Month: December 2017

Week 47 in Trump

Posted on December 18, 2017 in Politics, Trump

It’s looking more and more likely that we’ll have tax reform by the end of the year. It doesn’t look like it will actually simplify the tax code at all, and it might add a few layers of complexity on top of our 75,000 pages of tax code. As usual, some will win and some will lose, but the ultra-wealthy and corporations won’t be on the losing side.

Here’s what happened this week…

Russia:

  1. Republicans make much ado about Peter Strzok, the FBI agent who was released from the Russia investigation last summer after texts were uncovered where he was critical of Trump and supportive of Clinton. However, Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein, in his testimony to Congress, says that all federal employees are entitled to their political views and that political leanings do not disqualify them from doing their jobs. It’s actually a violation of federal practices to take political leanings into account for any applicant.
  2. Russian hacker Konstantin Kozlovsky confesses in court to being hired by the FSB (Russian intelligence) to hack the DNC’s computer systems in 2016.
  3. Mueller’s team requests emails from all Cambridge Analytica employees who worked on the Trump campaign. Cambridge Analytica is the data, polling, and research firm that helped target Trump’s social media campaign.
  4. Putin considers Trump’s tweets to be official statements from the White House, and he gets reports of the tweets along with reports of other leaders’ official statements.
  5. Trump has never held a cabinet meeting about Russian meddling in the 2016 election, and it’s not talked about in the White House.
  6. Citizens United opened the door to all sorts of donor manipulation around our elections. Mueller is investigating Russian donors and donors with Russian ties in the 2016 elections. Here’s an in-depth piece on the people involved.

  7. Rumors abound on the left that Trump plans to fire Mueller on December 22. Trump denies this, saying that the investigation is almost wrapped up and that he’ll be cleared soon.
  8. Trump’s lawyers say Mueller obtained Trump’s transition team documents using inappropriate methods. But according to lawyers for the Government Services Administration (GSA), it went like this:
    • The GSA told Trump’s transition team during the transition that materials “would not be held back in any law enforcement” requests.
    • Mueller’s team requested the materials.
    • The GSA turned over the materials.
  1. Jared Kushner’s legal team is working on hiring a crisis PR agency.
  2. Internet traffic for four major corporations—Google, Facebook, Apple, and Microsoft—is briefly rerouted through a Russian ISP.
  3. Adam Schiff, the ranking member of the House Intelligence Committee, says, “The Russians offered help. The campaign accepted help. The Russians gave help. And the president made full use of that help.” He calls the evidence pretty damning, though he wouldn’t say whether it’s beyond a shadow of a doubt.

Courts/Justice:

  1. Two of Trump’s nominees for judge will not move forward for confirmation. Brett Talley is rated as unqualified by the ABA, and Jeff Mateer admits he discriminates against the LGBTQ community.
  2. However, Congress approves Leonard Steven Grasz, who couldn’t answer even the most basic of law questions during his confirmation hearing.
    UPDATE: My bad! I had Grasz (who was confirmed) confused with Matthew Peterson (who withdrew his nomination after his truly bad confirmation hearing).

Healthcare:

  1. A federal judge temporarily blocks Trump’s rule that let employers and universities opt out of providing healthcare coverage for contraception. Trump tried to rescind the ACA rule that mandated contraceptive coverage, but the Pennsylvania judge says that contradicts the text of the ACA.
  2. Legislators in Ohio pass a law criminalizing abortions that doctors think might be due to finding out the child will be born with Down Syndrome. North Dakota and Indiana have similar laws.
  3. The Trump administration issues a list of terms the CDC cannot use in budget documents. They include: vulnerable, entitlement, diversity, transgender, fetus, evidence-based, and science-based.
  4. Instead of the last two, the recommended wording is “CDC bases its recommendations on science in consideration with community standards and wishes.” Wishes, huh? Well then I wish there was a cure for every single disease and bigotry so we wouldn’t have to censor like this.
  5. Several documents have been sent back to the CDC for correction of the above terms.
  6. The Mine Safety and Health Administration asks for public comments on regulations around coal and rock dust (responsible for black lung in miners) and around diesel (known to cause cancer). This indicates that the administration is looking at loosening these protections, too.
  7. The Trump administration sends some emergency funding to keep the Children’s Health Insurance Program (CHIP) running.

International:

  1. The deadline for Congress to re-implement sanctions against Iran after Trump decertified the Iran nuclear deal passes with no action from Congress. This despite Republicans calling the deal the worst deal ever and pushing to overrule it. Perhaps that was all talk.
  2. A resigning State Department official says Trump and Tillerson put Americans at risk because they don’t understand the role of the State Department. Diplomats and officials across the globe are leaving the department, which helps shape foreign policy and gets Americans overseas out of harms way. It also develops strategic relationships around the globe so the U.S. can come in when needed to help solve problems. You can’t do that without established people on the ground.
  3. In response to Trump declaring that the U.S. will recognize Jerusalem as the capital of Israel, leaders of Muslim nations declare East Jerusalem the capital of Palestine.
  4. Republicans are pushing a bill through the House that would require the Treasury to report on assets held by Iranian leaders, whether or not they are subject to sanctions.
  5. Nikki Haley claims that there is undeniable evidence that Iran supplied weapons to insurgents in Yemen. The UN Secretary-General says the evidence does not support this claim. It sounds like another administration creating a reason to go to war with a Middle Eastern country.
  6. Trump changes the U.S. stance on Syria and says Assad should remain as president until the next elections.

Legislation/Congress:

  1. After Senator Kirstin Gillibrand calls for Trump to step down because of accusations of sexual misconduct, Trump tweets that there was a time Gillibrand would do anything for his donations back in the day. Anything.
  2. Rumors abound that Paul Ryan is considering retiring after this term.

