their current term, Steve Bannon says he’s planning primary challenges to several GOP incumbents who are not retiring.
  5. Kid Rock declares his candidacy for the Senate in Michigan.

Miscellaneous:

  1. The Trump Organization removes the part in Trump’s online corporate bio that mentioned his birtherism. Just a reminder, Trump worked to prove that Obama wasn’t born in the U.S. and that his birth certificate was fake. And then later admitted that Obama was born in the U.S.
  2. The Office of Government Ethics reversed an earlier decision and now says it’s OK for lobbyists to give money to the legal defense funds of White House staffers.
  3. The Trump administration put regulations around organic eggs on hold and might rescind them. The regulations require organic egg producers to provide outside space for each hen.
  4. Gun sales are on track to be down 11% from last year, likely because people don’t think gun reform is in our near future.
  5. In an interview, Sean Spicer says his job as press secretary was to say what Trump told him to and that included lying.
  6. The California State Assembly passes a bill requiring presidential candidates to release their tax returns in order to get on the statewide ballot.
  7. While emergency officials in Manatee County, Florida, were giving out evacuation and shelter information for Hurricane Irma, the sign-language translator instead signed about random things like pizza, monsters, cats, and dogs.
  8. Hillary Clinton is back in the news promoting her new book, What Happened, about the 2016 elections. As usual, she ignites a shitstorm of ignorant and sexist criticism.
  9. Pharmaceutical executive and all-around douchebag Martin Shkreli is back in jail after a judge revokes his bail for offering $5,000 to anyone who can get one of Hillary Clinton’s hairs, follicle and all, at one of her book signings.
  10. Trump retweets a GIF of himself hitting a golf ball that hits Hillary Clinton, knocking her over. I guess he doesn’t like her book.

Week 30 in Trump

Posted on August 21, 2017 in Politics, Trump

A few quotes apropos of this past week’s events:

From Robert E. Lee himself: “I think it wiser not to keep open the sores of war but to follow the examples of those nations who endeavored to obliterate the marks of civil strife, to commit to oblivion the feelings engendered.”

From one of my favorite bloggers: “We all have the right to protest, but not all protests are right.”

From the University of Texas at Austin: “We do not choose our history, but we choose what we honor and celebrate on our campus.”

And just my opinion here, but we’ve seen a lot of strong intellectuals, scientists, and business leaders jumping Trump’s ship—and there are calls for Gary Cohn to step down and save his reputation. But we need brains and leadership to help guide this careening ship, so I hope he stays, along with other thoughtful, smart people.

Here’s what happened in week 30…

Russia:

  1. One of the veteran FBI investigators working on the Russia probe, Peter Strzok, moves into a human resources position. We don’t know if it was voluntary or not.
  2. Internal Trump campaign emails show that one of Trump’s campaign advisers, George Papadopoulos, tried several times to set up meetings between the campaign and Russian leaders during the run-up to last year’s election.
  3. Mueller wants to talk to Reince Preibus in the Russia probe.

Courts/Justice:

  1. We learn that Jeff Sessions requested info on 1.3 million visitors to an anti-Trump organizing site. It looks like this is part of the investigation into the antifa violence on inauguration day. The host company is pushing back against the request saying that it’s too broad and captures too much information.
  2. Judge Gorsuch raises ethics questions when he agrees to speak at an event being held at the Trump Hotel, which is under litigation around conflicts of interest.
  3. Sessions once again criticizes Chicago, the right’s poster child for the unproven narrative of failed liberal policies leading to violence. He says their sanctuary policies are what’s driving violent crime there.

Healthcare:

  1. The Trump administration continues its effort to roll back Obama’s anti-arbitration regulations. At question are patients’ rights to sue healthcare companies, including nursing homes, for harm caused. Most healthcare institutions have anti-arbitration clauses that you must sign before receiving services or moving into a nursing home. This gives consumers little to fall back on when they are mistreated, and especially affects eldercare in nursing homes.
  2. The CBO reports that cutting the ACA subsidies would not only increase insurance premiums, but would also increase the cost to the federal government. Trump agrees to continue paying the subsidies. But did he do it in time to mitigate the expected increase in next year’s premiums?
  3. Tom Price ends an experiment to see if bundling payments for certain procedures, like hip surgeries, would lower overall costs. Under the program, healthcare facilities were required to charge the same price across the board for the same procedures. I guess we won’t find out if it would have worked.

International:

  1. North Korea backs down from its threats to bomb Guam, but says the U.S. is still on notice.
  2. American intelligence agencies link North Korea’s success in their missile tests with an old Ukrainian factory with ties to Russia’s cold-war missile program.
  3. Iran threatens to drop out of the nuclear deal if any new sanctions are put in place against them. This would let them get back to work on nuclear weapons, so this is not something we want.
  4. Not political, but definitely newsworthy and not getting enough coverage: At least 200 people die in a massive mudslide in Sierra Leone, and hundreds are missing. At least 3,000 people lose their homes.
  5. There are multiple terrorist attacks in Spain, with a vehicular attack on a main tourist pedestrian street in Barcelona and a bomb that accidentally exploded in the terrorists home. There are 15 dead, including several perpetrators.
  6. Trump reacts more swiftly and harshly against the terrorist attacks in Barcelona than the one in Charlottesville.
  7. After that measured response, Trump also tweets a debunked rumor about General Pershing shooting Muslims with bullets soaked in pig’s blood. Seriously people. This never happened.
  8. Pence cuts his South American trip short to meet with Trump about the war on Afghanistan.
  9. A terrorist wielding a knife kills two and injures eight in Finland. This is a bad week for terrorism.
  10. The U.S. starts a trade investigation into China’s trade violations around intellectual property. This presents risks at time when hostility with North Korea is building up and we could use China’s help. But China has ignored our intellectual property laws for decades, cutting into the profits of U.S. companies.
  11. Trump moves the cyber command unit of the military up so it will be better able to improve its capabilities to fight cyber attacks.
  12. Again? Another U.S. Navy destroyer collides with a ship—this time an oil tanker—off the coast of Singapore. Ten people are missing. This puts us down three destroyers so far. The Navy opens a broad investigation into the accidents.

Travel Ban/Immigration/Discrimination:

Charlottesville Fallout:

  1. Days after the Charlottesville attack, Trump retweets a GIF of a train hitting CNN (a person with a CNN logo). He later deletes the tweet.
  2. The University of Virginia holds a candlelight vigil for Heather Heyer, who was killed in the car attack. They didn’t want to put it on social media because they were afraid neo-nazis would show up.
  3. Two days after his statement blaming ″both sides″ in the Charlottesville violence, Trump reads a written statement denouncing white supremacist groups specifically by name.
  4. And then on Tuesday, he screws up any goodwill he might have gotten by doubling down on his words from Saturday and arguing with reporters for several minutes about how both sides are equally to blame and equally as bad. This was an unplanned Q&A at the end of a press conference on infrastructure, and Trump sounded very angry, defensive, and frustrated.
  5. Trump later says he feels liberated by his off the rails press conference.
  6. News hosts covering the press conference show their stunned reactions in real-time. All of them, from CNN to Fox to local news channels, are shaken by what they just saw.
  7. Even Trump’s staffers say they’re “stunned and disheartened” by Trump’s remarks.
  8. This is a tactic Trump has used before—delay denouncing members of his base for 48 hours or so, and then say something to dampen the media frenzy caused by his lack of calling out the bad apples.
  9. Here are a few of the responses across the country to the violence and Trump’s handling of it:
    • The Illinois Senate passes a resolution to have police classify neo-nazi groups as terrorist organizations.
    • Cities accelerate the pace of removing Confederate statues. Unfortunately, some city councils have voted to have the statues destroyed instead of maintained in a museum or other facility.
    • Foreign leaders denounce Trump’s response to Charlottesville.
    • So many CEOs pull out of Trump’s business councils that he disbands them.
    • The CEO of Walmart criticizes Trump’s response in a memo to his employees.
    • GoDaddy, Google, and Squarespace kick white supremacist sites off their servers.
    • Republicans are forced to step up and take a stand against racist hate groups.
    • So far, at least 16 charities have pulled their events from Mar-a-Lago.
    • One pastor resigns from Trump’s Evangelical Advisory Board, saying they have conflicting values after Charlottesville.
    • All 16 commissioners on the Committee on the Arts and the Humanities resign in a scathing letter (where they also spell out ″RESIST″ in the first letter of each paragraph).
    • James Murdoch, son of Rupert and CEO of 21st Century Fox, writes a letter condemning white hate groups and pledging to donate $1 million to the Anti-Defamation League.
    • A group of Liberty University alumni return their diplomas in protest of university president Jerry Fallwell’s defense of Trump’s comments on Charlottesville.
    • House Democrats introduce a measure to censure Trump over his comments on Charlottesville.
  10. Trump says that the counter protests were illegal because they didn’t have permits. They did have permits.
  11. The White House issues a memo urging GOP members to back Trump’s original remarks on Charlottesville.
  12. Obama’s response to the Charlottesville tragedy becomes the most liked and (so far) 4th most retweeted tweet in history.
  13. Both former presidents Bush 1 and 2 denounce racism and bigotry. Paul Ryan calls white supremacy “repulsive.” Mitch McConnell says those ideologies are not welcome here. Mitt Romney pens an eloquent and scathing letter denouncing both racist hate groups and Trump’s response.
  14. The four branches of military, the Navy, Marines, Army, Air Force, and National Guard, felt the need to denounce racism after Trump’s remarks.

Everything Else:

