Month: October 2017

Week 40 in Trump

Posted on October 30, 2017 in Politics, Trump

If you were wondering why all sorts of stories about investigations into Clinton popped up this week, we found out on Friday that Mueller filed the first charges in the Russia investigation. By the time I publish this, we’ll know much more about the charges, but the message for week 40 was deflect, deflect, deflect.

Here’s what happened.

Missed Previously:

Around the time that the U.S. recalled much of the diplomatic personnel from Cuba, we also expelled 15 Cuban diplomats from the U.S. I missed this when researching the mysterious symptoms our personnel were experiencing in Cuba.

Russia:

  1. Putin places Bill Browder on the Interpol list, which led to the U.S. border control temporarily halting his travel to the U.S. Browder was instrumental in the Magnitsky Act and he’s testified in the Russia investigation.
  2. Kaspersky Labs allows outside experts to come in and look at their software to dispel any worries that the Kremlin uses their products to spy on the U.S.
  3. Even though a foreign country worked to undermine our democracy, and even though we know they are still doing it and will continue doing it into the next elections, it doesn’t appear that Congress is motivated to do much about it. It’s up to us, people. Let’s not fall for the bullshit again.
  4. The Trump administration still hasn’t implemented the sanctions on Russia that Congress signed into law last August. They’re almost a month past deadline to implement the policy.
  5. It turns out that the reason behind the failure to implement sanctions is that Rex Tillerson dissolved the office responsible for that (the Coordinator for Sanctions Policy).
  6. With big news coming up in the Russia investigation, there’s a new push to deflect attention to Hillary Clinton:
    • Devin Nunez announces a new congressional probe into Russia’s relationship with the Clintons regarding a 2010 uranium mine deal.
    • Trump personally tells the Justice Department to lift a gag order on an FBI informant around the uranium deal so the informant can testify to Congress. The U.S. has already prosecuted Russian agents for bribery and kickbacks to a trucking a company.
    • The House announces two committee inquiries into James Comey’s handling of the Clinton email case and into the FBI’s 2016 investigation of some members of Trump‘s campaign.
    • We learn that the Podesta Group and its chairman Tony Podesta (brother of Clinton campaign manager John Podesta) is part of the Mueller investigation for working with Paul Manafort’s agency on a pro-Ukraine PR campaign.
    • The original funder of Fusion GPS’s opposition research on Trump is a conservative website, The Washington Free Beacon, which hired Fusion GPS in fall of 2015 presumably on behalf of a Republican primary candidate. This initial research found Trump’s business interests were heavily weighted toward Russia.
    • Around the time the Beacon stopped funding the opposition (in May), the DNC and Clinton campaign (through a lawyer) hired Fusion GPS to continue their work (in April).
    • Since Fusion GPS’s previous research had already led them to Russia, they contracted Steele to continue that line of research.
    • The Campaign Legal Center files a complaint with the FEC against the DNC and Clinton campaign saying they hid payments to Fusion GPS on their FEC filings.
    • Trump personally tells the State Department to speed up the release of all remaining Clinton emails.
    • Hyperbole much? Sebastian Gorka says Hillary should be tried for treason and executed.
  1. While much of the above is coming out now in an attempt to discredit the Steele dossier, the intelligence community came to their conclusions about Russia meddling without using the dossier at all.
  2. A top employee at Cambridge Analytica, the firm the Trump campaign used to target certain demographics, says he contacted Wikileaks about Clinton’s emails, offering to help index them so they’d be more easily searchable online. Julian Assange refused the offer. This occurred in August 2016. After we knew Russia was behind the hack, and after Cambridge Analytica started working with the Trump campaign.
  3. Trump plans to pay almost a half million dollars for his aides legal fees around the Russia investigation.
  4. Mueller files the initial charges in the Russia probe. As of the end of the week, they’re still sealed under orders from the court.
  5. After the charges are announced, Roger Stone unleashes a profane tirade on Twitter, which gets him banned permanently from Twitter.
  6. Twitter bans ads from Russia Today (RT) and Sputnik.
  7. Facebook, Twitter, and Google played a much bigger role in the election than we thought. The companies offered to embed their employees in both Clinton’s and Trump’s campaigns, though Clinton declined. Those employees created campaign strategies and communications for Trump’s campaign, including targeting voters and preparing responses to attacks.
  8. Natalia Veselnitskaya, the Russian lawyer who met with Donald Trump Jr. last year, says the information she had to share was from her own research, but it turns out that her paperwork included verbatim text from Russia’s prosecutor general.
  9. To help combat the disinformation campaign, Quartz creates a bot that hunts down political bots on Twitter, @probabot. You can follow it on Twitter.
  10. Trump’s personal lawyer, Michael Cohen, meets with the House Intelligence Committee to discuss a request he made to Dmitry Peskov for help in building Trump Tower Moscow. The request was made during the 2016 campaign.

Courts/Justice:

  1. The inspector general for the Treasury Department releases a report on the allegations that the IRS under Obama targeted conservative organizations for heavier scrutiny of eligibility for tax-exempt status. It turns out that equal scrutiny was given to both liberal and conservative groups during this time, and that both were more heavily scrutinized.
  2. However, despite all the above information, the DOJ under Sessions settles cases with some conservative groups anyway. The settlements are pending court approval.

Healthcare:

  1. The company that created OxyContin, Purdue Pharma, is spreading the opioid epidemic abroad. They’re pushing into international markets, and providing educational tools and text for medical schools.
  2. Trump declares a national public health emergency instead of a national emergency in the opioid epidemic. This gives agencies more flexibility in dealing with the problem but doesn’t provide funding like a national emergency would. This only provides $57,000 in funding and doesn’t improve access to the life-saving drug naloxone.
  3. Trump’s solution to the problem seems to be “just say no,” which didn’t work the first time we tried it in the 1980s. Agencies dealing with the crisis still haven’t been given direction from the administration.
  4. While opioid addiction is the big problem, the increased number of deaths seems to be coming from fentanyl mixed in with heroin.
  5. The CBO estimates that the latest bipartisan healthcare bill being proposed would reduce the deficit by $4 billion while funding the insurance subsidies and giving states more flexibility. They also say that not funding subsidies would increase the deficit by $194 billion over 9 years.
  6. Joshua Kushner, Jared’s brother, writes an op-ed supporting the ACA and criticizing Trump’s handling of it. He’s in the insurance industry.
  7. While industry experts say that the healthcare markets and associated premiums had pretty much stabilized, now it turns out that premiums are increasing 34% as a result of the uncertainty around Trump’s and the GOP’s policies.
  8. Congress let the funding for the Children’s Health Insurance Program (CHIP) expire more than three weeks ago. Some states can continue funding it for a few more months, but others are running out of money.