Travel Ban/Immigration/Discrimination:

  1. Republican Representative Blake Farenthold says he won’t run again because of sexual harassment accusations. He should step down now, like Conyers, Trent, and Franken.
  2. Women sue a congressional ethics official for physical and verbal assault. Ironically, the official was investigating sexual harassment claims into Members of Congress.
  3. A Kentucky lawmaker apparently commits suicide over sexual misconduct claims.
  4. Three of Trump’s accusers call on Congress to investigate the accusations of sexual assault against him.
  5. 56 female Democrats in Congress request the House Oversight Committee investigate Trump for the accusations of sexual assault. 17 women have accused Trump, though he says the accusations are false and that he doesn’t even know these women or has never met them. Videos and pictures contradict those claims.
  6. Trump speaks to graduates at the FBI National Academy in Quantico and says that immigrants who come to the U.S. through visa lotteries are the worst of the worst. He apparently doesn’t understand how the system works, because foreign leaders can’t pick who wins the lottery nor how they’re vetted. And reading through a few stories, many are professionals, doctors, engineers, etc.

Climate/EPA:

  1. World leaders and investors meet in Paris to discuss climate change, and they announce over $1 billion in investments to help countries and industries transition from coal and oil. Trump isn’t invited, but current and former U.S. officials represent, including Arnold Schwarzenegger, Michael Bloomberg, John Kerry, and Jerry Brown.
  2. During the meeting, state and local leaders from the U.S. affirmed their commitment to adhering to the Paris Agreement targets, with or without the federal government.
  3. French President Macron announces research grants to U.S. climate scientists who might be losing grants (not to mention the will to go on) under Trump. He’ll grant $70 million to 50 climate research projects to help “Make America Great Again!”
  4. Michael Dourson, Trump’s nominee to head the chemical safety division of the EPA, withdraws from consideration. His support in Congress was weak due to a career spent pushing for fewer safety measures around hazardous chemicals.
  5. Because he can’t leave an Obama rule untouched, Trump plans to rescind regulations requiring organic egg farmers to make sure their hens can graze outdoors.
  6. Federal records show that Scott Pruitt hired a contractor at the EPA to for the purpose of finding employees who are critical of the Trump administration.
  7. Barrows, Alaska is warming up so fast that the computer algorithm used by NOAA to compile global temperature changes flagged the measurement there as not being real. The algorithm removes outliers in temperatures to make sure no fake data gets into their research.
  8. Oklahomans are fighting for the findings of an audit of the Tar Creek Superfund site to be released. When he was Oklahoma’s Secretary of State, Scott Pruitt used his power to keep the audit from the public. After the EPA worked to clean up the site, Senator Jim Inhofe, along with Pruitt, endorsed a plan to use federal funds along with local citizens to clean up the site, which is now deserted and still polluted. Tar Creek holds a reservoir of lead-zinc ore, the mining of which resulted in levels of lead far above the acceptable limits, causing things like learning disabilities and memory loss.
  9. We learn that Ryan Zinke flew a national park leader to Washington D.C. to reprimand him for tweeting about climate change. Regardless of whether or not you think climate change is manmade, its effects on our national parks are visible and important.
  10. Scott Pruitt hires an opposition research team to help shape press coverage of the EPA.

Budget/Economy:

Lemme just say that tax reform has been an interesting process to me because it’s the first time I can recall really seeing how the sausage is made in Washington, and it’s not pretty. Politicians have been pretty outspoken about the backroom deals and about the fear and threats of losing big donors.

  1. The tax bill gets reconciled between the House and Senate. I could sum it up here, but the New York Times does a great job of it here.
  2. Here’s a good chart to see how the bill affects your income bracket. It looks like some will go up and some will go down.
  3. A few things the final bill does:
    • Removes the wording that would’ve rescinded the Johnson Act (so non-profits and religious organizations still can’t tell you how to vote)
    • Keeps and expands education deductions that the House wanted to get rid of
    • Limits mortgage interest, state and local tax, and property tax deductions, but at a higher level than the original House bill
    • Adds more deductions for pass-through entities than either original bill
    • Removes the wording giving personhood status to fetuses
    • Keeps the estate tax, but doubles the unified tax credit (the amount above which estates are taxed)
    • Eliminates the deduction of losses due to earthquakes and wildfires, but not for floods and hurricanes (obviously targeting a specific state where I live)
    • Keeps deductions for high medical costs, and actually lets you deduct more
    • Removes the ACA mandate, which could finally give the Republicans the victory they want by bringing the ACA to its knees
    • Opens up ANWR for drilling
  1. Even the Treasury Department says the tax plan won’t increase economic growth enough to pay for itself, saying we’ll also need regulatory reform, infrastructure development, and welfare reform.
  2. Mike Pence delays his trip to Israel in the likely case his vote is needed to break a tie on this pretty unpopular tax bill.
  3. John McCain is in the hospital and might not be available for the tax plan vote.
  4. Senator Bob Corker (R-Tenn.), who last week said he was a yes on the tax bill, sends a letter to Orrin Hatch to find out how an additional 20% deduction for pass-through companies that own income-producing real estate got into the tax bill. Apparently, they still all don’t know what’s in this bill.
  5. Paul Ryan says Americans need to have more babies to save the economy. Economists say we need to allow in more immigrants to save the economy.
  6. The Fed raises the interest rate again (likely to guard against inflation).
  7. In a lawsuit, a group of small farmers charge the administration with “arbitrary and capricious” behavior over rolling back two protections for small farms. One of the rules made it easier for small farmers to sue for anti-competitive behavior (mostly by meat-packers). Obama’s administration negotiated for almost 8 years to create protections for small farmers and ranchers, but the Trump administration never implemented any of them.
  8. As a result of a study by Michigan State University scholars, the Defense Departments starts its first agency-wide financial audit ever. First EVER. The study found $21 trillion in unauthorized spending between 1998 and 2015.
  9. Canada cancels plans to buy fighter jets from Boeing due to a trade dispute between Boeing and Canada’s Bombadier. Canada will get their planes from Australia instead, costing Boeing $5.23 billion.
  10. A U.N. Special Rapporteur on extreme poverty and human rights is touring the U.S. to examine our own areas of extreme poverty. You can read the full report here – a long but fascinating read.
  11. Trump calls Rupert Murdoch to congratulate him on his $52.4 billion deal with Disney and to make sure he didn’t sell Fox News as part of the deal.