  1. Two weeks later, we’re still waiting for Trump to denounce the bombing of a mosque in Minnesota.
  2. John Dowd, Trump’s lead lawyer on the Russia investigation, sends a bizarre email to conservative journalists saying that there’s basically no difference between George Washington and General Robert E. Lee. If I have to explain the difference to you, you need to go back to school.
  3. Dowd’s email also says that Black Lives Matter has been totally infiltrated by terrorist groups.
  4. Someone vandalizes the Lincoln Memorial, spraying painting “Fuck law” in red paint.
  5. Alt-right leaders start dealing with the fact that police and authorities in Virginia didn’t back them up last weekend. They’re having to come to terms with the realities of being members of an unpopular minority group.
  6. White supremacists have a bizarre affection for Russia:
    • From Richard Spencer: “Russia is the sole white power in the world.”
    • From David Duke: “Russia is key to white survival.”
  7. Trump’s Thursday tweet storm shows a lack of understanding about American culture and the meaning behind Confederate monuments. In this tweet storm, he:
    • Attacks two sitting GOP senators.
    • Goes after the fake news media (again).
    • Says he’s sad that we’re removing our beautiful statues. Side note: Most of these statues were erected during the Jim Crow and civil rights eras as a reminder of white supremacy.
    • Wonders if we’ll pull down all the Jefferson monuments.
    • Says we’re ripping apart our culture.
  8. According to the Southern Poverty Law Center, there are around 900 hate groups in the U.S. Their list is controversial because they include anti-LGBTQ Christian groups, but sorry folks, hate is hate is hate. Here’s their reasoning, if you’re interested.
  9. The ACLU says they will no longer defend the right to free speech if the group in question is armed with guns. The ACLU originally defended the alt-right’s right to march in Charlottesville. Some feel that hate speech or intent to promote violence should play into whether they defend someone, but up until now, they have defended the 1st amendment without question.
  10. The Charlottesville incident raises new concerns about pending legislation in six states to protect drivers who hit protesters with your car.
  11. People organize marches across the country in support of Charlottesville.
  12. There are also rallies across the country calling for the removal of Confederate monuments, plus a few to keep the statues up.
  13. Several ″free speech″ March on Google rallies are scheduled across the country, with counter protests also planned. Organizers cancel the March on Google rallies, citing fears of violence; but the counter protests go on. Actually it looks like the March on Google rallies didn’t spark much interest.
  14. A free speech rally in Boston draws tens of thousands of counter protesters amid suspicion that it was actually a white supremacist rally. Police arrest 27 people, mostly for disorderly conduct, but nobody is injured.
  15. While organizers claim the free speech rally isn’t a white supremacist rally, several speakers either pull out or are uninvited after the events in Charlottesville. At least two of them are known white supremacists.
  16. During the Boston marches, Trump tweets “Looks like many anti-police agitators in Boston. Police are looking tough and smart! Thank you.” It was easier for him to call out peaceful protesters who didn’t kill or injure anyone than to call out the white hate groups that did.
  17. In contrast, Boston Mayor Martin J. Walsh said, “I think it’s clear today that Boston stood for peace and love, not bigotry and hate.”
  18. And then later, someone must’ve taken over Trump’s account because he tweeted “I want to applaud the many protestors in Boston who are speaking out against bigotry and hate. Our country will soon come together as one!”
  19. Fox News tweets that thousands turn out for the free speech rally in Boston. In reality, tens of thousands turn out to protest the rally due to the white supremacist speakers scheduled. The number of rally attendees was fewer than 100.
  20. Of note, the protesters aren’t protesting free speech, but rather the white supremacists who organized the free speech rallies. The rallies were organized under the guise of protecting the free speech of the Google employee who was fired after his screed on gender in tech. Since he’s not being prosecuted, this is not a free speech issue.
  21. The University of Texas at Austin begins removal of Confederate statues in the middle of the night.
  22. As of August, Trump has a mixed record on immigration and border control. We have fewer Border Patrol officers than when he started, and if the current pace keeps up, 10,000 fewer undocumented immigrants will be deported this year. Illegal border crossings are down though. Side note: We just got back from Mexico, and the border area is really beautiful and rugged. The fence is already a blight and I think building a massive wall would just be a shame.
  23. A nazi rally in Berlin brings 500 nazis and 1,000 protestors.
  24. Some NYPD officers hold a rally in support of Colin Kaepernick. Frank Serpico attends. Yes, that Frank Serpico.
  25. In a May report,“White Supremacist Extremism Poses Persistent Threat of Lethal Violence,” the FBI and DHS warned Trump about white hate groups. The report says these groups “likely will continue to pose a threat of lethal violence over the next year,” and that they carried out more attacks than any other domestic extremist group in the past 16 years.
  26. Trans-surgical care is put on hold in the military, pending further guidance.
  27. The DHS ends a program where Central American children can apply for parole status, but it continues the program for applying for refugee status. The parole component was started as a way to reduce the flow of children illegally crossing the border.

Climate/EPA:

  1. Ryan Zinke announces that, for now, the Sand to Snow National Monument east of Los Angeles is safe for now. This is one of the monuments Obama designated. No word on the other monuments under review.
  2. Trump disbands the federal advisory panel for the National Climate Assessment. This group helps government and private-sector officials plan around the government’s climate analysis.
  3. A surge of GOP Members of Congress publicly jump the climate-denial ship. The House Climate Solutions Caucus has more than tripled its membership since January. And last month, 46 GOP members voted with Democrats to stop an amendment that would have removed the requirement that the Department of Defense prepare for the effects of climate change.
  4. Meanwhile, the EPA is revising an Obama-era regulation that limits the dumping of toxic metals from coal-fired power plants, along with a regulation that sets emissions standards for heavy-duty trucks.

Budget/Economy:

  1. Trump signs an executive order expediting the environmental review process for high-profile infrastructure projects, like highways, bridges, and, probably most importantly, his amazing wall.
  2. NAFTA talks get underway between Canadian, U.S., and Mexican trade officials.
  3. Senator James Lankford (R-Okla.) says that having a trade deficit is a good thing because it means that foreigners are investing in our economy. For example, when a foreign agent invests in a U.S. company or buys U.S. Treasury bonds, that increases our trade deficit.
  4. While groups from all sides have come forward opposing the merger between the Sinclair Broadcasting Group and Tribune Media, none have come forward to defend the merger. Conservative media oppose it because of the competition and everybody else opposes it because of Sinclair’s mandatory conservative op-eds.
  5. There’s a lot of talk about housing some of the Confederate statues in museums, but Trump’s budget eliminates funding to museums.
  6. In just 7 months, the Secret Service has gone through their entire year’s budget for protecting Trump and his family.
  7. Trump drops his plan to form an infrastructure advisory committee in light of the disbanding of his other two business advisory boards. IMO, this is not a good development—he needs all the help and support he can get here.
  8. Pence makes a few small trade deals in South America that opens up markets for U.S. agriculture, and South Korea lifts its ban on U.S. poultry and egg products.

Elections:

  1. A federal court rules that the district lines in Texas (drawn by the GOP) discriminate against ethnic minorities and must be redrawn before the midterm elections. If the Texas legislature won’t fix them, the court will.

Miscellaneous:

  1. Carl Icahn resigns from his advisory role to the White House ahead of an article discussing his potential conflicts of interest and possible illegalities.
  2. Trump closes his off-the-cuff press conference by bragging that he owns one of the largest wineries in the US, right there in Charlottesville.
  3. Steve Bannon calls a liberal journalist whom he respects to talk about trade policies, but ends up giving an accidental on-the-record interview. He undercuts Trump, mocks the alt-right as irrelevant clowns, and talks about the in-fighting in the White House.
  4. And just like that, Bannon is out. He says his purpose there is done; he’s achieved what he wanted to achieve.
  5. Bannon will go back to Breitbart, where he’ll have an even wider audience for his own brand of propaganda. Yay. Here’s what sources close the Bannon say about that:
    • Bannon will be “going to war” for Trump, vowing to intensify the fight from the outside.
    • “Steve is now unchained. Fully unchained.”
    • “He’s going nuclear. You have no idea. This is gonna be really fucking bad.”
    • According to a GOP Member of Congress: “Now the real circus begins. … This is the tea party coming full circle.”
    • From Bannon himself: “The Trump presidency that we fought for, and won, is over.”
  6. Bannon says he’s going after his enemies, so if you’re a Breitbart reader, be on the lookout for hit jobs against the following: Paul Ryan, Mitch McConnell, Ivanka Trump, Jared Kushner, and Gary Cohn.
  7. Trump thinks Bannon was behind the leaks targeting McMaster, specifically that he has a drinking problem and that he’s anti-Israel.
  8. GOP leaders worry that they don’t have anyone on their side in the White House anymore.
  9. Donald and Melania Trump announce that they will not participate in the Kennedy Center Honors this year so as not to cause political distractions.
  10. Trump hosts a dinner at his Bedminster country club with some of his most generous donors.
  11. Trump ignores Phoenix mayor’s request to cancel his rally in the city.
  12. Hope Hicks takes over as Trump’s interim Director of Communication.
  13. Prescient. During a campaign speech last year for Hillary Clinton, Obama said that no one changes the president, but instead the office “magnifies” who you are already. So if you “accept the support of Klan sympathizers before you’re President, or you’re kind of slow in disowning it, saying, ‘Well, I don’t know,’ then that’s how you’ll be as President.” Of note, Hillary also warned us.
  14. And on a positive note, with Newt Gingrich’s wife taking on the ambassadorship to the Vatican, Newt will soon be leaving the country.

Polls:

  1. Trump’s approval rating continues its slow decline, sitting at 34% in the latest Gallup poll. 61% disapprove, a new high for the Gallup poll.
  2. The percent of Americans who think Trump should be impeached has increased from 30% to 40% over the course of his presidency.
  3. Most countries worldwide trust Putin more than Trump to handle global affairs. Of the countries who trust Trump more, most trust him just barely more than Putin.
  4. Trump’s approval rating is at 34% to 36% in the three states that won him the election: Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. 60% in those states say Trump has embarrassed them.

Week 26 in Trump

Posted on July 24, 2017 in Politics, Trump

Since we’re at the half-year mark, here’s a status update courtesy of Politico (plus a few extra):

  • Healthcare: Stalled for now, likely dead.
  • Infrastructure: This has moved to low place on the totem pole, with no signs of movement.
  • Tax Reform: Uncertain. Congress can’t do much with this until they pass a 2018 budget, which conservatives are already talking about killing.
  • Government Spending/Debt Ceiling: Behind. This needs to get done by the end of September.
  • The Wall: Stalled with the spending bill and budget, though companies are beginning soil tests to figure out the required structure of the wall.
  • Immigration: The ban is in place, sort of. It’s unclear where they are on analyzing and updating the vetting process.
  • ISIS: A strategy just came out that is very similar to Obama’s.
  • Supreme Court: A conservative judge, Gorsuch, is firmly in place.
  • Climate: This is probably where the most progress has been, though states and cities are able to mitigate. Trump announced our withdrawal from the Paris accord, and Congress has rescinded a gazillion environmental protections. Zinke is looking at which national monument designations he can remove or shrink. Also, the cabinet is full of global warming deniers. So things aren’t looking so great for the environment.

Russia:

  1. Revelations from the Russia/Trump Jr. meeting reveal that one of Russia’s goals in all this was to get the Magnitsky act repealed (in other words, sanctions).
  2. Robert Mueller asks the White House to keep all documents around the above meeting.
  3. Both Manafort and Trump Jr. make a deal with congressional committees to avoid a public hearing and instead to testify privately.
  4. Two weeks before Kushner released the emails about the meeting, the Trump reelection campaign paid $50,000 to Kushner’s attorney.
  5. It turns out Trump had a second meeting with Putin after their official 2 1/4 hour official meeting; this one was informal and lasted around an hour. The meeting was at a dinner at the G20, and the only other person speaking with them was Putin’s interpreter (though the other leaders and diplomats were around).
  6. Trump says he and Putin talked about adoptions, which we now know is code word for sanctions.
  7. Trump says he wouldn’t have nominated Jeff Sessions if he would’ve known he was going to recuse himself from the Russia investigation.
  8. Trump warns Mueller against expanding the scope of his investigation to include financial and business transactions. The next day, we learn that Mueller is investigating business and real estate transactions between Russia and Trump businesses and associates.
  9. Trump’s team of lawyers look into ways to undermine Mueller and his investigation, as surrogates make the talk show rounds to throw doubt on both.
  10. Trump wonders if he can pardon his family and even himself. His lawyers are looking into it. There’s no real precedent, though documents from Nixon’s hearings could provide some guidance.
  11. He later asserts that he can pardon himself, saying he has the complete power to pardon his family, aides, and himself.
  12. The Senate Intelligence Committee thinks the Trump campaign digital team might have assisted Russians by boosting and helping to target fake stories. They’re investigating, but not likely to get help from companies like Facebook.
  13. Manafort’s troubles keep growing. Mueller is investigating him for possible money laundering involving contacts in Russia and the Ukraine, and before joining the Trump campaign he was millions in debt to pro-Russia interests.
  14. Trump’s personal lawyer, Mark Kasowitz, steps down as head of the legal team. The legal team’s spokesman, Mark Corallo, quits over disagreements about smearing Mueller and over all the infighting in the White House.
  15. After Jeff Sessions denied any meetings with Russian operatives, we learn that he did meet with their ambassador to the U.S. After Sessions admitted to that meeting but denied they spoke about campaign or policy issues, intelligence intercepts show that they did indeed talk about such things (according to the ambassador).
  16. The House finally reaches agreement on a Russia sanctions bill that would require congressional approval to lift sanctions on Russia.
  17. Susan Rice meets with the Senate Intelligence Committee, likely around unmasking U.S. names in intercepts.
  18. In case you were wondering, the special investigation into Bill Clinton headed by Kenneth Starr concluded that not even the president is above the law and therefore can be prosecuted. So yes, Trump could be prosecuted if Mueller’s investigation finds any illegal activity.