International:

  1. General Dunford holds a press conference to answer questions about how the troops died in Niger.
  2. It turns out that hardly any members of Congress knew we had so many troops in Niger. They’ve been there since 2013.
  3. While the administration has been pushing a narrative of success with security in Afghanistan, Rex Tillerson meets with the president of Afghanistan in what he says is the capital city of Kabul. But they actually met at a military base, as noticed by the military clock on the wall in the press photo of the two. At least Afghanistan PR was smart enough to photoshop the clock out of the picture.
  4. Trump says the end of the ISIS caliphate is in sight, and he could be right thanks to steady losses over the past three years. Anti-ISIS fighters have squeezed ISIS down into a tiny fraction of the land they once occupied.
  5. Jared Kushner takes an unannounced trip to Saudi Arabia to continue Middle East peace talks.
  6. Cuba blames the “sonic attacks” that led to many U.S. diplomats there returning home on cicadas. They got this from comparing recordings the U.S. embassy provided them for investigation.
  7. Airlines with direct flights to the U.S. from abroad must now comply with new HHS rules that include tougher screenings, including interviews with security. The tougher rules come from the findings earlier this year that explosive devices could be hidden inside laptops.
  8. Normally the different areas in Spain are mostly run by their own local governments, but the government of Spain is taking over Catalonia’s government after their recent attempt to gain independence.

Legislation/Congress:

  1. The House schedules a hearing on a heartbeat abortion bill. This could pass the House but it’s doubtful it would pass the Senate. Even if it gets signed into law, the courts would strike it down as it has with each state that’s tried to pass similar legislation.

Travel Ban/Immigration/Discrimination:

  1. ICE detains a 10-year-old with cerebral palsy immediately following an emergency surgery. She’s been in the U.S. since she was three months old.
  2. Trump lifts the refugee ban, but the administration caps the number of refugees allowed each year and implements new and more strict vetting rules.
  3. White Lives Matter holds rallies in Tennessee, chanting “Closed borders, white nation! Now we start the deportation!” I only found one incidence of violence, where white supremacists beat an interracial couple in a restaurant.
  4. Counter-protestors outnumber the White Lives Matter crowd, and they play Martin Luther King Jr.’s “I Have a Dream” speech over their speaker system, drowning out the White Lives Matter speakers.
  5. HUD secretary Ben Carson ends a rule to prevent housing segregation. The rule would’ve stopped a practice that limited the areas where low-income families could live and would’ve allowed them to move into areas with more opportunities. In response, civil rights groups sue Carson and HUD.
  6. While Trump goes ahead with his border wall prototypes, emails show a chaotic and confusing bidding process. Even basic details, like how and where to submit bids, were confusing. One industry expert says that this indicates the administration doesn’t have a clear picture of what they want. Shocking, I know.
  7. Senate Republicans form a group to work on immigration issues, including saving Dreamers.

Climate/EPA:

  1. China shuts down tens of thousands of factories in a crackdown on pollution violations. China has been making great headway in clean energy sources, but it needs to clean up its smog problem before it can make full use of solar, because the sun doesn’t make it through the smog enough.
  2. The National Park Service plans to increase fees to our national parks, in some cases more than double the current price. One example is Joshua Tree in California, where the price per car would go from $25 to $75, and would increase to $50 per motorcycle and $30 for biking or walking in.
  3. To compound matters, Trump’s budget cuts $400 million from parks. Members of Congress have proposed bipartisan bills that would use $12 billion in federal oil and gas revenue to pay for long-needed maintenance in the parks, which is the reason for the above increases.
  4. The Department of the Interior’s four-year strategic plan removes any mention of climate change. Rather than emphasizing conservation, their strategy appears to emphasize “American energy dominance” by exploiting public lands for their “vast amounts” of energy reserves.
  5. Trump announces plans to shrink two national monuments in Utah, Bears Ears and Grand Staircase – Escalante.
  6. Rick Perry wants to reward coal and nuclear plants for storing 90 days of fuel on site saying it makes the power grid more reliable. Natural gas and renewable energy producers, along with public utilities, say it would inhibit competition and increase prices for consumers.

Puerto Rico:

  1. A few GOP Senators hold up the disaster relief bill, citing concerns for Puerto Rico. Jeff Flake and Mike Lee have fiscal concerns but also want Puerto Rico to be able to ignore the Jones Act.
  2. The electric company that won the contract in Puerto Rico is a 2-man operation from Whitefish, MT, where Ryan Zinke is from.
  3. Two House committees and one federal watchdog (the Department of Homeland Security’s Office of Inspector General) open investigations into how the contract was awarded.
  4. Whitefish also gets into a Twitter war with San Juan’s mayor over her requests for an open process, threatening to stop working.
  5. While the contract with Whitefish says that FEMA reviewed and approved it, FEMA says they never saw it. And even though FEMA’s responsible for paying WhiteFish, the Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority (PREPA) is the agency that authorized the contract.
  6. The governor of Puerto Rico demands that PREPA cancel the contract with Whitefish citing a lack of transparency.
  7. The rates charged by Whitefish are more than double those that would be paid by the Army Corps of Engineers. The contract includes a clause that says the government can’t review the labor rates.
  8. Questions come up about the number of dead from hurricane Maria as well as the methodology of counting them. Some put the number closer to 1,000 than the official count of 51, largely due to lack of medical care after the hurricane struck.

Budget/Economy:

  1. Wall Street scores another win, as Republicans in the Senate barely pass a bill to repeal Obama-era rules about forced arbitration clauses. This repeal makes it harder for consumers to fight back against unscrupulous acts by financial institutions by allowing consumers to be forced into arbitration clauses. In other words, banks can sue you, but you can’t sue banks. The Obama-era rule is what allowed Wells Fargo customers to file a suit against the bank after learning Wells Fargo signed people up for accounts without their knowledge.
  2. The GOP tax and budget framework gets mixed reviews. Some of the changes include:
    • Immediate write-offs for equipment investment.
    • Cutting corporate tax rates, which decreases tax revenue and raises deficits.
    • Windfall subsidies on past corporate investments.
    • Not charging companies U.S. taxes on foreign income, which could encourage companies to ship jobs and profits overseas.
    • A $1 trillion cut to Medicaid and a $1/2 trillion cut to Medicare.
  1. 100% of leading economists surveyed don’t think the tax plan will boost the economy enough to pay for itself.
  2. While Senators Corker, Flake, and McCain have been speaking up for what they think is morally right, they all also just voted to give consumers no recourse when they are swindled by banks and they voted for a tax cut for the wealthy accompanied by a $1.5 trillion cut to healthcare for the elderly and needy.
  3. The currently approved framework leaves 401K limits alone for now. Previously, Congress floated dropping the annual limit that you can put in your 401K from $18,000 to $2,400.
  4. There’s disagreement among Republicans in Congress over getting rid of two tax deductions, one for local property taxes and one for state taxes.
  5. Building contractors and realtors object to the possibility of removing the tax deduction on mortgage interest.
  6. Scott Garrett, Trump’s pick for the import-export bank, goes before the Senate November 1. In the model of other Trump appointees who’s job seems to be dismantling their agencies, Garrett has spent many years trying to dismantle the bank.
  7. Every investor in Trump Tower Toronto lost money on their investment except Trump.
  8. Since Trump made his “Buy American” promise, imports of foreign steel are up 24%.
  9. Republicans in Congress are increasingly certain they can pass tax reform by year’s end. They think passing reform will cause some Republicans to rethink their decision to retire out of frustration at not being able to get anything done. The push for passing tax reform is so strong because the GOP thinks this will secure them majorities in the House and Senate in 2018. They plan to run a multi-million-dollar ad campaign to promote their plan.
  10. Congressional Republicans worry that Trump will make passing tax reform harder by what he says and does. Remember the hit the ACA repeal effort took when Trump called the House healthcare plan “mean.”

Elections:

  1. The Government Accountability Office (GAO) announces it will investigate Trump’s voter fraud commission over how it’s using federal funds, its methodology, and how it’s protecting voter information and following regulations.
  2. Trump’s voter fraud commission isn’t keeping the Democrats on the commission in the loop.

Miscellaneous:

  1. File this one under hypocrisy. After criticizing Democrats for not distancing themselves from Weinstein fast enough, not returning his donated money fast enough, and not doing enough to stop him, FoxNews brings accused predator Bill O’Reilly back on air to let him air his grievances about being set up. I’m sure the women he’s harassed were thrilled to see him there.
  2. On top of that, we learn that before FoxNews fired him, they renewed O’Reilly’s contract for $100 million for four years, and this was after he settled what was at least his SIXTH sexual harassment suit, this one for $32 million dollars. So please stop trying to make sexual predation a political issue. It’s a power issue.
  3. Trump has a very bad Tuesday. Jeff Flake gives a 20-minute impassioned critique on the Senate floor about the state of politics and Trump, saying he won’t run again. Bob Corker gives a brutally honest 6-minute interview on the way to the GOP lunch. And then, as Trump walks to the lunch with Mitch McConnell, a protestor throws Russian flags at them and calls Trump a traitor.
  4. Both Mitch McConnell and John McCain praise Flake for his speech on the Senate floor. Sarah Huckabee Sanders calls it petty and not “befitting of the Senate floor.”
  5. The latest Pew Research study on politics and policy shows that a majority of both Republicans and Democrats think that “their side” is losing. Surprising for Republicans, since they control the federal government and over half of state governments.
  6. Trump brags for at least the 20th time this year about getting standing ovations, this time at the Senate luncheon.
  7. Trump announces the release of the remaining JFK files as per a pre-scheduled release date, but there’s a short delay because they didn’t know that certain files needed to be reviewed and redacted. Several documents were released, but some will be released next April.
  8. The Education Department is no longer fully protecting students who were defrauded by for-profit colleges. Instead of forgiving their loans, which was the policy under Obama, the students are responsible for half the amount.
  9. In a profile with Politico, John Boehner blames the increasing divide and partisanship on the rise of talk radio and social media. He also says “Fuck [Rep. Jim] Jordan. Fuck [Rep. Jason] Chaffetz. They’re both assholes.” Jordan helped cofound the Freedom Caucus (which caused Boehner no end of trouble) and Chaffetz chaired the House Oversight Committee. It’s a long piece, but lots of interesting tidbits.
  10. Ajit Pai announces plans to loosen media ownership regulations, opening the door for even more consolidation in media outlets and less consumer choice. The FCC will vote on this in November.
  11. As of this week, 1 in 5 Senate Republicans have been the target of Trump’s attacks, including Bob Corker, Ted Cruz, Jeff Flake, Lindsey Graham, Dean Heller, John McCain, Mitch McConnell, Lisa Murkowski, Rand Paul, Marco Rubio, and Ben Sasse. The great negotiator might be forgetting that he can only afford to lose two Republican votes on any Senate bill.

Polls:

  1. 58% of Republicans say that Trump is the hardest working president since WWII. This, despite the fact that as of October 22, he has spent 75 out of 279 days playing golf, or 1 of every 3.7 days. Or 3 times as much vacation times as Obama took by this time.
  2. 71% of Americans think U.S. politics “have reached a dangerous low point.” 80% say Congress is dysfunctional. 60% say Trump is making it more dysfunctional.
  3. The percent of American who think politicians are honest has dropped from 39 to 14 since 1987.
  4. 87% think politicians will do whatever it takes to get re-elected.
  5. 48% of registered voters prefer a Congress controlled by Democrats. 41% prefer Republican control.
  6. 53% of military officers disapprove of Trump, and 40% of all troops disapprove of him.

Stupid Things Politicians Say:

“The people that made the Russians successful are the Democrats, and the people who have continued this nonsense over and over and over again, looking for Russians behind every tree.”

– House Intelligence Committee Chairman Devin Nunes (R-CA), as a way of blaming Democrats for the Russian meddling in 2016. Even though what really made the Russians successful were the people who believed and helped spread the fake stories out of Russia and Macedonia.

Week 39 in Trump

Posted on October 23, 2017 in Politics, Trump

You wanna know how much faith we can put in Congressional hearings? Here’s a quote from Trey Gowdy, who relentlessly ran the Benghazi hearings that repeatedly found Clinton not guilty of anything while dragging her through the mud for a few years.

“Congressional investigations unfortunately are usually overtly political investigations, where it is to one side’s advantage to drag things out,” says Gowdy. “The notion that one side is playing the part of defense attorney and that the other side is just these white-hat defenders of the truth is laughable … This is politics.”

And apparently a waste of time that the taxpayers fund. Kevin McCarthy said as much when he said that the Benghazi hearings had done the intended job of smearing Clinton (which did lose him the speakership, so at least there’s that). I think we’ll have to rely on Mueller, not Congress, to learn what really happened last year.

That’s my rant and here’s what happened in week 39.