Elections:

  1. An RNC member from Nebraska resigns over the party’s support for Roy Moore after he was accused of pursuing teenage girls and molesting one.
  2. Doug Jones wins the Senate seat in Alabama. Roy Moore refuses to concede because, as explained by one Alabamian, he can’t believe God would will a Democrat to win.
  3. The African American vote goes to Doug Jones 96% to 4%.
  4. Trump somehow claims victory in Moore’s loss, saying he knew he couldn’t win. After endorsing him for the past several weeks.
  5. Trump plans to travel extensively campaigning and holding rallies for down-ticket Republicans for much of 2018. Who will be presidenting during that time, I wonder?
  6. In polling neither Democrat nor Republican voters see Trump as the leader of the GOP, though there are districts where Trump could be helpful.

Miscellaneous:

  1. The FCC votes to rescind net neutrality rules, despite public protest and majority support in favor of the rules (83% of Americans favor net neutrality). Also despite many irregularities in the public comment process, which appears to have been dominated by bots.
  2. The FCC’s new plan would require ISPs to disclose whether they might violate the rules that were just rescinded, which shifts enforcement from the FCC to the FTC. So for example, your cable company will have to tell you that they might throttle Netflix or charge more for Hulu. Be sure to read the fine print!
  3. In response, several state leaders announce plans to protect net neutrality in their own states, and 17 states sue the FCC over the changes.
  4. Senator Schumer says Senate Democrats will force a vote on a bill to repeal the FCC’s repeal of net neutrality rules. He’ll use the Congressional Review Act, which Republicans have used nearly 20 times this year to rescind regulatory agency decisions.
  5. The Wall Street Journal publishes an op-ed intended to calm people down about net neutrality, but it turns out to be authored by a former Comcast lawyer.
  6. Just a little reminder of what Ajit Pai has done this year as head of the FCC:
    • Loosened limits on media ownership that were in place to prevent information monopolies
    • Increased the amount broadband providers can charge businesses
    • Scaled back a program to provide internet to low-income areas (a program that was supposed to be expanded)
    • Reversed net neutrality
  1. Someone sends reporters a forged document they say is a court filing charging Chuck Schumer with sexual harassment. Both Schumer and the alleged accuser report the document as a forgery to the police. Just before the news broke, two conservative provocateurs bragged about documents that would bring down a U.S. Senator. Leaving us all with the implication that they were the ones behind it?
  2. Omarosa is out. And it sounds weird.
  3. Trump directs NASA to make another moon landing.
  4. Trump solicits advice from Janine Pirro. Not just this week, but all the time.
  5. NRA president Wayne LaPierre attends a White House party on the fifth anniversary of the Sand Hook shooting. Really bad optics.
  6. Just before going in and telling FBI graduates at Quantico that he has their back 100%, Trump calls the FBI a “shame.”
  7. Sean Spicer is writing a book about the 2016 elections.
  8. There was a botched terrorist attack in a New York subway where the only one seriously hurt was the bomber himself.
  9. Trump takes credit for getting rid of 469 regulations, 42% of which were either never implemented or already shelved.

Week 46 in Trump

Posted on December 14, 2017 in Politics, Trump

After over half the Democrats in the Senate push for his resignation over accusations of sexual misconduct, Al Franken resigns from the Senate, saying:

“I of all people am aware that there is some irony in the fact that I am leaving while a man who has bragged on tape about his history of sexual assault sits in the Oval Office and a man who has repeatedly preyed on young girls campaigns for the Senate with the full support of his party.”

Come on Republicans. The moral high ground has a very slippery slope, and you might be at a point where you can never make it back to the top. You need to oust your own members who are accused of misconduct, whether or not they cop to it. If you don’t like the RNC supporting an alleged child molester, you need to stand up and tell them so.

Russia:

  1. The chief lawyer at the White House told Trump in January that Michael Flynn had likely lied to the FBI and Mike Pence. This was before Trump asked Comey to “see his way to letting it go.”
  2. In his December meeting with Russian officials, Mike Flynn told them the sanctions Obama was imposing at the time would be ripped up.
  3. Mueller asks a judge to deny Manafort’s request to be released from house arrest after learning the Manafort wrote an op-ed with a Russian operative in order to sway public opinion about his dealings with the Ukraine. Some people never learn.
  4. Mueller subpoenas Deutsche Bank for information about Trump’s accounts. Deutsche Bank has loaned millions to the Trump Organization. The White House denies that there are any subpoenas.
  5. Donald Trump Jr. spends eight hours in front of the House Intelligence Committee. He says he talked to Hope Hicks, and not his father, about how to respond to revelations of his meeting with a Russian lawyer.
  6. He also claims attorney-client privilege as a reason to not talk about the phone call with Trump Sr. where they discussed how they should handle the issue of Trump Jr.’s meeting with a Russian lawyer (because a lawyer was in the room when he called).
  7. Newly uncovered emails show there was follow-up within the Trump campaign to Trump Jr.’s meeting with the Russian lawyer.
  8. In his meeting with the Russian lawyer, Trump Jr. asked for information proving illegal donations to the Clinton campaign.
  9. Erik Prince testifies before the House Intelligence Committee, and says he met with Devin Nunes earlier this year to discuss the unmasking of names of Americans being investigated (after Nunes recused himself). He also discusses meetings with Emirati officials and a Russian banker in the Seychelles.
  10. The judge in the Flynn case recuses himself.
  11. Senate Democrats on the Foreign Relations Committee hold up K.T. McFarland’s nomination based on questions around what she knew about contact between Michael Flynn and Russian ambassador Kislyak.
  12. Hope Hicks meets with Mueller’s team, and we learn that the FBI warned her that Russian operatives had tried to contact her at least twice this year.