Courts/Justice:

  1. Jeff Sessions reverses a policy that made it harder for local law enforcement to confiscate property of people who are merely suspected of a crime. Not charged, not indicted, not found guilty. Just suspected.
  2. The Senate confirms John K Bush to a lifetime appointment to the United States Court of Appeals for the Sixth Circuit. He once compared abortion with slavery, saying they are “the two greatest tragedies in our country.”

Healthcare:

  1. Two more senators oppose the revised healthcare bill and it is effectively dead.
  2. In [what I thought was] a last-ditch effort, Mitch McConnell tries to push for a repeal-only bill that would delay actual repeal for two years (that is, after next year’s midterm elections). But it would repeal the mandate immediately, causing turmoil in the marketplaces. This doesn’t fly either.
  3. This is similar to a plan the Republicans passed in 2015 under reconciliation, but they knew Obama would veto it. That they can’t pass it now makes me think they were bluffing the last times they tried to repeal it in full or in part.
  4. Republicans play with a plan to stop supporting portions of the ACA to make it fail. This throws a curve ball into the insurance markets, so we can expect higher costs and fewer choices next year. Trump alternatively supports and rejects this.
  5. Trump hosts Republicans for lunch to talk healthcare, telling them they should work on repeal through the August recess. He says every American should have a good health care plan, apparently not understanding that repealing the ACA leaves us with no plan. He also issued not-so-thinly veiled threats to Senators who are holding out.
  6. If the senate actually repeals the ACA without any replacement, the CBO estimates that 32 million more people will be uninsured.
  7. In an interview Trump says, “Because you are basically saying from the moment the insurance, you’re 21 years old, you start working and you’re paying $12 a year for insurance, and by the time you’re 70, you get a nice plan.” TWELVE DOLLARS? Try $12,000, if you’re lucky. This possibly explains the disconnect between the Republican plan and the actual reality of insurance. A Republican defended him saying he doesn’t need to know every detail. Some think he’s mixing up health insurance with an ad for life insurance that plays on Fox.
  8. The Department of Health and Human Services releases a fake score of Ted Cruz’s amendment to the healthcare bill. The CBO has had trouble scoring it because Cruz’s office won’t respond to questions.
  9. Legal experts request an investigation into the Department of Health and Human Services’ use of ACA funds to create a propaganda campaign against the ACA. They allege that HHS used funds designated to provide helpful information about the ACA. Some of the videos they produced highlighted personal stories caused by states not accepting the Medicaid expansion, and some caused by misunderstanding patient rights under the law.
  10. The Trump administration ends ACA contracts that helped shoppers get insurance through the exchanges. This, along with shortening the sign-up period, minimizing information campaigns, and creating anti-ACA propaganda, indicates that they are ready to force this ship to sink.
  11. But then, this effort just won’t die. By the end of the week, McConnell is still looking to pull something together for a vote. Senate Republicans plan a vote on whether to begin debate on a bill. Though there is confusion over which bill is actually going to be up for a vote.
  12. Democrats say certain wording in the bill needs to be removed because it doesn’t comply with reconciliation rules… but how do they know which bill they’re voting on?
  13. Trump says the healthcare bill will put money in the pockets of middle- and low-income earners, but the $700 billion in cuts will likely go mostly to the most wealthy.

International:

  1. Trump recertifies the Iran nuclear deal after a few hours of arguing with his national security advisors. This needs to be recertified every 90 days.
  2. He then puts together a group of White House staffers to come up with reasons not to recertify the Iran nuclear deal when it comes up next time around, bypassing the State Department. And apparently not judging it on what actually goes down over the next three months.
  3. Trump ends the CIA’s ongoing program to arm and train Syrian rebels fighting Assad, something Russia’s been wanting for a while.
  4. The EU threatens to remove Poland’s EU voting rights in response to Poland’s government’s plans to put the judiciary branch under full political control.
  5. Tillerson shuts down the war crimes office of the State Department.
  6. Trump’s nominee to head the Import-Export Bank has previously said he’d like to shut it down. No surprise here, based on recent experience.
  7. Trump nominates Jon Huntsman as ambassador to Russia.
  8. A strategy document outlining the Trump administration’s approach to defeating ISIS indicates that they plan to pretty much carry on with Obama’s approach without having learned from his errors.
  9. The administration puts the kibosh on travel to North Korea.

Legislation/Congress:

  1. House Republicans working on the defense spending bill remove an amendment that would have repealed the 2001 Authorization of War. The amendment had bipartisan support in the Appropriations Committee.
  2. Texas Governor Greg Abbott calls a special session of Senate to push through Republican initiatives, including a bathroom bill, abortion bills, limits on local ordinances, school vouchers, voter fraud investigations, and restricting union dues, among other issues. This draws community protests and criticism from local officials.
  3. The House Appropriations Committee approves the destruction of all remaining wild mustangs in the U.S.
  4. Representative Steve Cohen of Tennessee files a no-confidence resolution against Trump, citing 88 reasons he’s unfit for office. This will not pass the House.

Travel Ban/Immigration/Discrimination:

  1. Six months later… When immigrants take the oath of citizenship, the welcome letter in their citizenship packet is still signed by Obama.
  2. The Supreme Court upholds a Hawaii judge’s ruling that extended family is exempted from the travel ban, so grandparents, nieces, and other relatives of U.S. residents can enter the country. However, the court struck down an exemption for certain refugees.
  3. Kim Davis’s refusal to issue marriages licenses to same-sex couples ends up costing Kentucky $224,000 in legal fees and costs.

Climate/EPA:

  1. California passed a bipartisan bill to extend the state’s cap-and-trade program. Far-left says it doesn’t go far enough; far-right says it’s too restrictive on businesses.
  2. The Army Corps of engineers says it’ll need the rest of 2017 to perform a court-ordered environmental review of DAPL. They’re suing to keep the pipeline running during the review.
  3. A study ordered by Energy Secretary Rick Perry showed that, contrary to Perry’s claims, solar and wind power don’t reduce the reliability of the electric grid. In fact, the power grid is more reliable today than it’s ever been.

Budget/Economy:

  1. It’s Made in America week, but Homeland Security allows an additional 15,000 H-2B visas (for low-wage, foreign workers). The reasoning is that these workers help American businesses to prosper.
  2. As Trump pushes Made in America week, the administration also tries to defund a Labor Department agency that helps American workers compete fairly in the global market.
  3. The Trump administration announces their NAFTA objectives, which so far mostly seem to be around tougher enforcements. Trump says that the current deal is good for farmers and ranchers, but maintains that it is bad for manufacturing.
  4. The House releases a budget plan this week that increases defense spending more than Trump’s plan, cuts domestic spending less, and assumes a lower rate of growth. It also pushes options for private plans in place of Medicare.
  5. At the same time, the Senate Appropriations Committee announces funding levels that are relatively in line with the current levels, giving House moderates more ammunition.
  6. The House budget bill pretty much cancels trumps budget provisions for school choice vouchers.
  7. Mexico signs a trade deal with Brazil, which means the U.S. is no longer their sole provider of corn. They’re working on another deal with Argentina. U.S. corn sales to Mexico are already down 7% this year.
  8. Canada finalized a trade deal with the EU that will cut into U.S. sales of processed goods to Canada.
  9. The U.S. signs a deal with China that’s been decades in the making and that will allow the U.S. to sell rice to China.
  10. Infrastructure, which IMO is the one thing that might get bipartisan agreement, is stuck behind other legislative issues, including the budget, the debt ceiling, tax reform, and immigration laws. It’s not looking like it’ll happen anytime soon.

Elections:

  1. A South Carolina State Election Commission report says there were about 150,000 attempts to hack into their voter registration system on Election Day last year.
  2. The Illinois State Board of Elections says they were being hit by hacking attempts 5 times per second, 24/7, from late June to mid-August 2016. Hackers accessed around 90,000 voter records.
  3. The Election Integrity Commission holds its first meeting. Commission member Hans von Spakovsky, a senior fellow at the conservative Heritage Foundation who is actively looking for massive voter fraud, hands out copies of his voter fraud database. To put voter fraud in perspective, the database contains around 1,000 prosecuted cases over the past 15 years. That’s fewer than 70 cases a year out of more than 100,000,000 votes (so conservatively, a .00007% incidence). A quick check of his database shows that several of those cases were by candidates, not voters, so the rate of actual voter fraud is even lower than that.
  4. Cory Booker introduces a bill to repeal Trumps executive order on the voter fraud commission and to block federal funds from being used for it.
  5. Obama’s cybersecurity team had a plan in place to minimize damage caused by any last-minute cyber attack efforts by the Russians on election day.

Miscellaneous:

  1. Sean Spicer resigns upon Trump’s hiring of Anthony Scaramucci as communications director. Scaramucci is the senior vice president and chief strategy officer at the Export-Import Bank.
  2. Scarmaucci’s hiring took most everyone in the White House by surprise.
  3. Scaramucci starts deleting old tweets and social media posts that spoke against Trump or the RNC. At least he’s being transparent about it. He announced he was doing it saying his views have evolved, after which social media users furiously comb through and save his old posts. The internet is forever folks.
  4. And no wonder he’s doing this. He “called Hillary Clinton incredibly competent and appeared to be at odds with his new boss on issues such as gun control, climate change, Islam and illegal immigration …”
  5. Doctors diagnose John McCain with aggressive brain cancer, the same one that both Ted Kennedy and Beau Biden had.
  6. Trump says Akie Abe, the wife of China’s prime minister, didn’t talk to him at the G20 dinner because she doesn’t speak any English. But she speaks it pretty well.
  7. In areas of Texas where Planned Parenthood facilities closed and abstinence-only sex ed is taught, the teen abortion rate has increased 3%. Meanwhile, the nationwide trend has been decreasing.
  8. Trump nominates Sam Clovis as head of science at the USDA. Clovis is a former radio talk show host who doesn’t have a background in science. This, even though the role is only available to scientists according to congressional rules. He also denies anthropogenic global warming.
  9. As a way to address problems around the opioid epidemic, a judge gives Tennessee inmates an option: early release or long-term contraception (vasectomy for men or contraceptive implant for women).
  10. Jared Kushner failed to disclose over 70 assets on his initial financial disclosure. He’s updated the disclosure over 30 times since March. This affects Ivanka as well as the disclosure includes family members.
  11. An interesting legal battle is brewing between federal agencies over ExxonMobil’s alleged violation of Russia sanctions. The violation occurred in 2014 under the helm of Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, and Exxon was fined $2 million. In response, Exxon named Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin in a legal complaint.
  12. Tillerson hires consulting companies Deloitte and Insigniam to help with the State Department reorganization.
  13. New Hampshire becomes the 22nd state to legalize pot.
  14. One reason for the slowdown in the vetting process for Trump’s nominees is that we’ve never had so many nominees with such complex financial holdings and conflicts of interest. Several of them dropped out because they got frustrated with having to comply with the ethics rules.

Polls:

  1. Only 45% of Republicans believe that Donald Trump Jr. met with a Russian lawyer during the elections. Even though he not only said he met with Russians to get dirt on Hillary, but also tweeted out the entire email thread.
  2. A Bloomberg poll finds that 61% of Americans think we’re headed in the wrong direction, and 55% view Trump unfavorably.
  3. Trump’s approval is at 36%, lower than any other president at this time. His disapproval rating in 59%.