Russia:

  1. Here’s what we learn this week about Russian troll farm workers:
    • They had a quota for the number of political and non-political posts they had to make, as well as for the number of daily comments. They wanted to flood social media with agitating propaganda (agitprop).
    • One troll worker says “Our goal wasn’t to turn the Americans toward Russia. Our task was to set Americans against their own government: to provoke unrest and discontent, and to lower Obama’s support ratings.” Well done, guys.
    • Their goal was to smear Hillary in three ways: Bill Clinton’s sex scandals, the Clintons’ wealth, and her use of a private email server.
    • They had to watch “House of Cards” to learn about American politics.
    • They organized events, rallies, and protests in the U.S. and hired activists to hold rallies. The activists didn’t know they were working for Russia.
  2. U.S. investigators now believe that a man called Putin’s chef, Yevgeny Prigozhin, was behind one of the Russian troll farms.
  3. Fusion GPS, the company that commissioned the Steele dossier, objects to the previous week’s subpoenas from the House Intelligence Committee, saying they aren’t even sure if Devin Nunes has the authority to sign off on them. Nunes is supposed to be recused from the investigation.
  4. Facebook wants to hire people with national security clearance, likely to help prevent future attempts by foreign agents to manipulate information on the site.
  5. Mueller interviews Matt Tait, the cyber expert who was recruited by Peter Smith to collude with Russia. He wrote a pretty interesting blog on it called The Time I Got Recruited to Collude with the Russians.
  6. Sean Spicer meets with Robert Mueller’s team. They talk about James Comey’s firing and Trump’s meeting with Russian officials.
  7. The Senate Intelligence Committee subpoenas Carter Page, who has been refusing to testify.
  8. Corey Lewandowski, Trump’s former campaign manager, meets with the Senate Intelligence Committee.
  9. Jeff Sessions testifies before the Senate Judiciary Committee to defend the firing of James Comey. Sessions hasn’t been interviewed by Mueller yet.
  10. Members of the House Oversight Committee push for subpoenas of the White House for documents about Michael Flynn. The documents they are looking for could lead to criminal prosecution, though, and Congress doesn’t prosecute crimes.
  11. A bipartisan bill in the Senate would force social media companies to disclose who purchased an online political ad so we would know if it was Russian-sponsored.
  12. Russian state-owned media RT misses its deadline to register as a foreign agent under FARA after a DOJ request to do so.
  13. In an about-face, Putin says the American people need to stop disrespecting Trump.
  14. In a tweet, Trump basically accuses the FBI, Russia, and the Mueller investigation of conspiracy to frame him.
  15. Partisanship gets in the way of the congressional investigations of Russia, leading some to express concern that each committee will come to two different conclusions.
  16. Mike Pompeo, head of the CIA, says Russian meddling didn’t affect the results of the election, even though the intelligence report concludes that was Russia’s aim. Whether they were successful hasn’t been concluded yet.

Courts/Justice:

  1. A district judge refuses to vacate Joe Arpaio’s criminal contempt conviction, even though Trump pardoned him. Judge Bolton says the pardon doesn’t change the historical facts of the case. So while Arpaio won’t have to do jail time, he might now be more vulnerable to civil suits.
  2. Trump personally interviews two candidates for U.S. District Attorney in New York, opening up the question of whether the people hired for these jobs will be beholden to him. This is a big question in light of Mueller seeming to look for state crimes as well as federal.
  3. The DOJ dropped a request to obtain the names of Facebook users who liked a specific inauguration day protest page. This was part of the investigation into inauguration day riots, but this request was seen as overreach.
  4. Justices Kagan and Gorsuch spar behind the scenes, and not in the good way Supreme Court justices typically do.

Healthcare:

  1. Eighteen states and DC sue Trump over stopping the ACA subsidy payments.
  2. After Trump’s decision to end healthcare subsidies, states work frantically to approve higher insurance rates to shore up the insurance companies and to stop them from leaving their markets. Medical and insurance stocks took a hit after Trump’s announcement.
  3. Pennsylvania’s insurance commissioner says that insurance premiums will rise in Philadelphia an average of 30% due to Trump’s gutting of the ACA last week. Oregon has already told insurers to go ahead and raise premiums.
  4. Republicans scramble to work out a deal that would continue the ACA subsidy payments, and a bipartisan agreement looks possible. Lamar Alexander and Patty Murray create an agreement that could stabilize markets in the short term. Note that this is not a bill yet, it’s just a deal that they think both sides can get behind.
  5. Trump expresses opposition to the bipartisan bill, and then later expresses support for it in a speech, and then later blasts the bill in a tweet. So I don’t know if he’s for or against it, but I think in the end he’s against it.
  6. Paul Ryan doesn’t support the bipartisan agreement. All Democrats in the Senate say they’ll support it, which, combined with the 12 Republican cosponsors of the bill, gives a filibuster-proof majority.
  7. The association health care plans Trump is pushing in place of the individual market have a history of fraud and abuse, as shown in dozens of court cases. In many cases, people were left on the hook for medical expenses that should’ve been covered by insurance.
  8. Trump blindsided officials with his promise of an emergency declaration on the opioid crisis. Those officials scramble to create such a plan, saying they aren’t ready for it and there’s no consensus on how to implement it.
  9. Betty Price, Georgia state Representative and wife of former HHS secretary Tom Price, suggests that people with HIV should be quarantined, and that in the past it wasn’t so much of a problem because they “died more readily.”
  10. Due to the shortened enrollment period for the ACA, people who are automatically re-enrolled in their policy might not be getting the best option. Previously they’d receive a reminder to look for less expensive or more comprehensive policies. But the shortened period doesn’t give enough time for that.
  11. Republican representative Tom Marino, Trump’s pick for drug czar, removes himself from the running due to his involvement in passing legislation that made it easier to distribute opioids while making it harder for the DEA to stop it.