Healthcare:

  1. The DOJ picks up the investigations into abortion providers about the transfer of fetal tissue, taking over from the congressional inquiries held last year.
  2. The USDA rolls back Michelle Obama’s school lunch program. Because why should kids have to eat healthy food?

International:

  1. Apparently urged by Jared Kushner, Trump announces that he recognizes Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, and that he plans to move the U.S. embassy to Jerusalem. This is a new tactic for Middle East peace, and protests erupt abroad.
  2. Palestinian leader Abbas says maybe a one-state solution is the way to go because it would force Israel to choose whether they’ll be a true democracy, in which case Palestinians could have the majority voice.
  3. Hamas leaders push for a new uprising against Israel because of the announcement.
  4. Several advisers say Trump didn’t fully understand the ramifications of the Jerusalem move and that his focus is “seeming pro-Israel” and “making a deal.”
  5. The International Olympic Committee (IOC) bans Russia from the 2018 Olympics as punishment for their “systemic manipulation of the anti-doping system”. The IOC also creates a way for drug-free Russian athletes to compete under the Olympic flag.
  6. The Senate confirms Kirstjen Nielsen as Secretary of the Department of Homeland Security. She was previously Kelly’s chief of staff there.
  7. Germany’s acting foreign minister says that relations between Germany and the U.S. will never be the same, complaining that Trump looks at Europe as a rival instead of an ally.
  8. Tillerson gets a chilly reception from European leaders, who cite Trump’s nationalistic rhetoric, his tweets, and his announcement that the U.S. will recognize Jerusalem as the capital of Israel as reasons for the tension.
  9. The State Department issues a worldwide caution for U.S. travelers abroad. The last time this happened was at the start of the Iraq war.
  10. North Korea says war is inevitable.
  11. Remember when we brought back our diplomats from Cuba because they were experiencing mysterious symptoms? Well doctors find brain damage in the victims, which makes the sonic weapon explanation a little less believable.
  12. Iraq says that ISIS no longer controls any land in the country and declares an end to their war on ISIS.

Legislation/Congress:

  1. The House passes the concealed carry reciprocity bill, which would let people who live in concealed carry states carry weapons in states that don’t have concealed carry. I guess states right are only right when you agree with them.
  2. So far, 44 U.S. Representatives and 2 Senators have announced they’ll retire, resign, or run for a different office. 30 of the 44 are Republicans and both Senators are. Some feel they can’t get anything done anymore, and some point to Trump.
  3. Senator Al Franken announces he’ll step down over sexual misconduct allegations. Representative Trent Frank (R-AZ) also steps down from complaints that he suggested members of his staff should be surrogate mothers for him and his wife.
  4. Democratic Representative John Conyers resigns after more accusations of sexual harassment. Still waiting for Trump to come clean here.
  5. A House vote to impeach Trump fails bigly.

Travel Ban/Immigration/Discrimination:

  1. The Supreme Court allows Trump’s third iteration of the travel ban to take effect while arguments are heard in the court challenge.
  2. Despite Trump’s push to bolster staff at Customs and Border Patrol, the CPB hasn’t been able to hire enough people to make up for attrition.
  3. In a rally in Florida… Wait, really? Why is he still holding rallies? Anyway, at a rally In Florida, Trump stumps for Roy Moore and goes after one of Moore’s accusers (she had added notes to the one Moore wrote in her yearbook oh my). Trump has attacked his own accusers and Moore’s, but somehow all the other women coming forward are legit. WTF?
  4. 92 Somalis are taken back to Somalia on a deportation plane, but they have to land in Senegal, and end up returning to the U.S. because of logistical issues.
  5. Trump was originally scheduled to speak at the opening of the Civil Rights Museum in Mississippi, but due to threatened boycotts by civil rights leaders, Trump speaks at a private event and not the opening.
    UPDATE: I recant that. Despite protests, Trump spoke at the opening anyway.
  6. Trump holds the traditional Hanukkah party but doesn’t invite Democrats or Reformist Jews.

Climate/EPA:

  1. Trump shrinks Bears Ears and Grand Staircase-Escalante, as promised. The first of many lawsuits is filed on the same day.
  2. The EPA inspector general announces an investigation into Scott Pruitt’s meeting with the National Mining Association earlier this year where Pruitt apparently asked industry members to urge Trump to exit the Paris agreement.
  3. The Trump administration auctions off drilling rights for 900 tracts in Alaska’s National Petroleum Reserve, totaling 10.3 million acres. Only two companies bid and only on seven tracts, totaling only about $1.16 million. This was supposed to be the biggest lease sale ever.
  4. Trump approves a state of emergency for Southern California due to the rampant wildfires.