Stupid Things Politicians Say:

  1. OK. This isn’t really stupid, just something to think about. Ben Carson says:
    “Let me put it this way. I’m glad that Trump is drawing all the fire so I can get stuff done.”
    So maybe we should be paying more attention to what the federal departments and agencies are actually doing instead of to what Trump isn’t getting done.

Week 23 in Trump

Posted on July 3, 2017 in Politics, Trump

With friends like these… as the healthcare battle heats up, Republicans start turning on their own, with a GOP PAC pushing ads against holdout senators and major donors threatening to shut their purses until they start seeing some action.

After the PAC attack on Dean Heller, Josh Holmes, Mr. McConnell’s former chief of staff, said, “That the White House is asking people to take a tough vote and then running ads against members while we’re still in negotiations is so dumb it’s amazing we even have to have the conversation.”

Here’s what happened this week in Trump:

Russia:

  1. Trump remains quiet about what he plans to do to prevent Russian interference in our elections in the future. He has never asked Comey how to stop a future cyber/disinformation attack, and Jeff Sessions has never received a classified briefing on the issue.
  2. Paul Manafort reveals that his firm received over $17 million from the Ukraine’s Party of Regions, which is affiliated with the Kremlin. He didn’t reveal this at the time it happened, which is required by law.
  3. Matt Tait, a security consultant, says that Peter Smith, a Republican opposition researcher, recruited him to authenticate the veracity of some hacked emails that were claimed to come from Clinton’s private server. He never completed the task and the emails seem to have been a hoax, but…
  4. It turns out that Smith claimed to represent Michael Flynn in an effort to find emails that Clinton deleted hoping to use them against her in the election. Smith also supported Flynn in his effort to establish relations with Russian officials. Smith spoke to the Wall Street Journal about this story 10 days before he died on May 14 (at age 81, no foul play suspected). Interesting fact: Smith funded the troopergate investigation into Clinton, bankrolled David Bock to smear Clinton, and tried to find a woman who would initiate a paternity suit against Clinton.
  5. Tait says he received a recruitment document from Smith listing these senior officials of the Trump campaign or staff: Steve Bannon, Kellyanne Conway, Sam Clovis, Lt. Gen. Flynn, and Lisa Nelson.
  6. The document also lists a company Smith had set up, KLS Research, to avoid campaign reporting. It’s not clear who all was involved in that.
  7. U.S. intelligence reports that Russian hackers were looking for an intermediary through which they could get emails to Flynn last year, which fits into the role Smith was playing.

Courts/Justice:

  1. The Supreme Court rules that state grants that are available to nonprofits can’t be denied to a church-run school. This ruling applied specifically to playground safety, but it opens the door for taxpayers to provide funds to religious organizations.
  2. The Supreme Court says they’ll hear the gay wedding cake case (the one where some business owners want it to be legal to discriminate against gay couples).
  3. The compliance counsel at the DOJ, Hui Chen, resigns saying that the administration doesn’t live up to the standards she’s supposed to be enforcing in the business world.

Healthcare:

  1. After a group aligned with Trump and Pence went after Nevada Senator Dean Heller last week for his refusal to support the healthcare bill, Mitch McConnell called the White House to complain, calling the attack “beyond stupid.” The group pulls the ad campaign.
  2. The CBO scores the Senate’s healthcare plan. They estimate that 22 million Americans will lose healthcare coverage over the next decade, just slightly better then the 23 million that would lose it under the House plan. The CBO also estimates that premiums would rise before falling to less than under the ACA, out-of-pocket costs would increase, and there would be fewer covered benefits. But hey, we’ll save about $320 billion over 10 years.
  3. Senate republicans add a provision to their bill that would prevent someone with a lapse in coverage from receiving coverage for 6 months.
  4. Kellyanne Conway says people who lose Medicaid should look into getting jobs. Nearly 70% of able recipients already do work, but maybe we could find jobs for some of those folks in nursing homes?
  5. Despite continual promises that, no matter what, a vote will be held on the healthcare bill, Mitch McConnell abruptly announces that he’s postponing the vote until after the July 4 recess. Earlier he had warned that if the repeal doesn’t get done this week, the GOP would lose all leverage and be forced to compromise with Democrats.
  6. Trump invites all Republican senators to the White House for a meeting, during which he says “This will be great if we get it done. And if we don’t get it done, it’s just going to be something that we’re not going to like. And that’s OK, and I understand that very well.”
  7. After the meeting, some senators express that they don’t think Trump understands the bill and that Trump seemed surprised that some are calling it a tax break for the rich.
  8. A bipartisan group of governors who have been conspiring quietly on blocking the healthcare bill come out strongly against it this week. When Republican senators come home for July recess, these governors push back hard.
  9. But never ones to give up hope, GOP senators are working behind the scenes to change the bill enough to bring on more votes. Expect this to continue throughout the recess.
  10. While the hardliners want to cut more money from the healthcare bill, Trump says in a speech this week, “Add some money to it!”
  11. Trump later says they should just repeal the ACA and replace it at a later date. This is concerning because they don’t have anything they can agree on after 6 years of wanting it, and not having a replacement will knock even more people off insurance.
  12. The White House later denies that Trump has changed his mind on this.
  13. Forty economists write a letter to McConnell saying that the healthcare bill is a giant step in the wrong direction.
  14. Educators and school leaders come out against the healthcare bill, especially in depressed areas where the school nurse and therapists are reimbursed through Medicaid and tools are provided for students with special needs.

International:

  1. French President Macron invites Trump to France for Bastille Day.
  2. Trump looks at cracking down on Pakistani militants launching attacks on neighboring Afghanistan, including drone strikes and withholding aid from Pakistan.
  3. Trump is behind on getting foreign ambassadors nominated and confirmed. His are taking an average of 77 days, Obama’s took 26 days, and Bush’s took 11 days. The holdup seems to be in his formal submissions for approval.
  4. The CEO of the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation expresses concerns over the massive foreign aid cuts in Trump’s budget (which is less than 1% of our budget). A large amount of global progress in health and development is because of us. Private philanthropy can’t make up for it. The cuts would:
    • Make it harder for NGOs to eradicate diseases (the ebola outbreak is an example of how this affects us at home).
    • Make it harder to help women with reproductive health and choice.
    • Make it harder for President Bush’s PEPFAR program to prevent AIDs. In countries where PEPFAR is established, political instability has dropped 40%.
  5. The House Appropriations Committee approves an amendment that would revoke the president’s war authority, requiring congressional approval. It would repeal the Authorization for Use of Military Force (AUMF) bill passed in response to 9/11. Representative Barbara Lee (D-Calif.) has been trying to get this passed for years.
  6. The U.S. plans a $1.42 billion arms deal with Taiwan, sure to invoke a reaction from China.
  7. Tillerson and Mattis continue to work behind the scenes to find a solution to the stand-off in the Mideast between Qatar and four other nations. They are still at odds with Trump and Kushner on this because Qatar is actually a strategic ally for us.
  8. The UN agrees to a $570 million budget cut for its peacekeeping missions. The administration had fought for even larger cuts.

Legislation:

  1. The House passes two bills that target undocumented immigrants. Kate’s Law increases maximum penalties for deported immigrants who repeatedly try to enter the U.S. The No Sanctuary for Criminals Act eliminates federal grants for sanctuary cities and allows victims of crimes by undocumented immigrants sue those cities.
  2. Kentucky Governor Matt Bevin signs HB 128 into law, letting schools teach bible classes. No word on whether the Quran and Bhagavad Gita are also allowed.

Travel Ban/Immigration/Discrimination:

  1. The Supreme Court agrees to hear the travel ban in the next session, but reinstates parts of it with strict guidelines. The ban won’t affect anyone with a bona fide relationship with an entity in the U.S. People can come here for family, work, school, and so on. The court agrees to hear it in October, by which point it could be moot. That’s plenty of time for the administration to review it’s vetting policies. For an idea of how the justices feel about immigration and discrimination, Thomas, Alito, and Gorsuch all would have reinstated the ban in its entirety.
  2. The administration issues guidelines for implementing the ban. People coming from the banned countries must have work, school, or close family ties—extended family (like grandparents, aunts and uncles, or nieces and nephews) does not count. Anyone with legal documents should be allowed in. Refugees are banned for 120 days. Somehow a step-sibling is defined as closer than a grandparent.
  3. Khaled Almilaji is a renowned Syrian doctor who ran a campaign to vaccinate 1.4 million Syrian children. Because of the ban, he gives up on returning to the U.S., opting for Canada instead.
  4. The Supreme Court overturns an Arkansas court and says that Arkansas discriminated against a lesbian couple by forcing them to go to court to get both women’s names on their child’s birth certificate. Under Arkansas law, a woman’s husband is listed as the father even if he’s not the biological father; gay couples want the same treatment.
  5. About a thousand military recruits are waiting for basic training but had their visas expire during their wait, leaving them undocumented. They were recruited for a fast-track citizenship program for their medical and language skills.
  6. The Texas Supreme Court rules against government-sponsored spousal benefit requirements for same-sex marriages. See you in the Supreme Court, I’m sure.
  7. Trump appoints Bethany Kozma, an anti-transgender activist, to the office of Gender Equality and Women’s Empowerment.
  8. The administration disbands the White House Council on Women and Girls.
  9. Jim Mattis delays a plan to allow transgender recruits in the military.
  10. June ends with no recognition of Pride Month from White House.
  11. White House aide Stephen Miller pushes Rex Tillerson to get tougher on immigration, which just seems to piss Tillerson off.

Climate/EPA:

  1. Emails show that the EPA’s chief of staff pressured one of the agency’s top scientists to change her testimony in a congressional hearing to downplay the firing of 57 scientific advisors. Scientists think the firings are evidence of the weakened role of science in the Trump administration. “The Board of Scientific Counselors had 68 members two months ago. It will have 11 come Sept. 1,” Dr. Swackhamer said. “They’ve essentially suspended scientific activities by ending these terms. We have no meetings scheduled, no bodies to do the work.”
  2. The House Science Committee majority sends daily emails to members and staff. This isn’t new, but now the emails include links to conservative media that deny global warming, including Breitbart, the Daily Mail, and Koch media sources like the Washington Free Beacon and the Daily Caller.
  3. Per Trump’s executive order, Scott Pruitt delivers a proposal to rescind Obama’s Waters of the United States (Wotus) protections. This will likely be a long legal battle. Wotus adds onto the Clean Water Act by protecting not only large bodies of water, but also smaller waterways that feed into them. The reversal removes protections from one-third of U.S. drinking water, and the administration openly admits it’s a business decision.
  4. Less than a month after meeting with the CEO of Dow Chemical, Scott Pruitt announces that the EPA would no longer pursue a ban on a Dow pesticide known to impact the development of brains of fetuses and infants.
  5. It looks like Rick Perry is going to get his wish for a red-team, blue-team climate study, which pits scientists with opposing views against each other basically trying to poke holes in the other’s research. Scott Pruitt plans to launch a critique of climate science with the goal of challenging mainstream climate science. Fingers crossed that they’ll do this right.
  6. Florida Governor Rick Scott sign HB 989, which lets Floridians object to specific teaching tools. This bill is widely regarded to be aimed at global warming and evolution. Anybody can complain, even if they don’t have a child in school, and a hearing officer must review each complaint.
  7. A coal power plant in central Mississippi gives up on it’s efforts to create clean coal power by capturing emissions. The technology isn’t working, so they plan to burn natural gas instead.