International:

  1. After reading the provisions of Trump’s Iran decree, it’s pretty apparent to me that he doesn’t understand that the Iran agreement is about nuclear proliferation only. It doesn’t address terrorism or security and that wasn’t the intent.
  2. Forces backed by the U.S. liberate Raqqa from ISIS. ISIS has been consistently losing physical ground for several years now.
  3. Two groups supported by the U.S. are fighting in Iraq. The Kurds want to separate from Iraq, which has spurred an armed conflict between the two.
  4. The U.S. military starts evacuation drills to practice what they would do in case of armed conflict with North Korea.
  5. Rex Tillerson says that our foreign policy is “resilient enough to accommodate unknowns,” including Trump’s tweets. While the tweets catch him off guard, Tillerson tries to include those messages in his strategies.
  6. Japan holds a snap election so prime minister Abe can bolster support to update their constitution. The U.S. occupied Japan after WWII and rewrote their constitution to limit their military might. With the new threat from North Korea, Japan wants to build back up its military.
  7. Trump tweets “United Kingdom crime rises 13% annually amid spread of Radical Islamic terror.” The U.K. Agency that published the crime stats says this is false; the rise in crime has nothing to do with terrorism. It’s possible this information came from a conspiracy TV network, OANN.
  8. Information is still sketchy about the deaths of four Green Berets in Niger. The Pentagon is investigating the attack to determine whether our forces there were on an unapproved mission or just routine patrol. There are conflicting stories about what happened.
  9. We should expect hearings over Niger. There was no overhead surveillance, no American quick-reaction force to back them up, French back-up couldn’t use force, and one body was found a mile away and two days later.
  10. Chad helps us and our allies fight Islamic extremists, and has been since 2012. It’s where we set up strategic headquarters for the counterterrorist fight in Africa. They don’t have a lot of people joining Islamic militants, but neighboring places do (like Niger).
    • A few weeks ago, Trump adds Chad to the travel ban. (How does Chad end up on the banned list and not, say, Niger? No one knows. Maybe because Chad fined Exxon $74 billion?)
    • The state department and military oppose the move, and experts warn that putting Chad on the travel ban puts Americans in danger, as reported a few weeks back.
    • Four Green Berets are killed in Niger.
    • Chad begins removing troops from the fight in Niger against Islamic extremists.
    • Finally we find out. It turns out that Chad ran out of passport paper when they needed to send the administration a sample, and that’s how they ended up on the travel ban.
    • CORRECTION: It looks like Chad moved their troops after the ambush on our soldiers. I updated the order above. Given this chronology, the events appear to be unrelated.
  11. At China’s Communist Party congress, Prime Minister Xi pushes an agenda to make China a stronger military and economic powerhouse, fight government corruption, and be a global leader in trade and global warming. He’s not wasting any time in taking advantage of the void left by the U.S.

Legislation/Congress:

  1. Six Republicans members on the House Ways and Means Committee are retiring or resigning from Congress. That’s about a quarter of the GOP members of this elite panel who are checking out. Representatives spend years trying to get on this panel.
  2. Congress is going to make Dreamers wait to find out their fate; they’re completely focused on tax reform right now.
  3. Interestingly, one congressional aide says they have the bandwidth to deal with both tax reform and immigration, but only if Democrats agree to increased border security. Democrats have already indicated support for enhanced security, just not a border wall.

Travel Ban/Immigration/Discrimination:

  1. In the midst of the anthem debate, the NFL throws its support behind criminal justice reform.
  2. Colin Kaepernick files a grievance against the NFL, accusing them of colluding against him.
  3. NFL owners decide not to change their rules. Players can kneel or stand during the anthem. Trump continues his war on the NFL.
  4. A federal judge in Hawaii blocks Trump’s travel ban nationwide just hours before it would’ve taken effect. The block does not include the ban on travel from North Korea and Venezuela.
  5. A day later, a second federal judge, this time in Maryland, blocks the travel ban.
  6. Donald Trump Jr.‘s take on sexual harassment in the workplace (at least last year) is this: “If you can’t handle some of the basic stuff that’s become a problem in the workforce today, then you don’t belong in the workforce. Like, you should go maybe teach kindergarten.” Or maybe men should just not sexually harass women. Or discriminate against them.
  7. A unit of an upstate New York police department surveils Black Lives Matters members despite being told by the courts to stop. This comes on top of learning that black activist groups are being eyed as terrorist groups by some in the FBI, raising concerns of racial profiling and further marginalization.
  8. The Customs and Border Patrol denies Indonesia’s military chief entry to the U.S. He was invited to an event by U.S. General Joseph Dunford, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. U.S. officials apologize, but Indonesia is demanding answers.
  9. We learn that Trump teases Mike Pence about his views on the LGBTQ community, having joked around that Pence wants to hang all gays. He also teases him for a lack of success in making abortion illegal, and for making people pray. Real funny stuff.
  10. Businesses band together in the Coalition for the American Dream to support Dreamers and push immigration reform, focusing entirely on Republican legislators. Here are a few of those businesses: Microsoft, IBM, Facebook, Google, Apple, Cisco, Intel, Uber, Lyft, Airbnb, Spotify, Under Armour, Chobani, Marriott, Hilton, Ikea, and Best Buy.
  11. Hotels have been quietly refusing to let white nationalists book their conventions at the hotels.
  12. White nationalist Richard Spencer speaks to an unfriendly crowd at the University of Florida in Gainesville. Three of Spencer’s supporters are arrested for attempted homicide after shooting guns at protestors.
  13. Trump considers suspending the refugee family reunification program, which allows the families of refugees to join them in the U.S. He’s also looking at putting women from designated high-risk countries through the same scrutiny as men.

Climate/EPA:

  1. Environmental groups often sue the EPA to get them to enforce their own regulations, but Scott Pruitt makes this more difficult and expensive by ending the practice of settling lawsuits against the EPA. This could backfire, though, if the courts find against the EPA in future suits.
  2. A study links pollution to almost 1 in every 6 deaths in 2015, mostly from air pollution, mostly in rapidly industrializing nations, and mostly affecting children and the poor. So yes, let’s dismantle the EPA.
  3. Three EPA experts were scheduled to speak about their findings in a 500-page report on climate change effects on an eastern estuary. The EPA cancels their appearance, intensifying concerns that the government will prevent scientists from talking about climate change or even from working on climate issues.

  4. The EPA says higher radiation levels have no harmful health effects, setting the acceptable level for drinking water at 10 times what it was under Obama. Previous EPA guidelines said that NO level was safe.
  5. The EPA removes yet more climate change resources from its website. These resources helped local governments to deal with the effects of climate change that affect them directly and to come up with plans to adapt.
  6. A Trump appointee to the EPA was a leader in the chemical industry. She’s trying to change the rules to make it harder to track perfluorooctanoic acid, of PFOA, which is linked to serious health problems like kidney cancer and birth defects. The EPA has struggled to keep PFOA from contaminating our drinking water. This appointee has also proposed rewriting a dozen rules in order to align the EPA more with the chemical industry’s wishes.