Budget/Economy:

  1. Congress pushes back a potential government shutdown by extending spending for two weeks. So now they have to sign a funding bill by the end of next week.
  2. Trump says a government shutdown could still happen, and it would benefit him because he’ll blame Democrats for obstructing. Democrats are withholding support for a spending bill because they want a clean DACA bill. They also want comparable increases for non-defense spending as for defense spending. The Freedom Caucus says they won’t support a bill that includes either of those things.
  3. The tax bills being reconciled include a boon to private schools by allowing tax-free 529 accounts to be used for private K-12 schools. Currently they are only allowed for college savings.
  4. The Senate forgot to reduce the ATM, one of many oversights in their tax plan. Experts find many loopholes and potential problems.
  5. The Senate removes the anti-abortion text that was inserted into the tax bill (personhood for fetuses). The parliamentarian says it violates the Byrd rule, which governs what can be included in finance bills.
  6. 13 GOP governors refuse to sign a letter of support for the proposed tax plans.
  7. Susan Collins’ vote on the bill is back in question as the planned fix won’t work for the problems that would be caused by getting rid of the ACA’s individual mandate.
  8. Economists wonder if this is the wrong time for a tax cut, usually a tool to stimulate the economy which is currently on an 86-month winning streak. It could backfire and push us into inflation.
  9. Hiring is still strong 8 years into the recovery. 228,000 jobs were added in November.
  10. But GE announces they’ll layoff 12,000 employees (globally, though they didn’t say how many in what countries).
  11. The repeal of the Johnson amendment in the tax bill could open the door to allowing large donations to 501(c)(3) charities, meaning you can donate as much as you want to political candidates and write it off as a tax deduction.
  12. Attorneys general from 17 states and D.C. file a brief challenging Trump’s right to appoint Mick Mulvaney to head the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB).
  13. Hours after Mulvaney becomes acting director of the CFPB, the bureau reverses its position on a case that was nearly over, so bureau will no longer take a position on whether Nationwide will pay $8 million for misleading over 100,000 customers on their mortgages. They also stopped payments to some victims of financial crimes. This after Mulvaney says he won’t blow up the bureau.
  14. Trump rescinds another Obama-era proposal that makes airlines disclose baggage fees up front. Because why should we get to know exactly how much we have to pay?
  15. The Department of Labor delays implementation of the fiduciary rule, which would protect consumers from financial advisors lining their own pockets instead of looking out for consumers’ best interests.

Elections:

  1. Trump calls Roy Moore to offer his endorsement, and stumps for Moore at Trump’s rally in Florida.
  2. And then the Republican National Committee (RNC) throws its support behind Moore once again, after distancing themselves just a few weeks ago. But no one in the RNC defends the move publicly. This is no longer the party of the moral majority.
  3. Republican Representative Ben Sasse criticizes the RNC for funding Roy Moore once more, and says he’ll pull out of the fundraising arm of the committee if they keep it up.
  4. Paul Ryan says Roy Moore should drop out of the race, while Sarah Huckabee Sanders says Trump has the highest level respect for women (after Trump voiced support for Moore).
  5. Coordination between the RNC and the president is at a low, with Trump not realizing he is the leader of the party.
  6. Trump’s voter fraud commission, headed by Kris Kobach, wants to create a centralized database that pulls together names, addresses, party affiliations, and partial security numbers for all voters in all states. Security and access to the database hasn’t been defined yet. This is similar to Kobach’s Crosscheck database, which has caused millions of voters to be accidentally dropped from the roles. States have tried to drop out but are finding it impossible.

Miscellaneous:

  1. Erik Prince and Oliver North (!) are trying to sell the administration on the idea of creating a secret spy network to protect us against our own government intelligence agencies.
  2. After the Access Hollywood tape was released, GOP donors reportedly asked the RNC how much they would have to pay Trump for him to drop out of the election. Mike Pence and Reince Priebus also reportedly made a plan for succession, with Pence running for president and Condoleeza Rice being his running mate.
  3. Trump’s lawyers argue that the defamation suit brought against him by one of his sexual harassment accusers should be thrown out because Trump’s attacks against his accusers falls under protected speech.
  4. The Veterans Affairs Secretary, David Shulkin, holds a DC event touting Trump’s promise to house homeless vets. Then four days later, the Veterans Affairs agency cut resources from a program that dramatically reduced homelessness for sick and vulnerable vets. After some blowback, Trump reverses this decision.
  5. There are protests across the country in support of net neutrality and against FCC chair Ajit Pai’s attempt to get rid of it.
  6. Trump rolls back another Obama administration safety rule, this one requiring that trains shipping highly explosive liquids be equipped with electronically controlled pneumatic brakes by 2021. This rule was put in place to prevent the explosive train wrecks we’ve seen in recent years.
  7. Christopher Wray, director of the FBI, defends the FBIs integrity to the House Judiciary Committee after Trump tweeted that the agency is in tatters.

Polls:

  1. Trump hits a new all-time low in the Pew Research poll, with an approval rating of 32%.
  2. 70% of Americans think Congress should investigate Trump for sexual harassment accusations.
  3. 59% of Americans think Trump’s team had improper contacts with Russia during the campaign.
  4. 57% think Mueller is fair in his handling of the investigation.

Week 45 in Trump

Posted on December 4, 2017 in Politics, Trump

Trump says Merry Christmas and then claims that the war on Christmas is over. Finally… I thought that war would never end. Or was it ever a war in the first place?