Budget/Economy:

  1. Janet Yellen says she doesn’t expect another major financial crisis in her lifetime, thanks to the consumer protections written into the banking reforms under Obama. She adds that unwinding those reforms would be a bad thing. Also that same day I got an email from Paul Ryan touting the House bill that reverses some of those banking reforms…
  2. The fight over tax reform is on in the House, upending a tentative agreement that would’ve initiated the process of tax reform and causing the budget committee to cancel their work this week.
  3. The dollar falls to 12-month low against the euro.
  4. Some Republican-dominated states are starting to approve significant tax increases after working for years under the theory that lower taxes lead to a stronger economy. Notably Kansas, South Carolina, and Tennessee are raising taxes to meet revenue requirements. This could pose a challenge to tax reform at the federal level.

Elections:

  1. Trump’s voter fraud commission asks states to provide detailed information about every voter in their systems, including addresses, 10-year voting histories, party registrations, and the last four digits of SSNs. This commission is headed by Mike Pence and Kris Kobach, who has written some of the harshest and most litigated voter suppression laws.
  2. While some states merely express concern about the request, at least 24 say they will not comply. Primary concerns are constitutionality, privacy, what the commission plans to do with the data, and how the data will be protected from Russian hackers.
  3. Trump wonders what these states are trying to hide.
  4. Kobach tried to implement a smaller version of this database in Kansas, and has been sued repeatedly for it and even fined in the process.
  5. Kobach promises to make some of the collected information public, though not the most sensitive information.
  6. The commission told states to send the information to an unsecured email address.
  7. And finally, Mike Pence’s state of Indiana says they won’t comply, and Kobach announces that his own state, Kansas, won’t comply with the request. WTF??

Miscellaneous:

  1. The AP releases an analysis showing how partisan gerrymandering has benefited the GOP, finding that Republicans widened or retained power because of the district lines they drew. The AP looked at all 435 House races and about 4,700 state seats. Four times as many states have Republican skewed districts than Democratic ones.
  2. Sean Spicer continues to ban live broadcasts and video recordings of the daily briefings.
  3. Europe gets hit with another ransomware attack called Petya.
  4. Time magazine finds that fake covers featuring Trump are hanging in many of his country clubs. They ask the Trump Organization to remove them all.
  5. Trump’s lawyer, Jay Sekalow, is accused of filtering millions from his charity to his family and himself.
  6. Spokesperson Sarah Huckabee Sanders accuses the media of being fake news while telling them to watch a video that might be fake news. In a briefing, she denounced the media (to a room full of the media) for producing fake news, using CNN’s recent retraction as an example AND telling journalists to watch a video by the discredited James O’Keefe as proof, though with the caveat ″whether it’s accurate or not I don’t know…″ Playboy reporter Brian Karem unloaded on her for inflaming a room full of journalists who’re just trying to get the story right while the White House continues to lie to them (and can I say, that was a beautiful moment).
  7. Tillerson blows up—I mean really blows up—at a high-level aide, apparently from building frustration about not being able to staff up his department because of White House oversight.
  8. Trump holds a fundraiser for his re-election campaign in 3 years at his own hotel.
  9. Trump continues to call Democrats on the Hill obstructionists, even though they tried working with him at first and they’ve offered to work together on healthcare. Everyone probably could’ve worked together on an infrastructure bill, but that good will is gone now.
  10. Trump goes on a bizarre Twitter rant where he says Joe Scarborough and Mika Brzezinski (of Morning Joe) tried to get into Mar-a-Lago last winter and that Mika was bleeding from a bad facelift.
  11. This results in a unified, bipartisan chorus of protests that the tweets went too far…from pretty much everybody except Sarah Huckabee Sanders who defended the tweet.
  12. Then Joe and Mika accuse White House staff members of trying to blackmail them by promising to stop a negative story about Mika in the Enquirer if they apologized to Trump for their coverage of him.
  13. While the majority of Democrats are counseling against talk of impeachment, a group of House Democrats push a bill that would create a commission to investigate Trump and, if applicable, use the 25th amendment to remove Trump from office.
  14. Ivanka Trump, senior advisor to the president, says she tries to stay out of politics.
  15. The Inspector General clears the National Park Service of charges that they altered pictures of the sizes of crowds at Trump’s and Obama’s inaugurations. Whew. I was worried.
  16. Trump reportedly watches five hours of TV per day.
  17. The birth rate for teenage girls dropped 67% from 1991 to last year. It’s now at an all-time low and doctors point to knowledge of and access to contraceptives.
  18. Trump sends federal agents to help Chicago deal with its crime problem.
  19. Jason Chaffetz’ last day as a representative is this week. I don’t understand at all why he quit 6 months into his term.
  20. Impeachment marches and counter protests are held across the country.
  21. The last staffers of the science division at the White House leave this week. They were charged with policy issues like STEM education, biotechnology, and crisis response.
  22. Public beaches in New Jersey are closed Sunday due to a budget impasse. Chris Christie takes his family to the beach while all other beach goers are turned away.

Polls:

  1. The annual Pew Research Global Attitudes survey shows that 22% of people outside the U.S. have confidence that Trump will do the right thing, compared with 64% who had confidence in Obama at the same stage of his presidency. Trump rated higher than Obama in only 2 of the 37 countries polled: Russia and Israel.
  2. 74% in the Pew survey don’t trust Trump to do the right thing versus 59% who think the same of Putin.
  3. The survey also finds that U.S. favorability abroad has dropped from 64% to 49% under Trump.

Week 14 In Trump

Posted on May 1, 2017 in Politics, Trump

Quote of the week:

“I love my previous life. I had so many things going. I, actually, this is more work than in my previous life,” Trump said. “I thought it would be easier. I thought it was more of a — I’m a details-oriented person I think you would say that. But I do miss my old life. I like to work so that’s not a problem but this is actually more work.”

Anybody who thinks presidenting is easy — in fact anyone who doesn’t think it’s just about the hardest job in the world — has never really paid attention to our government.

Russia:

  1. The Senate Intelligence Committee adds more staffers to help investigate Russia ties after they are criticized for the slow pace of their investigation.
  2. The slow pace also generates a bigger push for an independent investigation (73% of Americans want one).
  3. Rep. Jason Chaffetz says that it appears Michael Flynn broke the law in accepting foreign money for appearances and lobbying because as a retired Lieutenant General he is required to obtain permission.
  4. Sean Spicer shifts blame to the Obama administration for having given Flynn security clearance, though Obama had also fired Flynn. Meanwhile, the White House refuses to turn over the documents requested by the oversight committee, something Spicer denies.
  5. The Defense Department inspector general also launches an investigation into Michael Flynn.

 

Courts/Justice:

  1. Arkansas forges ahead with their executions, killing three more inmates this week.
  2. Trump says he’ll get rid of the requirement that employers provide birth-control coverage to their employees, but the DoJ indicates that they intend to continue fighting for that coverage.
  3. The Senate confirms Rod Rosenstein as Deputy Attorney General, and he’ll be taking over handling of the Russia probe.
  4. We learn that the DoJ, in a 180-degree turn, has withdrawn a primary claim against a Texas voter ID law. The DoJ until now has maintained that the law was written with discriminatory intent, a reversal that indicates the DoJ’s new position toward protecting minority interests. Or toward not protecting those interests.
  5. In response to a California judge ruling against Trump’s financial threats against sanctuary cities, Trump says he’s considering breaking apart the ninth circuit court of appeals, apparently unaware of presidential limits.
  6. In the ongoing conflict between North Carolina’s Republican legislature and its new Democratic governor, the legislature is trying to pass bills that would strip Governor Cooper of his ability to fill seats on the state court of appeals. In response, conservative Republican Judge J. Douglas McCullough steps down a month before his required retirement date to allow the governor to appoint someone to fill his seat. He is so opposed to the Republican antics that he is willing to have a Democrat replace him on the bench.

Healthcare:

  1. The GOP works again to revise their healthcare bill so they can bring it to a vote, this time catering to the interests of the Freedom Caucus.
  2. Changes to the bill give states more flexibility, letting them apply for waivers to some provisions. This includes rules around pre-existing conditions, patient age, prescription drug coverage, and mental health coverage.
  3. According to the Kaiser Family Foundation, government costs would actually increase by $2.3 billion if they stop paying the ACA subsidies (as has been threatened in order to make the system fail).
  4. 79% of Americans say Trump should try to make the ACA work instead of trying to make it fail quickly. 50% of Americans don’t have faith in the replacement plan for the ACA.
  5. The UN sends a letter to the Trump administration warning that repealing the ACA without a robust replacement that ensures coverage is available to all could violate our obligations to international law.
  6. The House fails again to pull together enough votes to repeal and replace the ACA. The latest iteration got the Freedom Caucus on board, but lost moderate Republicans.
  7. Rep. Warren Davidson tells a woman at a town hall that her son isn’t skilled enough to have insurance coverage. When later asked about it, he reiterated that healthcare coverage is something we have to earn.

International:

  1. French President Hollande throws his support behind Emmanuel Macron in next month’s elections, calling on voters to reject far-right candidate Marine Le Pen.
  2. All the Senators are bused up to the White House for a briefing on North Korea by Rex Tillerson, Jim Mattis, Dan Coats, and General Joseph Dunford.
  3. Trump says that there could be a “major, major” conflict with North Korea. While most Senators and news media agree the situation is bad, Fox News says tensions are at a “fever pitch.”
  4. North Korea launches yet another ballistic missile test. Like the last one, this missile also fails.
  5. Secretary Mattis travels to Afghanistan to figure out how to handle the issue of Russia supplying the Taliban with weapons.
  6. In retaliation for Syria’s chemical attack, the U.S. imposes new sanctions against them.
  7. A Russian spy ship collides with a freighter and sinks in the Black Sea.
  8. The Trumps host Mauricio Macri, the president of Argentina, and his wife at the White House.
  9. Trump invites Philippine strongman (and human rights violator) Rodrigo Duterte for a White House visit.
  10. In continuing his moves to stifle dissent and free speech, Turkish President Erdogan fires around 4,000 government workers, and bans access to Wikipedia and certain TV shows countrywide. Remember Erdogan is the guy Trump called to congratulate on his win in consolidating power.
  11. The State Department wants to vet any remarks made by Nikki Haley before she speaks.

Legislation:

  1. In yet another move to pretend Obama’s presidency never happened, Trump signs an executive order to review our national monuments (federally protected and owned land). In fairness, this affects all monuments, not just those designated by Obama; however Trump has specifically pointed out those that were designated by Obama as inhibiting development. He can either abolish the designations or make the monuments smaller.
  2. The next day he tweets “As families prepare for summer vacations in our National Parks – Democrats threaten to close them and shut down the government. Terrible!” A little disconnect?
  3. In response to the executive order, clothing maker Patagonia threatens legal action.
  4. The FCC proposes rules to weaken net neutrality. More than 800 leaders of U.S. start-ups signed a letter to Ajit Pai, FCC chairman, asking that these rules not be changed. In brief, net neutrality forces ISPs to treat all packets of information equally. For example, they can’t charge Hulu more for data than Netflix or YouTube, and they can’t slow down one person’s data so another’s can flow faster.
  5. Trump signs an executive order around agriculture, which instructs Sonny Perdue (Secretary of Agriculture) to review regulations and identify unnecessary rules that can be eliminated. It creates a new task force to make recommendations on existing food and agriculture policies that could hinder profit-making of agribusiness.
  6. Trump signs an executive order to encourage offshore drilling in the Arctic and Atlantic oceans, making federal waters available for oil and gas leasing. Many cities and states have their own laws around this, so parts of the Atlantic may still be off limits.
  7. Despite his criticism of executive orders, especially of Obama’s use of executive orders, Trump ends the week with 32 executive orders under his belt, the most of any president in their first 100 days since WWII.
  8. Trump ends his first 100 days having signed 29 pieces of legislation from Congress, 11 of which do nothing more than repeal Obama-era rules and regulations.