Puerto Rico:

  1. The USNS Comfort is still mostly empty instead of handling urgent patients in Puerto Rico. Only 13% of the beds are being used, despite a great need and overwhelmed hospitals on the island.
  2. Reports are that the death count in Puerto Rico is inaccurate and could possibly be up to 450. Congressional Democrats request an accurate count.
  3. According to recent interviews, many Trump supporters who were victims of the Houston hurricane and are receiving government funds to rebuild don’t think that Puerto Ricans should receive the same assistance. The overriding sentiment here appears to be that Houstonians aren’t taking advantage of the system, but those darn Puerto Ricans are. Makes you proud to be an American, right?
  4. About a month into recovery, Trump rates his hurricane response to Puerto Rico a 10 out of 10. 30% of the island is still without drinking water and 80% are still without power. St. Croix and the U.S. Virgin Islands also have around 80% without power.

Budget/Economy:

  1. The Senate approves a budget that lets the GOP avoid a Democratic filibuster. The House needs to sign an identical version to bypass the filibuster.
  2. The Senate version of the budget cuts energy and national resource spending by $1 billion over a decade. It also calls for legislation to cut domestic spending by $5.1 trillion, including cutting Medicaid by $1 trillion and medicare by $470 billion.
  3. The House version includes a directive for the oversight and reform committee to find ways to save $32 billion over 10 years.
  4. Republican Senator Bob Corker calls the Senate budget a “meaningless hoax” and says it’s only designed to bypass the Democrats in order to sign a tax plan.
  5. Republicans are considering reducing the allowable annual 401K contribution from $18,000 per year to $2,400, reducing workers’ ability to save for retirement.
  6. Almost half the income from pass-through corporations goes to the top 1%. Almost 80% of pass-through income goes to the top 20%. So Republicans are incorrect when they say their tax break for pass-through corporations will help middle income ranges and small business owners.
  7. In talking about the latest budget, Mulvaney admits that it’s difficult to cut spending in Washington.
  8. Trump pushes for bipartisan tax reform, but it’s already too late for that. Republicans have already been working behind closed doors for weeks.
  9. Steve Mnuchin warns that if Congress fails to cut taxes, they could tank the stock market. I’m not sure if that was a warning or a threat.
  10. He also says that it’s hard not to give tax cuts to the wealthy.
  11. Because marijuana is still not federally legal, marijuana farmer’s can’t get crop insurance. Farmers in Northern California lost millions in the fires that they won’t be able to recoup.

Elections:

  1. Trump says he’ll try to talk Steve Bannon out of his “season of war” against Republicans in next year’s elections. Trump and McConnell meet about this, and afterward, Trump says they’re closer than ever.
  2. On average, a member of Congress running for re-election raises $24,149 each week. Maybe we should get the money out of politics so they can legislate instead of fundraise.
  3. Trump’s campaign has raised $36,469,896 this year.
  4. Joe Arpaio speaks at a fundraiser at the Trump National Golf Club in Southern California in support of a GOP opponent to Representative Maxine Waters.

Miscellaneous:

  1. In one week, John McCain, Barack Obama, and George Bush all take thinly veiled jabs at the Trump administration and the nationalism and populism that put him in office.
  2. In his speech accepting the Liberty Medal, John McCain warned against “half-baked, spurious nationalism.” In his own words: “We will not thrive in a world where our leadership and ideals are absent. To fear the world we have organized and led for three-quarters of a century, to abandon the ideals we have advanced around the globe, to refuse the obligations of international leadership and our duty to remain the last best hope of earth for the sake of some half-baked, spurious nationalism cooked up by people who would rather find scapegoats than solve problems is as unpatriotic as an attachment to any other tired dogma of the past that Americans consigned to the ash heap of history.”
  3. Afterward, Trump warns McCain to be careful, because eventually Trump will fight back.
  4. Also, during a panel discussion, Condoleezza Rice and Madeleine Albright school Nikki Haley on statesmanship.
  5. According to Forbes, Trump’s worth dropped by $600 million over the past year due to a tough New York real estate market, expensive lawsuits, and an expensive presidential campaign. Also, the least wealthy person on the Forbes richest 400 Americans is worth $2 billion. 169 billionaires didn’t make the list this year.
  6. John Kelly gives Cabinet members more freedom to choose their staff, reversing the way things were done under Reince Priebus. So maybe they’ll finally get staffed up.
  7. As part of an ongoing suit resulting from sexual harassment charges, subpoenas are issued to Trump for any documents from his campaign that relate to any woman that accused him of sexual assault or harassment
  8. 6,663 Texas inmates pulled together $53,863 in donations for Hurricane Harvey relief efforts.
  9. When a reporter asks Trump why he hadn’t yet made a statement yet about the deaths of the four soldiers in Niger, it launches the week’s wars. Trump accuses previous presidents, and specifically Obama, of not calling the families of fallen troops–this is easily disproven. As is his claim that he calls all the families, which leads his staff to scramble to get the names of all soldiers fallen this year so Trump can hurry up and call them. Trump drags John Kelly unwillingly into the fray. One of his calls to the families of the four Green Berets killed in Niger is leaked leading to a fight with both a Congresswoman and the widow of the deceased soldier. And then Kelly joins the fight, and seriously things just get so darn ugly. You need a chart of all the missteps just to keep it straight. Trump could’ve ended this with a single empathetic phone call.
  10. All five living ex-president come together for a fundraising concert for hurricane victims.
  11. Shareholders at Tribune Media vote to approve the merger with Sinclair Broadcasting, though the FCC is still taking public comment.
  12. Trump signs an Executive Order to expand the authority of service secretaries to recall both enlisted and officer retirees to Active Duty.
  13. Trump brags about discrediting the media when a poll comes out showing nearly half of Americans don’t trust the media. He says they make up stories about him. Real media sources literally do not do this.
  14. As of this week, the Education Department under Betsy Devon has rescinded 72 documents defining rights for students with disabilities. They say the documents are outdated or unnecessary, but disability rights groups are reviewing them.
  15. 18 Democratic attorneys general sue Betsy DeVos over her department’s refusal enforce rules that protect people from predatory colleges.
  16. Trump promised to drain the swamp, but only one of his five proposals to limit lobbying is implemented so far. Spending on lobbying came to nearly $1.7 billion for the first half of this year, which is the highest since 2012.
  17. Fox and Friends increasingly sets the media tone for the day. Trump watches it in the morning, tweets something from it, and the rest of the media takes the bait.
  18. Trump announces he’ll declassify the remaining JFK assassination files.

Polls:

  1. Nearly 60% of Americans think the current tax plan favors the rich.
  2. 66% of Americans want the ACA fixed instead of repealed.
  3. Trump’s attacks on the media are working. 46% of voters think that the media makes up stories about Trump and his staff. 76% of Republicans believe it.
  4. 42% of Americans think Trump will go down as one of worst presidents in history.