Russia:

  1. We find out that Mueller has interviewed Jared Kushner about meetings with Michael Flynn in December.
  2. Legislators and their aides say that over the summer, Trump pressured committee members to wrap up their investigations into Russian interference in our elections. The people he pressured include Richard Burr, Mitch McConnell, and Roy Blunt, among others.
  3. Mueller brings the fourth indictment in the Russia probe, this time against former national security advisor Michael Flynn. Flynn pleads guilty to lying to the FBI about discussing sanctions with Russian officials last December.
  4. Flynn is the second person to enter a guilty plea in the investigation, causing speculation that he is cooperating with Mueller.
  5. Lying might seem like a small crime but he lied about negotiating with the Russians against U.S. policy and U.S. interests before Trump took office and after we knew that Russia interfered in our election.
  6. Flynn’s admission brings other campaign officials into question. After he spoke with the Russian ambassador about sanctions, Flynn called one or more senior members of the transition team while they were at Mar-a-Lago with Trump. They discussed his meeting with Ambassador Kislyak and sanctions Obama imposed on Russia.
  7. While she was on Trump’s transition team, K.T. McFarland emailed a friend saying that Russia threw the election to Trump. McFarland went on to become deputy national security advisor for a bit.
  8. Trump responds to Flynn’s guilty plea in a number of ways… in tweets, of course. He attacks the FBI, saying they’re in tatters. He attacks the FBI and DOJ for not investigating Clinton thoroughly enough. He also says he fired Flynn because Flynn lied to the vice-president, which implies that Trump knew about Flynn’s interactions with Russians, knew that he lied to Pence, and then he asked James Comey to let the Flynn thing go AFTER he knew about the lies.
  9. Trump’s lawyer says he composed that tweet, and then goes on to say that a president cannot be guilty of obstruction because he’s the chief law enforcement officer. Apparently forgetting that both Nixon and Clinton had articles of impeachment against them for exactly that.
  10. Among the documents turned over to investigators is an email from an operative with ties to the NRA who said during the campaign that he could arrange a back-channel meeting with Trump and Putin. He said Russia was “quietly but actively seeking a dialogue with the U.S.” and wanted to make contact at the N.R.A.’s annual convention.
  11. Even though he “recused” himself from the Russia investigation, House Intelligence Committee Chair Devin Nunes is pulling together contempt charges against the FBI and DOJ for not cooperating with requests for information by congressional committees. Both the FBI and DOJ say they’re complying fully.
  12. Paul Manafort reaches an $11 billion bail agreement with Mueller, getting rid of his ankle bracelet and putting up several real estate properties as collateral.
  13. We learn that Mueller got rid of one of his investigators last summer over anti-Trump texts. The right uses the firing of Peter Strzok to “prove” that Mueller’s investigation is tainted. The left says it shows he’s keeping bias out of the picture.
  14. The Senate Judiciary Committee is building an obstruction of justice case against Trump.

Courts/Justice:

  1. Subpoenas go out to 23 Trump businesses over the emoluments clause.
  2. Jeff Sessions picks Kellyanne Conway to head up the White House response to the opioid crisis.

Healthcare:

  1. Six members of the Presidential Advisory Council on HIV/AIDS (PACHA) resign. They say they can’t effectively work under a president who just doesn’t care about addressing AIDS or HIV.

International:

  1. North Korea tests an ICBM that it says can reach the U.S. mainland.
  2. Ivanka takes a trip to India for the Global Entrepreneurship Summit. Tillerson declines to send a high-level State Department delegation along with her.
  3. Rumors abound that Trump plans to replace Tillerson with CIA director Mike Pompeo, and then to appoint Senator Tom Cotton to the position of CIA director. Trump denies all this.
  4. The board of the UK’s Social Mobility Commission resign, saying it’s impossible to work on issues around social mobility as long as the government is focused on Brexit. The board members accuse the government of abandoning the people who voted for Brexit and of not doing anything to change the conditions that led to the vote.
  5. The U.S. pulls out of the UN’s global compact on migration, saying it undermines our sovereignty, but the likely reason is that it was created under Obama. The compact helps refugees migrate in an orderly way instead of the haphazard way that occurred over the past several years.

Legislation/Congress:

  1. After Trump tweets that there will be no deal in their scheduled meeting, Democratic leaders Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer skip a meeting with Trump and Republican leaders about government funding. Pelosi and Schumer say they’ll work directly with Republican leaders Mitch McConnell and Paul Ryan instead.
  2. After they skip the meeting, Trump accuses them of pettiness, though one could easily say his tweet was pretty petty.

Travel Ban/Immigration/Discrimination:

  1. Trump shares inflammatory posts from a member of the far-right group Britain First (you might remember the group from the guy who killed an MP last year shouting “Britain First!”). The posts are anti-Muslim, anti-immigrant videos, one of which turns out to be ISIS propaganda and the other two of which didn’t reflect the message that went along with them.
  2. Britain First is labeled an extremist group that targets Muslims and mosques. IMO, our president shouldn’t be spreading dangerous, extremist propaganda. Our president should be better than that.
  3. His tweets draw a quick rebuke from British politicians, including Theresa May. Which starts a brief war of words between the two leaders. Trump responds by implying May isn’t taking care of “Radical Islamic Terrorism.”
  4. Of note, the woman who originally posted these videos is on trial for hate crimes.
  5. In response to criticism of the videos, Sarah Huckabee Sanders says it doesn’t matter if the videos are real because the threat is real and we need to strengthen our borders. Soooo we should be making policy based on ISIS propaganda and falsified events. Great.
  6. And props to Trump. Britain First gets an increase in supporters. Good job.
  7. The British parliament holds an animated discussion about whether Trump should be allowed to visit and about his fitness. One member suggests that Trump should delete his Twitter account.
  8. In his World AIDS day statement, Trump fails to mention the LGBTQ community, even though they are disproportionately affected.