Travel Ban/Immigration/Discrimination:

  1. According to the Anti-Defamation League, anti-semitic incidents are up 86% the first three months of this year compared to the same period last year. Only around a third of those were the hoax bomb threats against Jewish community centers.
  2. The Trump administration awards GEO, a company that donated almost half a million dollars to his campaign, the contract for a private immigration detention center.
  3. A federal judge blocks the Trump administration’s attempts to cut funding to sanctuary cities. Trump accuses his opponents of “judge shopping.” Once again, the administration’s words come back to haunt them. They previously said they would wield funding like a weapon and bring sanctuary cities to their knees, among other threats. The judge took their statements into account in his ruling.
  4. Mexico expresses concern that the border wall could violate a 47-year-old treaty between the U.S. and Mexico, and also that a wall could worsen flooding in some areas. The decision could be left up to international courts if Mexico protests the wall based on the treaty.
  5. Trump and Republican leaders butt heads over LGBTQ protections versus religious rights. Trump wants protection policies to remain; Republicans favor restricting those policies based on religious liberty. Trump has in the past professed support for protecting the LGBTQ community.
  6. Homeland Security creates a new agency, Victims of Immigration Crime Engagement or Voice, or VOICE, to assist families of victims of crimes by undocumented immigrants, even though undocumented immigrants are less likely to commit crimes than citizens. Some of their work appears to duplicate work already being done by states and localities, such as VINE, or Victim Information and Notification Everyday.
  7. Of the undocumented immigrants targeted for deportation in the days after Trump took office, around half had either no criminal offenses or minor traffic offenses. The number of immigrants picked up represents about a 32% increase over the previous year.

Climate:

  1. Energy Secretary Rick Perry endorses renegotiating parts of the Paris agreement instead of simply withdrawing from it.
  2. Protestors against Trump’s climate policies march in cities across the country on Trump’s 100th day in support of science-based policies that support our health and the health of the planet.
  3. The night before the climate marches, the EPA removes its scientific climate change website from public view. The site is archived, and they say they’re updating it to match the new direction of the agency. This causes great concern in the scientific community, but we’ll see whether the info gets put back up.
  4. Because of climate change, coffee production has been in a deficit for the past 4 years. Meanwhile consumption is reaching an all-time high. But not to worry; scientists are on it, working on plants that can withstand disease and grow with less water.
  5. Ice roads in Canada are freezing later and melting earlier than before, reducing the window in which isolated residents can travel and goods can be trucked. The roads take longer to freeze and the ice isn’t as thick, making it more dangerous for travel.

Budget/Economy/Trade:

  1. Trump issues a tax plan, which is more like a wishlist than an actual plan. In short, the plan:
    • Cuts corporate taxes for businesses of all sizes, from the biggest to mom-and-pop stores.
    • Cuts the top tax rate by 4.6 points.
    • Eliminates the ACA tax of 3.8% on top earners, bringing their total tax cut to 8.4 points.
    • Eliminates the estate tax and the alternative minimum tax (AMT).
    • Increases the standard deduction to help middle class earners (this might require eliminating other deductions).
    • Doesn’t include tax revenue to support the infrastructure plan.
    • Rejects the border tariff proposed by House Republicans.
    • Creates a loophole where people could create pass-through corporations and lower their effective tax rate to 15%.
    • Eliminates the state and local tax deductions from federal income tax.
  2. Analysts say the economy would have to grow by 5% to make up for the budget shortfall.
  3. The Tax Policy Center estimates the cuts will reduce federal revenue by $6.2 trillion over 10 years.
  4. Mnuchin says he can’t guarantee that the middle class won’t pay more under the new tax bill but he says there should be no absolute tax breaks for the wealthy. Even though their tax bracket is dropping at least four points. I’m trying to work out the math here…
  5. Analysts say that the economic policies in the tax plan don’t support policies in Trump’s trade and immigration plans. They say he needs an overall economic vision that brings all the different pieces together, a vision that is currently lacking.
  6. Trump orders a 20% tariff on softwood lumber coming in from Canada, which is predicted to increase the cost of new homes. He argues that the lumber is unfairly subsidized which hurts lumber companies in the U.S., but this seems to be in response to an import tax Canada on U.S. dairy products processed in a certain way (the processing style was used as a way to get around NAFTA trade rules).
  7. Democrats say they’ll stall the spending bill and risk a government shutdown if the healthcare vote happens this week.
  8. On Wednesday, Congress leans toward signing a one-week extension to the budget to keep the government going.
  9. Trump throws in a wrench by making demands to begin funding the border wall and to begin defunding the ACA (specifically the payments that help low-income people).
  10. Trump backs away from his demands around the border wall and the ACA this go around.
  11. Or wait, does he really?
  12. Yes. Yes, he does.
  13. Ryan says the spending bill will not include ACA payments that help lower-income people afford care.
  14. Or wait, will it?
  15. Yes. Yes, it will include those payments.
  16. The House and Senate pass a short-term budget bill to prevent a shutdown. The vote didn’t hinge on any healthcare changes nor on any funding for the wall.
  17. Also in the bill, the NIH will get a $2 billion dollar increase, a rejection of Trump’s cuts to the agency in his proposed budget.
  18. The White House submits a draft proposal to withdraw from NAFTA. Republicans and Democrats in Congress both say hold up, wait a minute here.
  19. Trump threatens to terminate NAFTA, causing shakeups in the markets, Congress, Canada, and Mexico.
  20. After both Mexican and Canadian leaders phone Trump, he agrees not to terminate NAFTA. It seems that what actually convinced him, though, was Sonny Perdue, Secretary of Agriculture, showing him map of the farmers who would be negatively affected by scrapping NAFTA and telling him that these are Trump voters.
  21. The latest numbers show that the U.S. had sluggish economic growth last quarter at just .7%, the weakest in three years. Consumer spending was down as well. This might not have much to do with Trump, though, as we’re still on Obama’s budget.

Miscellaneous:

  1. To add to Fox’s public image issues, a new class-action lawsuit against the media conglomerate alleges racial discrimination.
  2. The Senate denies Breitbart’s request for permanent press pass credentials saying they need answers to more questions.
  3. It’s another bad week for Alex Jones of InfoWars, who is in the middle of a custody suit. Chobani sues him for defamation after Jones linked the founder of the company to a sexual assault case and accused him of importing refugee rapists. And then Jones lost his custody suit.
  4. The State Department removes a page on its website featuring Mar-a-Lago after criticism that it used government resources to basically advertise the resort.
  5. The Senate confirms Alexander Acosta as Secretary of Labor.
  6. Trump thought once he won, the press would be kinder to him.
  7. Trump speaks at the annual NRA meeting in Atlanta, the first sitting president since Ronald Reagan in 1983 to do so.
  8. Ivanka travels to Germany for a panel discussion on women’s economic empowerment, on Angela Merkel’s invite. The first day doesn’t go well as she’s forced to defend her father to a skeptical audience.
  9. Ann Coulter is speaking at UC Berkeley. Then she’s not (UCB postponed for security concerns). Then she is (forget security, I’ll just speak in a public square). Then she’s not (she lost the support of the groups who asked her to speak). The primary catalyst here is the security concern with far right and far left extremist groups, but the issue quickly escalates into accusations of free speech infringement.
  10. Paul Ryan is less popular than Donald Trump with just a 22% approval rating.
  11. A new poll shows that most Trump voters do believe that Obama was spying on the Trump campaign.
  12. And finally of note this week is this Politico story about press office lies. It seems the press were warned from the start that the White House would feed them lies just to mess with them. Staffers lie more for sport than for furthering any agenda; it’s all a game. Information is plentiful when you’re doing a story on palace intrigue, but not so much when it comes to actual policy. What they say off the record is far more accurate than what they say on the record, especially when it comes to TV appearances. For example, Spicer has lied or mislead 51 times in his briefings.

Week 12 in Trump

Posted on April 17, 2017 in Politics, Trump

In week 12, we had the usual international intrigue, quietly signed resolutions, and a number of policy reversals. I also added a new category, Stupid Things Politicians Say. Sadly necessary.

Here’s what happened last week.

Russian Investigation:

  1. American authorities request the arrest of Russian hacker Peotr Levashov in Spain. His wife had told Russian state media RT that he was one of the hackers involved in the 2016 U.S. elections.
  2. Documents show that Paul Manafort actively courted Trump in order to get a foothold in his campaign. Manafort claims it was the other way around.
  3. Tillerson says Russia needs to confront their meddling in our elections and Europe’s to evaluate how it fits in with their long-term goals. He also says that things won’t improve between our countries as long as this is ongoing.
  4. Both Republicans and Democrats in the House review the documents that Devin Nunes saw at the White House and that he later said unmasked the names of Trump associates who were incidentally surveilled. Members of both parties agree that there’s no there there. Nunes’ original reaction appears to have led to Trump’s accusations of Susan Rice, but it seems Rice hasn’t done anything illegal or out of the usual.
  5. We now know that the FBI obtained a secret FISA warrant last year to surveil communications of Carter Page, who was an adviser to Trump at the time. This indicates that federal agencies had probable cause to think that Page is or was an agent of a foreign power (or in layman’s terms, a spy).
  6. Documents surface that confirm that a pro-Russian political party in the Ukraine made payments to Paul Manafort. This supports the “black ledger” that was found last year with a list of payments along with accusations that money was being laundered through his company.

Courts/Justice:

  1. Neil Gorsuch is sworn in as a Supreme Court justice.
  2. In another strike against gerrymandering, a federal judge upheld a lower court’s 2014 ruling that a Texas voter ID law passed in 2011 had the intent to discriminate against blacks and Latinos. This opens the possibility that certain Texas districts could be placed under preclearance, which means they can’t implement any voting changes without approval from the U.S. Attorney General or the U.S. District Court for D.C.
  3. Gerrymandering continues to be a big issue in the courts – there are at least six active cases. As one radio host told his guest this week “I’m sorry to keep bringing you back on the same goddamn law.”
  4. AG Jeff Sessions plans to end the National Commission on Forensic Science, a scientific partnership to improve forensic science standards. The commission was chartered by Obama in 2013, so I can only assume this is why it’s being disbanded.
  5. It turns out that the money behind Gorsuch’s ad campaign came from the Judicial Crisis Network.
  6. Impeachment hearings begin for Alabama’s governor Robert Bentley. Bentley is accused of using government resources to cover up an affair. He subsequently resigns and is replaced by Lt. Gov. Kay Ivey.
  7. Based on requests from Elizabeth Warren and Elijah Cummings, the GAO announces an investigation into Trump’s transition regarding the use of funds and conflicts of interest.
  8. In response to lawsuits accusing Trump of inciting violence at some of his campaign rallies, his legal team says he is immune from lawsuits because he won the election. Hmmm… they might want to revisit Jones v. Clinton.

Healthcare:

  1. Trump says he wants to renew efforts at repealing and replacing the ACA.
  2. Trump threatens to withhold ACA payments to insurance companies in the billions of dollars in order to cause the healthcare system to blow up. He thinks this will force Democrats to work with him on a solution. Insurance companies warn that this would cause chaos in the individual markets.
  3. The administration later recants and continues to make the payments, possibly because the CBO found that the healthcare exchanges are likely to stay stable and Standard & Poor found that the markets could become profitable, refuting the theory that the ACA is in a death spiral.