Week 38 In Trump

Posted on October 16, 2017 in Politics, Trump

Trump spent the week lobbing grenades—into the healthcare market, into the budget and tax reform plans, into the NFL, at Bob Corker, and into the Iran agreement. Now his Cabinet and Congress have to figure out how to put out the fires he started.

And speaking of fires, the devastation in Northern California is unlike anything I’ve ever seen. If you’re looking for ways to help out, Fast Policy gives a number of resources: https://www.fastcompany.com/40479325/how-to-help-napa-fire-victims-8-things-you-can-do-for-californias-wine-country-right-now

And here’s what happened in week 38. As always, if I missed something, let me know.

Russia:

  1. In contrast to what Donald Trump Jr.’s email records show, a lawyer for one of the Russians present at the Trump Tower meeting last year claims to have documents showing that the meeting was not about getting dirt on Clinton. This is likely going to be their defense against collusion.
  2. Congressman Devin Nunes again puts himself in the middle of the Russia investigation (from which he is supposed to be recused), and signs off on new subpoenas to Fusion GPS. He seems to be doing this on his own without approval from the committee.
  3. We learn where the Kaspersky Lab intel came from. Israeli intelligence watched in real time as Russian government hackers exploited software from Kaspersky Lab to search for American intelligence program code names. Israeli officials gave us the heads up. Ironically (and ICYDK) Kaspersky is security software.
  4. Carter Page says he won’t cooperate with requests to appear in front of the Senate Intelligence Committee, and will plead the 5th if forced to appear.
  5. Bob Mueller’s team interviews Reince Priebus.
  6. Paul Manafort has business dealings worth $60 million with Russian oligarch Oleg Deripaska, who has close ties to the Kremlin.
  7. The background check chief says he’s never seen the level of mistakes on any clearance form as were found on Jared Kushner’s.
  8. Researchers find thousands of additional posts that were part of the Russian disinformation campaign but that had been hidden on Facebook. Also, due to their terms of agreement, Twitter had deleted several posts by Russian agents, and they aren’t sure whether they can retrieve that information.
  9. Cambridge Analytica, which is partially owned by Steve Bannon and which provided big data services to the Trump campaign, begins turning over documents to the House Intelligence Committee.
  10. The House Intelligence Committee plans to release the Facebook ads bought and spread by Russians during the election. There are around 3,000 of them.

Courts/Justice:

  1. North Carolina Republicans pass a bill to get rid of primary elections for state judges, another attempt to control the courts. These guys have already been reprimanded by federal courts for their voter ID restrictions and unlawful district lines, both of which target minority voters. The governor vetoes the bill, but Republicans have a supermajority and can override the veto.
  2. Every time Trump deletes a tweet, the question comes up of whether it’s a violation of the Presidential Records Act. The DOJ argues in court that Trump can destroy records without judicial review. The DOJ also says it’s OK for Trump to delete secret recordings and phone records, even if they think those records might be subpoenaed in connection to an investigation.

Healthcare:

  1. The Trump administration’s cuts in funding and lack of outreach for ACA enrollment affects groups across the country. The funding for Michigan Consumers for Health Care was cut by 89%. The Ohio Association of Foodbanks’ funding was cut by 71%. The Cheyenne Regional Medical Center was cut by 61%, the Utah Health Policy Project by 61%, and the South Carolina Palmetto Project by 46%.
  2. Tired of Congress failing to repeal the ACA, Trump does his best to take it down this week:
    • He signs a new executive order that would allow individuals and small businesses to group themselves into association health plans that would let them negotiate prices better. The order also would allow insurers in that market to provide policies that don’t cover all medical expenses mandated by the ACA. While this could reduce costs for younger or healthier Americans, it could raise costs for older or sicker Americans.
    • He then signs an order directing his agencies to “repeal and replace the disastrous Obamacare law and provide real relief to the American people” because “the government cannot lawfully make the cost-sharing reduction payments.”
  3. Trump nearly walks out of the signing ceremony for his executive order gutting the ACA without signing the bill.
  4. Experts say this kind of fuckery will cause insurance premiums to soar, insurance companies to flee markets, costs to rise, and millions to lose insurance.
  5. Trump admits he did this to sabotage the ACA and blackmail Democrats into “helping him fix it.”
  6. Insurance companies warn that premiums and out-of-pocket cost will go up, and covered medical expenses will be reduced as a result of this order.
  7. The CBO and insurance companies warn of increasing premiums and out-of-pocket costs, reducing coverage for medical expenses, adding $194 billion to the deficit, millions of Americans losing coverage, and a 20-25% increase in premium costs. In other words, the government will spend more to insure fewer.
  8. Trump says he’ll oppose any attempt by Congress to rescue Obamacare unless he gets something in return. It sounds like he thinks he’s been giving away too much and not getting anything in return, and this is his way of setting new negotiation terms.
  9. Twenty states and Washington DC threaten lawsuits over this week’s orders.
  10. Washington state, Massachusetts, California, and the ACLU sue over Trump’s new restrictions on birth control coverage under the ACA.
  11. Fourteen commonly used prescription drugs are sourced out of Puerto Rico. The hurricane damage could cause a shortage of the drugs people depend on for their health.

International:

  1. NBC reports that Trump asked the military to increase our nuclear warheads tenfold—a violation of international treaties. Trump responds by threatening to challenge their broadcast license. Trump’s request stemmed from a presentation that showed the gradual decline of our nuclear stocks, but our military posture is stronger right now than it was at the height of our nuclear buildup.
  2. An overwhelming number of groups, both national and international, diplomatic and military, Democrat and Republican, urge Trump to stay in the Iran nuclear agreement, saying it’s against our security interest to decertify it.
  3. Trump refuses to recertify the Iran agreement, punting the issue to Congress to either impose sanctions again or find ways to change the agreement. The international community opposes this move, although France is open to hardening the conditions of the agreement a bit. It’s not likely we’ll get a better deal.
  4. Iran threatens to bomb U.S. bases as a result.
  5. North Korean hackers go after U.S. electrical power companies using spearphishing emails.
  6. Trump withdraws the U.S. from UNESCO, the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization, saying it’s because of their anti-Israel bias. Note that the U.S. has had issues with UNESCO for several years.
  7. A truck bomb in Mogadishu, Somalia, kills nearly 300 people. The government blames Al Shabab.
  8. Trump says how much he wants to end NAFTA, though Mexico warns it would hamper their joint efforts to stem the flow of drugs between countries.
  9. Justin Trudeau says that American negotiators are throwing proposals into the NAFTA negotiations that are deal breakers, possibly in an attempt to destroy the agreement.
  10. The Chamber of Commerce warns that ending NAFTA would pose an “existential threat” to North America’s economic and national security.
  11. In Palestine, Fatah and Hamas agree on a unity deal where they combine security and government control.
  12. Cyberheists are big business in North Korea, bringing in up to $1 billion a year. That’s a third of the nation’s exports.