Climate/EPA:

  1. Barry Meyers, Trump’s pick to head the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), breaks from the administration’s party line and says that he agrees climate change is caused primarily by humans.
  2. Trump announces plans to reduce the size of the Bears Ears National Monument by 85% and the Grand Staircase-Escalante by more than previously announced. These were designated by Obama and Bill Clinton, respectively. He plans to:
    • Split the Grand Staircase-Escalante into three different areas – Grand Staircase National Monument, Kaiparowits National Monument, and Escalante Canyons National Monument.
    • Split Bears Ears into two areas – Indian Creek National Monument and the Shash Jaa National Monument.
  3. The EPA holds its only listening session about repealing the Clean Power Plan in Charleston, West Virginia. Coal Country. Around 230 people attend and only about 30 of them support the repeal. The Clean Power Plan regulates coal plan emissions.
  4. Moody’s is about to make climate change very relevant to coastal and low elevation cities, including in some red states (specifically George, Florida, Mississippi, and Texas). Moody’s says they’ll rate municipal bonds in at-risk areas based on how prepared they are to mitigate the effects of climate change. This could hurt those areas economically unless they comply.

Budget/Economy:

  1. Two people show up on Monday to run the Consumer Finance Protection Bureau (CFBB). One is Trump’s pick to head the agency, OMB director Mick Mulvaney, and the other is Leandra English, who is next in succession according to the CPFB bylaws. A Trump-appointed federal judge rules in favor of the presidential power to fill vacancies and Mulvaney becomes the acting director in the end.
  2. Of note, Mulvaney has sharply criticized this bureau and thinks it stifles financial institutions. Because how can banks make money if they can’t fuck over the populace, amiright?
  3. On top of the cost of recovering from hurricane Maria, Puerto Rican manufacturers could be hit with another economic problem The House tax bill includes a 20% tax on Puerto Rican goods shipped to the mainland. This could decimate their manufacturing sector.
  4. Trump gives a pro-tax reform speech in Missouri. Here are some Tax Policy Center findings disputing some of the points he made:
    • Only 20% of the tax savings would go to the 60% of people making $87,000 or less.
    • 63% of the savings would go to the 20% of people making 150,000 or more.
    • 25% of the savings would go to the 5% of people making $303,000 or more.
    • Despite the good job reports, job growth this year has been slightly less than last year.
    • Trump is right that economic growth has been strong over the last two quarters.
  1. The Senate Budget Committee votes to advance the Senate tax plan to the floor on a party-line vote. In a no-debate, no-hearing process. While looking protesters with disabilities in the eye.
  2. Several Republican Senators express concerns about the Senate bill for varying reasons. Bob Corker thinks it adds too much to the deficit, Ron Johnson worries it doesn’t do enough for small businesses, others worry that their constituents will lose their healthcare coverage, and yet others worry that it will raise taxes on the middle class.
  3. The first vote, on Thursday, is halted when the Senate parliamentarian finds it doesn’t pass requirements. The bill had a clause that said if the tax cuts caused the deficit to increase too much, it would trigger an increase in individual taxes. Not good enough to get past the $1 trillion it was predicted to add to the deficit.
  4. On Friday, Senate Republicans scramble to make deals and get in last-minute changes, and ultimately deliver nearly 500 pages, giving Senators a few hours to read it before the vote. Some of the pages are so fresh, the changes are written in cursive in the margins and some of the words get cut off by the copy machine.
  5. Lobbyists get copies of the marked up bill before the Senators who have to vote on it.
  6. After much deal-making, the bill passes the full Senate in the wee hours Saturday morning. Here’s how they brought in some hold-outs:
    • Susan Collins gets promises of future bills to make sure people don’t lose healthcare and to reduce premiums.
    • Jeff Flake gets a promise that the situation of the Dreamers will be taken care of with a clean bill.
    • Steve Daines and Ron Johnson got a deeper tax break for pass-through corporations.
    • Lisa Murkowski gets to exploit the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR) by opening it up to drilling and mining.
  1. THE AARP releases a report showing that millions of seniors’ taxes will go up under the Senate tax plan.
  2. Despite Steve Mnuchin’s repeated assurances that he had a hundred analysts working on the tax bill ramifications, there is no report from the Treasury Department. Normally, the administration would release a report supporting their economic assertions, especially given that most independent analysts have refuted the claims made by the GOP.
  3. The Treasury Department’s inspector general launches an inquiry into what happened at Treasury. Did they create a report and hide it? Did they even create a report? Did they do any analytics?
  4. Here’s a couple random things the bill includes:
    • A repeal of the Johnson amendment, so your priest can tell you who to vote for.
    • Wording that gives personhood to fetuses.
    • Opening ANWR to drilling and mining.
    • A tax on private university endowments except for Hillsdale College, which is funded by the DeVos family.
  1. Marco Rubio says we’ll make up the deficit by cutting Medicare and Social Security down the road.
  2. Republicans have been very candid about the fact that their largest donors have threatened to stop funding the party if they don’t get tax reform through. Some continue to say this is for the people, but big donors get the biggest tax breaks. See the quotes at the end of this recap.
  3. The Congressional Joint Committee on Taxation releases their report on the cost of the tax bill an hour after the vote, which means they passed the bill without knowing the economic ramifications.
  4. The Center on Budget and Policy Priorities publishes a new report finding that 27% of the Bush tax cuts benefited the wealthiest 1%.
  5. Trump thinks a government shutdown would benefit him politically, saying he’ll just blame it on the Democrats and use it as leverage to get funding for his wall.