International:

  1. The White House accuses Putin of trying to hide Assad’s role in the chemical attack the previous week, and officials think that Putin was aware of the attack before it happened. There is no evidence Russia was involved, though a Russian drone flying over the hospital that Assad later bombed could point to some coordination.
  2. Putin suggests that the chemical attack was a false flag attack, designed by the U.S. to frame Assad. He also compares the U.S. assessment of the Syrian chemical attack to us going into Iraq based on (seemingly incorrect) intelligence over weapons of mass destruction. Even though the results of this attack are readily apparent.
  3. After several days of back and forth over whether it would happen, Tillerson meets in person with Putin. Both agree that relations between our countries are at a low.
  4. Tillerson says Russia has to choose between Assad and the US.
  5. Russia vetoes a UN resolution that would’ve required Assad to cooperate with an independent investigation into the chemical attacks.
  6. Trump hasn’t tried to set up a meeting with Pope Francis during the G7 summit in Italy. This is a pretty unusual omission for a sitting president.
  7. A bomb explodes near the German soccer team’s bus. The suspect is an Iraqi with alleged ties to ISIS, though there is no solid evidence as of now.
  8. Hot on the heels of the 59 tomahawk missiles launched at Syria, the U.S. drops the MOAB (mother of all bombs), our largest non-nuclear bomb, in Afghanistan with the intent to destroy a network of tunnels and caves used by ISIS. It’s reported that 94 ISIS military were killed, and a network of tunnels and caves was destroyed along with weapons and ammunition.
  9. The U.S. warns of using a preemptive strike against North Korea if we suspect they’re going to test a nuclear weapon. North Korea responds by saying they’d strike first.
  10. China mobilizes 25,000 troops and its military is on nationwide alert given the tensions with North Korea. China is urging cool heads and de-escalation between the U.S. and North Korea.
  11. The day before Easter and the day after its annual military parade, North Korea attempted another missile launch which failed, blowing up almost immediately.
  12. A North Korean official says that Trump’s tweets are behind the escalating tensions between us.
  13. In Syria, a U.S. drone attack killed at least 18 Syrian allies in what the Pentagon is calling the worst friendly fire incident in the war against ISIS.
  14. Interesting comparison on support for airstrikes in Syria:
    • In 2013, 38% of Democrats supported them; in 2017, that number is 37%.
    • In 2103, 22% of Republican supported them; in 2017, that number is 86%.

Legislation:

  1. In Alabama, the Senate votes to allow the Briarwood Presbyterian church in Birmingham to form its own police force.
  2. The New York legislature passes a law making tuition at state or city colleges free for residents making less than a specified income. This will be phased in over three years.
  3. Trump signs another resolution overturning Obama-era rules. This reversal allows states to defund clinics that perform abortions even though federal funds legally cannot be used to fund abortions.
  4. Later that same day, Trump signs the 13th resolution overturning Obama-era rules. This reversal cuts a Labor Department regulation that would’ve allowed states and counties to expand retirement savings accounts for people who don’t get those through their employers.

Travel Ban/Immigration/Discrimination:

  1. The North Caroline legislature puts forth a bill to ban same sex marriage in the state. The bill doesn’t make it to the house floor and won’t be heard this year.
  2. Two members of groups labeled as hate groups by the SPLC are assigned to positions in immigration agencies in the White House. John Feere worked at CIS and Julie Kirchner worked at FAIR.
  3. ICE officials stop distributing their weekly report of cities and counties not cooperating with immigration because they kept getting it wrong. This report is required as part of the executive orders signed by Trump in January.
  4. The U.S. tourism industry has upped their estimated losses to $7 billion due to extreme vetting and other travel-related regulations enacted by Trump.
  5. Newly released data show that phones are being searched twice as frequently this year as last year for travelers entering the U.S. The data also show that the searches primarily target Muslims and that the searches are often accompanied by hostile questioning.
  6. AG Sessions toured the U.S./Mexico border and unveiled new guidance for enforcing immigration law.

Climate/EPA:

  1. Scott Pruitt says we should exit the Paris climate accord, which has been endorsed by all but about 20 countries. However, according to the rules of the agreement, it takes three years for a country to withdraw with a one-year waiting period. So it wouldn’t happen until the current presidential term is up.
  2. Trump solicits comments from business leaders on which regulations to get rid of. Not surprisingly the EPA and labor are the two biggest targets. Look for more regulation changes to come around these suggestions.
  3. The EPA proposes cutting programs that protect children (and the rest of us) from lead exposure including lead paint removal regulations and emissions testing, the two largest contributors of exposure to lead. Studies show that exposure to too much lead as a child results in developmental issues and possible violence, and it is largely irreversible.
  4. Trump prepares an order to expand offshore drilling, including Arctic drilling.
  5. 61% of Americans disapprove of Trump’s handling of environmental issues. 79% of Americans under 35 disapprove.

Budget/Economy:

  1. The Trump administration looks to end the federal hiring freeze because of complaints that it’s hampering the government’s ability to get things done. Apparently the freeze increased the VA’s backlog of benefits claims, delayed processing Social Security payments, caused childcare facilities for military personnel to close, and reduced the number of FDA employees working on approving new drugs.
  2. Trump scraps the tax reform platform that was part of his election campaign and starts planning from scratch again. Time is tight, as Mnuchin set an August deadline for the plan.
  3. On top of the infrastructure plan being put on the back-burner, recent governmental actions will reduce infrastructure spending across the country. Cutbacks are largely around train lines and transportation grants.
  4. After Trump says that the dollar is getting too strong the dollar index reaches its lowest level of the month.
  5. The tax bill being drafted includes a repeal of the Johnson Amendment, which is in place to prevent church leaders from making political endorsements.
  6. 60% of Americans say that corporations and the very wealthy are likely not paying their fair share in taxes.
  7. The U.S. and China agree to a 100-day trade plan and avoid a trade war.
  8. The Office of Budget Management plans to send guidance to government agencies telling them to plan for big cuts.

Flip-flops:

In one week Trump changes his stance on a bunch of campaign statements.

  1. During the campaign, we were going to label China a currency manipulator. As of now, China is no longer a currency manipulator.
  2. During the campaign, NATO was an obsolete agency. As of now, NATO is no longer obsolete.
  3. During the campaign, Janet Yellen was ruining the country. As of now, Trump likes and respects Yellen and is considering keep her on.
  4. During the campaign, Trump thought low interest rates might cause a recession. As of now, he supports a low interest rate policy.
  5. During the campaign, Trump said “Our military is in shambles!” As of now, “It’s so incredible. It’s brilliant. It’s genius. Our technology, our equipment, is better than anybody by a factor of five.”
  6. During the campaign, Trump said the U.S. Export-Import Bank was excess garbage and agreed with conservatives on shutting it down. As of now, he says “It turns out that, first of all, lots of small companies are really helped, the vendor companies.”
  7. During the campaign, Trump said he would place steep tariffs on Chinese imports. As of now, he says there will be no 45% tariff on Chinese goods.
  8. During the campaign, Trump pushed a non-interventionist stance in Syria. As of now, he’s not only bombed Syria, but also increased troops on the ground.
  9. During the campaign, Trump promised to eliminate the debt in eight years. As of now, Mick Mulvaney says that was hyperbole.
  10. During the campaign, Wikileaks and Julian Assange were doing a service. As of now, Mike Pompeo says “WikiLeaks walks like a hostile intelligence service and talks like a hostile intelligence service.” He calls Assange a narcissist and a fraud.

Miscellaneous:

  1. In a newspaper interview, Trump appears to distance himself from Steve Bannon and diminished the role he played in the campaign. He won’t say whether he still has confidence in Bannon, and claims he didn’t know Bannon until the campaign even though they met six years ago.
  2. Firemen rescue Ben Carson and his wife from a stuck elevator in an affordable housing complex in Miami.
  3. Trump leaves for Mar-a-Lago a day early this week for the Easter weekend. This is his seventh trip there in 12 weeks.
  4. Betsy DeVos reverses some of Obama’s protections for student loan borrowers, including general auditing and accountability requirements for loaners.
  5. The White House announces that visitor logs will be kept secret. Three agencies sue for access.
  6. Trump’s approval rating ticks up a bit following his shows of force abroad.
  7. In what was expected to be the second biggest day of protest since the election, Tax Marches are held across the country to urge Trump to release his taxes for the past five years as is standard for recent presidents.
  8. Trump again claims the marchers are paid protestors, and I again respond, “where’s my #*$&* money?”
  9. In a Kansas district that Republicans have easily won by double-digit margins for the past 25 years, the Republican candidate won by only 7 points. Trump won by 27% and previous Republican candidates have won by margins greater than 30 points.

Stupid Things Politicians Say:

  1. Spicer puts his foot in his mouth while trying to make the point that those who support Assad are in the wrong: “You had someone as despicable as Hitler who didn’t even sink to chemical weapons.” He continued to dig himself deeper instead of just correcting himself.
  2. Defending his vote on internet privacy rules, Representative Jim Sensenbrenner (R – Wisconsin) says, “Nobody’s got to use the Internet.” Huh? Except anybody who works. Or goes to school. Or really, pretty much anyone in the U.S. who wants any chance at success.
  3. Representative Markwayne Mullin (R – Oklahoma) says at a town hall meeting with constituents, “You say you pay for me to do this? That’s bullcrap.” Then doubling down, he says “I pay for myself. I paid enough taxes before I got here and continue to through my company to pay my own salary. This is a service. No one here pays me to go.”

Week Eight In Trump

Posted on March 20, 2017 in Politics, Trump

This is by far the longest weekly recap yet. I didn’t think that much happened last week, but with so much up in the air, there was actually a lot going on. Here’s what happened last week:

  1. The CBO releases their report on the plan to replace the ACA. As far as healthcare goes, the report is pretty damaging, but it does predict that it would lower the deficit by $337 billion over the next decade.
  2. The White House and certain GOP members continue to try to delegitimize the CBO report, though the CBO is non-partisan and about the most reliable we have. Here’s a quick fact check on them.
  3. Paul Ryan says in an interview that the goal of the healthcare bill isn’t to insure all people; it’s to give all people choice of whether to buy insurance. That is, if you can afford it.
  4. Ryan says his plan gives people the freedom to buy the insurance that fits their needs (except you really don’t know what your needs are until they come up).
  5. Mick Mulvaney, head of the OMB, says that health insurance “is not really the end goal.” Trump has assured us in the past, though, that we’ll all have “beautiful” coverage.
  6. According to a Public Policy poll, 24% of Americans approve of the new healthcare plan. 47% approve of the ACA.
  7. There is growing concern around the CBO’s estimate that millions will lose healthcare under this bill, and additional organizations come out against the replacement bill, including the American Cancer Association.
  8. Republican Senators call for changes to the healthcare bill, saying it won’t pass the senate otherwise. They want lower costs for lower-income, older Americans, and more funding for states with high populations of hard to insure constituents. Conversely, some of the more conservative Republicans want to provide less funding.
  9. Close advisors to Trump urge him to distance himself from the healthcare reform bill, saying it will hurt him politically. The Trump team starts blaming problems with the bill on Ryan. Trump also admits the bill in its current form is not a good deal for his supporters.
  10. At the same time, Breitbart releases audio of Ryan from October saying he would never support Trump. That’s the sound of someone getting thrown under the bus.
  11. Tom Price claims that the government will pay for health coverage for those who need it, and everyone will be covered.
  12. Paul Ryan plans to modify the healthcare bill to make is easier for older Americans to buy insurance.
  13. Seems Verma, the top official for Medicaid, urges states to charge insurance premiums to people on Medicaid, make them pay part of their emergency room bills, and encouraged them to get jobs. Medicaid recipients are largely children, followed by disabled and elderly people who can’t work. But some do work and get paid so little they can’t afford basic care.
  14. Tom Price thinks that states should be able to decide whether or not to mandate vaccinations. Tom is a 3rd generation physician, so is certainly aware a) of the ravages of the diseases vaccines prevent, b) that the relationship between vaccines and autism has been scientifically discredited, and c) that we need a certain percentage of the population to be vaccinated in order to keep those diseases at bay.
  15. Trump issues an executive order to reorganize the executive branch, instructing each agency to look for ways to reorganize for efficiency, including the possible elimination of entire agencies.
  16. The Trump administration reverses Obama’s guidance on the Federal Family Education Loan (FFEL) program, which would have limited the fees that could be collected on loans that are past due, putting a greater financial burden on vulnerable borrowers.
  17. Sean Spicer walks back its claim that Obama wiretapped Trump’s phones. From CNN: “Trump didn’t mean wiretapping when he tweeted about wiretapping.”
  18. On Monday, the Justice Department fails to deliver the awaited evidence that Obama had wiretapped Trump. Devin Nunes, chair of the intelligence committee, threatens to subpoena any relevant information. He says  “clearly the president was wrong” if he literally meant that Obama had wiretapped his home.
  19. Spicer says that he’s confident evidence will surface that will prove Trump’s wiretapping claims.
  20. Kellyanne Conway introduces a novel way Obama was spying on Trump — through microwaves that turn into cameras
  21. Documents reveal that Michael Flynn received payments from Russian-based companies in addition to state media RT. One was part of a corruption scandal that got them banned from selling to the UN, and another (Kapersky) was trying to expand U.S. business.
  22. Flynn’s recent filling reveals that he had also worked for Turkish government agencies. Even though Trump’s transition team was told about Flynn’s foreign agent status, he was still allowed to attend security briefings.
  23. The DOJ announces indictments against two Russian spies in the FSB along with two hackers in the case of the 2104 breach of Yahoo’s networks (unrelated to the investigations around election interference).
  24. A Secret Service agent in New York leaves her laptop, containing highly sensitive information, in her car from which it is stolen. Said laptop contains floor plans for the Trump Tower and details on Clinton’s emails.
  25. The Russian bank that seemed to be communicating with a Trump server last year claims that it was hacked and is being set up.
  26. Comey meets with top senators to brief them on the ongoing Russia investigations. Whatever they talked about is classified; no one said much on the way out.
  27. And even after this meeting, Sean Spicer continues to stand by the wiretapping claims tweeted by Trump. Trump says he will provide evidence very soon. Senate Intelligence Committee leaders say they haven’t seen evidence of this, even after meeting with Comey on highly classified material around this.
  28. Trump and Spicer both accuse British agents of being involved with the [alleged] wiretapping. The GCHQ (British equivalent of the NSC) says that’s ridiculous. The White House later apologizes, but Spicer later denies there was any apology. It turns out Trump got this news from Fox and Friends, where the analyst they were speaking with got his news from Russian state media, RT.
  29. Representative Adam Schiff of the House Intelligence Committee said this of the Russia ties: “There is circumstantial evidence of collusion. There is direct evidence, I think, of deception and that’s where we begin the investigation.”
  30. Hearings on the latest travel ban start just before it’s set to go into effect, and a federal judge in Hawaii orders a stay. Simply removing the religious language didn’t convince the judge that it wasn’t based on religious discrimination. A Maryland judge also put a stay on the ban.
  31. After hearing this, Trump says it was a watered down version and he wants to go back to the original ban. Nonetheless, the Justice Department says it will defend the new travel ban. The case is slated to move on to the U.S. 4th Circuit Court of Appeals.
  32. Immigration agents in California have been hanging around courthouses to arrest undocumented immigrants. California’s chief justice asks the administration to put a stop to it.
  33. The Los Angeles County Sheriff, among other law agencies, have come out against the state-wide sanctuary bill.
  34. A former police chief of Greenville, NC, Hassan Aden, says he was detained at a CPB detention center for an hour and a half.
  35. Several bands slated to perform at SxSW have been denied entry to the US, though some could be because of incomplete paperwork.
  36. The DOJ temporarily transfers judges to detention centers near the Mexico border to help with the backlog of cases — currently there are over half a million cases waiting.
  37. Trump asks for $4.1 billion for the border wall, but estimates are as much as 6 times that.
  38. A poll of opinions on immigration shows the following: 60% of us are for a path to citizenship for undocumented immigrants. 26% say shoring up the border should be a priority. 13% say deportation should be the highest priority. 58% think if someone has been here a long time and not committed serious crimes, they shouldn’t be deported. 90% favor allowing people who’ve been here a long time, know English, and are will to pay back taxes to stay and apply for citizenship.
  39. A waiter in Orange County, CA, is fired after he asks a table of 4 women to show ID to prove that they are residents.
  40. Breitbart has lost at least 1,200 advertisers since the election due to alleged hate speech. While this is cutting into their profitability, they are mostly funded by donors on the right (largely Robert Mercer).
  41. The New York AG accuses Rex Tillerson of using an email under a pseudonym to talk about climate change and other sensitive issues while at Exxon, using the name Wayne Tracker. These emails were not turned over as part of a court order in a New York law suit.
  42. Trump directs the EPA to stop the fuel economy standards put in place by Obama and to review fuel emission standards. Waivers still allow states to set their own fuel emissions standards.
  43. Mick Mulvaney says, “As to climate change, I think the president was fairly straightforward: We’re not spending money on that anymore.”
  44. Seventeen House Republicans submit a resolution acknowledging the human impact on climate change and resolving to work on efforts to mitigate that impact.
  45. Scott Pruitt’s EPA is being staffed by former aides to Senator James Inhoffe, who’s been one of the loudest climate change skeptics in Congress.
  46. After Pruitt’s comments last week that CO2 doesn’t cause climate change, scientists write a letter to correct him.
  47. Since we’re talking about climate, in his testimony during his hearings earlier this year, Secretary of Defense Mattis said climate change is a global threat to our security, writing that “Climate change is impacting stability in areas of the world where our troops are operating today.”
  48. More than a dozen countries meet in Chile to discuss and bargain over trade deals now that the U.S. has withdrawn from the TPP. China, which was not originally in the TPP, has entered the fray with a new Pacific Rim plan. These deals could mean tougher competition for American exports.
  49. In an indicator that the economy continues to do well, the Fed raised the interest rate .25% on the premise that the current job growth is unsustainable and that faster growth would lead to inflation and then recession. Trump, on the other hand, describes the economy bleakly and has pushed for a dramatic increase in growth.
  50. For a different view of the economy, a Business Roundtable survey says that CEOs of major companies approve of what they’re seeing so far and they think Trump’s policies will allow them to expand business more quickly and increase profits.
  51. Mulvaney accuses the Obama administration of manipulating jobs data. There is no evidence of this — the BLS has used the same methods for over 75 years.
  52. Trump introduces his budget proposal, which cuts domestic programs drastically while increasing military spending by 10%. I’ll try to do another write-up on it later this week, but below are a few tidbits.
  53. The budget includes billions in cuts to the UN, including for humanitarian issues. This would cause a “breakdown of the international humanitarian system as we know it,” according to Richard Gowan an expert on the European Council on Foreign Relations.
  54. While Trump is asking for billions to complete his wall, Congress has some different ideas on immigration, including more drones and more border patrol agents.
  55. Canadians worry about the effects of Trump’s budget and EPA guidance on the Great Lakes, which, of course, we share with them.
  56. Even Newt Gingrich comes out against parts of the budget proposal, specifically the drastic cuts to the NIH, calling the cuts to research irresponsible and shortsighted.
  57. Scientists worry that Trump’s drastic cuts to research will lead to a “lost generation” in American research. Maybe other countries will take the lead.
  58. The budget would axe the national endowments for the arts and the humanities, both of which several Republican legislators support funding.
  59. A big kerfuffle erupts on social media about how the budget cuts will affect Meals on Wheels – specifically the cuts to HUD and state block grants. Mulvaney says it will not be cut.
  60. Trump gives power back to the CIA to order drone strikes, something they couldn’t do under Obama because this power was limited to the Pentagon.
  61. The U.S. military denies accusations that they bombed a mosque in Syria, saying they targeted Al Qaeda militants.
  62. Reports surface that the U.S. military drafted plans to deploy up to 1,000 troops to Syria to support the retaking of Raqqa, the so-called headquarters of ISIS.
  63. Tillerson takes one journalist (from the Independent Journal Review) on his flight to Asia. He calls for a new approach to North Korea, calling the policies of the last 20 years “failed.” He refuses to negotiate on freezing their nuclear weapon programs and leaves military options open (while China urges us to remain “coolheaded”).
  64. In a closely watched election, Geert Wilders’ extreme far-right Party for Freedom came in a distant second to the center-right VVD party. Wilders campaigned against the EU, against Muslims, and for white nationalism. This was seen as a test for the extreme right.
  65. Trump has a strange meeting with Angela Merkel during which he accuses a German reporter of reading fake news, suggests that he and Merkel have something in common around wiretapping, and seems to refuse to shake her hand. Trump did assure her that he strongly supports NATO.
  66. During a joint press conference, a German reporter asked what so many of us want to know the answer to: “Why are you so scared of diversity in the news, and in the media, that you speak so often of fake news? And that things after all, in the end, cannot be proven, for example, the fact that you have been wiretapped by (Barack) Obama?” She asked the question in German so Trump would have to wait for the translation and therefore not be able to interrupt before she was finished.
  67. After meeting with Merkel, Trump tweets that Germany owes the U.S. and NATO “vast sums of money”, indicating he doesn’t understand how NATO works.
  68. Other countries offer to help out in countries where Trump’s Mexico Rule prohibits aid from going to agencies that mention abortion.
  69. At the G-20 meeting, U.S. delegates reject wording in a free-trade statement that warned against protectionism and that stressed rules-based free trade following “existing standards and agreements.” This signals that we won’t accept trade norms and we’ll pursue more a more antagonistic approach.
  70. Major agencies, including the State Department, the Pentagon, and the Treasury, are operating without key officials due to the slow progression of the transition.
  71. Miami prosecutors have an ongoing investigation into Steve Bannon for potential voter fraud. Bannon calls his ex-wife’s FL address his primary residence, though it appears he was actually a CA resident.
  72. Trump takes his paychecks instead of donating them, and says he’ll let the media decide where he should donate his salary at the end of the year.
  73. The Palm Beach sheriff’s department says it costs about $60,000 in overtime every day Trump spends in Florida
  74. Rachel Maddow majorly over-hypes a leak of Trump’s 2005 taxes (which Trump calls fake news). It showed net income of $153 million, a $105 million business loss write-down, and taxes of $38 million. Much of what he paid was from the alternative minimum tax, which he wants to get rid of.
  75. The Justice Department goes to court to fight two conservative legal groups suing for more of Clinton’s emails to be released. This supports Trump assertion that he doesn’t want to pursue this.
  76. Kellyanne Conway’s husband is the likely choice to run the civil division of the Department of Justice.
  77. Polls start to show we are losing our global appeal:
    • 40% of colleges report declines in applications from international students
    • In November, 59% of Germans believed us to be a trustworthy ally. By February, that number had dropped to 22%.
  78. In a poll of millennials, 57% of Americans age 18-34 see Trump as an illegitimate president (though they don’t say why or what they mean by that). Also, Trump’s approval rating falls to 37%.
  79. Trump has appointed senior White House advisers in every Cabinet agency to monitor the various secretaries and to ensure their loyalty to Trump (verified by records first obtained by ProPublica through a Freedom of Information Act request).