Elections:

  1. A 1982 federal consent decree in New Jersey on voter rights expires, though the judge says it can be re-opened if violations against voters come up again. The decree was put in place when the Republican National Party was found guilty of voter intimidation and harassment and the RNC was barred from any activity that suppressed the vote. Yes, folks, the Republican party has been trying to suppress minority votes for at least 36 years.
  2. Senator Lindsey Graham says his party should learn something from nominating someone like Roy Moore.
  3. A retired Marine starts a write-in campaign to oppose Roy Moore in Alabama. Apparently there have been a large number of requests on how to write-in a new candidate.
  4. Trump endorses alleged child molester Roy Moore for Senate. Other Republicans who had come out against Moore because of the accusations (like Mitch McConnell) soften their stance and say they’ll let the people of Alabama decide.
  5. The Office of the Special Counsel begins investigating Kellyanne Conway over violations of the Hatch Act for using her office to campaign for alleged pedophile Roy Moore.
  6. Trump pushes Orrin Hatch to run again, likely because he wants to keep Mitt Romney out of the Senate.

Miscellaneous:

  1. Trump’s ethics lawyer resigns.
  2. Trump continues to bring up conspiracy theories in private, to name a few:
    • He questions the legitimacy of Obama’s birth certificate.
    • He says millions of undocumented immigrants voted for Hillary.
    • He says that the Russian investigation will exonerate him by Christmas.
    • He says that the Access Hollywood tape isn’t his voice despite previously saying it was. People around him say he’s convinced it isn’t his voice.
  1. Jeff Flake is the only GOP member of Congress calling him out on these things, while others shake their head and chuckle or refuse to go on record.
  2. Fox News goes off the air for good in the United Kingdom.
  3. Trump arrives in New York City for some fundraisers and is greeted by chants of “Lock him up!” Ah, Mike Flynn’s favorite campaign chant. Look who’s getting locked up now, Mike.

Polls:

  1. One of our parties needs a little more introspection, IMO. Despite the fact that sexual harassment is apolitical (and despite the fact that Republicans have been involved in nearly twice as many (known) sex scandals since 1980):
    • 76% of Republicans think Democrats have a serious problem with sexual harassment.
    • 40% of Republicans think Republicans have a serious problem with sexual harassment.
    • 43% of Republicans think it’s not an issue within their own party.
    • 60% of Democrats think Democrats have a serious problem with sexual harassment.
    • 75% of Democrats think Republicans have a serious problem with sexual harassment.

Stupid Things Politicians Say:

With the passage of the tax bill, members of Congress have just given up on any pretense they’re looking out for our best interests. Here are a few quotes:

  1. Senator Chuck Grassley: “I think not having the estate tax recognizes the people that are investing, as opposed to those that are just spending every darn penny they have, whether it’s on booze or women or movies.” (Even if he’s right, one group is hoarding and one group is putting their money back into the economy.)
  2. Representative Chris Collins: “My donors are basically saying: ‘Get it done or don’t ever call me again.’”
  3. Senator Cory Gardner: “Donors are furious.”
  4. Senator Lindsey Graham: “The financial contributions will stop [if we don’t pass tax reform].”
  5. Senator Orrin Hatch, on why we can’t fund CHIP yet, says CHIP has done a “terrific job for people who really need the help” and then “I have a rough time wanting to spend billions and billions and trillions of dollars to help people who won’t help themselves, won’t lift a finger and expect the federal government to do everything.” (Yes, those lazy-ass 8-year-olds who won’t help themselves…)
  6. Representative Steve Scalise: “Every time we’ve cut taxes you’ve seen the economy take off.” (Conveniently overlooking the tax cuts during George W. Bush’s entire presidency.)
  7. Donald Trump: “You know, for years they have not been able to get tax cuts, many, many years since Reagan.” (Except for that one time under Clinton, and all those times under Bush, and that time under Obama, I guess.)

Tax Bill Reconciliation

Posted on December 2, 2017 in Taxes

Now that both the Senate and the House have passed some sort of tax reform, they need to reconcile the differences between the two bills and take another vote once they come to an agreement. Here are the major differences:

The Healthcare Mandate

The Senate version eliminates the ACA’s individual mandate, meaning people don’t have to buy health insurance.

The House version keeps the mandate.

It’s estimated that the number of people without insurance would rise around 15% without the mandate.

Permanent and Temporary Cuts

The Senate version makes corporate tax cuts permanent, but lets the individual tax cuts expire.

The House version makes all tax cuts permanent for both corporations and individuals.

The difference here has to do with the Senate’s rules on passing financial bills.

Estate Tax

The Senate version doubles the unified tax credit for estates, but doesn’t repeal the estate tax.

The House doubles the unified tax credit over several years and then repeals it entirely.

Note that only .2% (that’s 1 in 1,000 estates) ever pay any estate taxes. Also note that with the step up in basis, repealing the estate tax means heirs don’t pay any taxes, even on capital gains.

Child Tax Credit

The Senate version increases the child tax credit to $2,000 per child, but certain low-income households wouldn’t qualify.

The House version increases the child tax credit to $1,600, but again certain low-income households wouldn’t qualify.

Both versions prevent undocumented parents from receiving the credit even if the child is a U.S. citizen. Marco Rubio and Mike Lee, both Republicans, tried to expand the credit to low-income households that pay payroll taxes, but it was defeated.

Mortgage Interest Deduction

The Senate version leaves the mortgage deduction as is.

The House version caps the amount of a loan for which interest can be deducted at $500,000.

Tax Brackets

The Senate version keeps the current number of brackets (7), but lowers the top rate to 38.5%.

The House version reduces the number of brackets from 7 to 4, and it looks like those who make the most in the new tax brackets will see a slight decrease in taxes and those at the bottom of each bracket will see a slight increase.

Corporate Tax Rate

The Senate version reduces the corporate tax rate to 20% starting in 2019.

The House version reduces the corporate tax rate to 20% starting in 2018.

But what about simplifying the corporate tax loopholes? I kind of thought that’s what this whole effort was all about.