Legislation/Congress:

  1. Congress won’t move on gun laws, but California just did. The state passes three gun laws this week:
    • People convicted of hate crime misdemeanors can’t buy or have a firearm for 10 years.
    • School employees can’t bring firearms to work.
    • Since the Centers for Disease Control is not allowed to study gun violence, California will fund its own gun violence research.

Travel Ban/Immigration/Discrimination:

  1. Trump threatens to use the new tax reform bill to penalize the NFL teams whose players take a knee.
  2. NFL owners and Goodell appear to express disapproval of player protests. Trump tweets that the NFL did what he wanted, the NFL denies his and says that’s not what the letter they published said. Goodell’s memo asked players to stand but also validated the issues that the protesting players are trying to bring attention to.
  3. But Trump continues to escalate this war with the NFL.
  4. Republican Senator Thom Willis and Democrat Dick Durbin are working together on a clean Dreamer act that would allow undocumented immigrants who were brought here as minors to obtain permanent status. They fear something needs to be done sooner than later or these people who have lived here all their lives could be deported.
  5. Trump again demands border wall funding in return for Dreamer legislation.
  6. Trump speaks at the Values Voters Summit in DC. This makes him the first president to speak at the gathering, which includes white supremacists, homophobes, and far-right activists. He promises them that they will no longer be silenced. I wonder if he saw the anti-gay pamphlets in the swag bag? The group is considered a hate group by the Southern Poverty Law Center.
  7. Trump says he will extend the DACA deadline himself if Congress doesn’t act in time.
  8. Homeland Security looks at ways to reform immigration itself without the help of Congress. Ideas include clamping down on unaccompanied minors, tightening visa rules to limit legal immigrations, and expanding the use of quick deportations.
  9. The Supreme Court dismisses one of the challenges to Trump’s now expired travel ban, not on the merits of the challenge but because the ban is expired making the challenge moot.

Climate/EPA:

  1. Scott Pruitt of the EPA officially announces plans to rescind the Clean Power Plan, Obama’s rule to limit greenhouse gas emissions. Pruitt as much as told Fox News earlier this year that environmental health isn’t his priority; jobs are.
  2. The EPA’s current estimate is that the Clean Power Plan would prevent up to 6,600 premature deaths and 150,000 asthma attacks.
  3. Pruitt wants to eliminate tax credits for solar and wind power, saying all power industries should be on a level playing field. I’m sure he’s aware of all the subsidies received by the fossil fuel industry as well, right?
  4. Scott Pruitt removes mention of climate change, greenhouse gases, and carbon dioxide completely from the EPA’s 4-year plan. He says the EPA’s priorities are ensuring clean air, land, and water; giving states more power; and enforcing laws. Forget global warming.
  5. Trump nominates climate change skeptic Kathleen Hartnet to lead the White House’s environmental policy board. She thinks that because we need carbon dioxide to live, that excess carbon dioxide in the atmosphere can’t possibly hurt us.
  6. Trump nominates AccuWeather’s Barry Myers to head NOAA. NOAA is the parent agency of the National Weather Service, and Myers has pushed for limits on what the NWS can offer to the public. If he’s confirmed, he can make those limits the rule.

Puerto Rico:

I wasn’t sure what category this all belongs in, so I’m giving Puerto Rico their own category this week.

  1. Recovery efforts still lag in Puerto Rico, more than 3 weeks after the hurricane hit. Most of the island is still without power, and a third of the island has no access to clean drinking water.
  2. FEMA says it’s not their job to deliver food and water to municipalities in Puerto Rico, though they did deliver both in Texas and Florida after they were hit by hurricanes. FEMA also says it’s the job of the mayor of each city to move supplies from the distribution centers to their towns. Though most don’t have electricity or cell phone service yet.
  3. FEMA has visited some of the towns without food, water, or electricity, but generally only to help them fill out paperwork.
  4. Google gets approval from the FCC to float its Project Loon balloons over Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. This should at least give everyone an internet connection.
  5. Congress approves $4.9 billion in relief to Puerto Rico. As a loan. That they have to pay back. Is that how it works for Texas and Florida too?
  6. Some Puerto Ricans are getting drinking water from a superfund hazardous waste site.
  7. After Trump vaguely threatens to pull back the recovery effort in Puerto Rico (FEMA can’t stay there forever), FEMA jumps in to reassure the island saying they’ll be in Puerto Rico as long as it takes.
  8. When Trump says that we can’t provide aid to Puerto Rico forever, it makes him look like he still doesn’t understand that they are part of the United States.
  9. And not only is Trump unaware that Puerto Rico is part of the U.S., but also that the U.S. Virgin Islands are as well. He says he met with the president of the U.S. Virgin Islands. Meaning he met with… himself?
  10. A Bloomberg reporter is accidentally copied on an email chain between the Pentagon and FEMA about how to spin the recovery effort in Puerto Rico. The spin included emphasizing the federal government’s full attention on the response in order to fight the San Juan Mayor’s complaints; stressing FEMA’s success in reaching all cities; and playing down Trump’s attack on the Mayor of San Juan for “poor leadership.”

Budget/Economy:

  1. In an interview with Sean Hannity, Trump implies that the increase in value of the stock market of $5 trillion offsets half of the $10 trillion deficit added over the last eight years. It sounds like he thinks the stock market and the deficit are tied together. They aren’t. At all.
  2. Trump brags about how insurance company stocks dipped after his announcement that he’ll stop paying the ACA subsidies.
  3. Steve Mnuchin admits that the estate tax repeal will only help the wealthy, contradicting what Trump has been telling us.
  4. Republicans can’t agree on what constitutes the middle class for the tax plan. Pew Research puts it between about $42,000 and $125,000 in income. But Republicans’ idea of middle class ranges from $100,000 to $400,000 at the high end.
  5. Trump holds a rally for a group that includes several truckers. He touts his tax plan and says how it will save them in taxes. It likely won’t.

Elections:

  1. Steve Bannon vows to run a challenger in every single Republican primary next year.

Miscellaneous:

  1. Bob Corker has the support of many of his fellow Republicans on the Hill over what he said last week about Trump, but most of them are afraid of retaliation if they also speak up. Corker continues to speak up this week over issues with Trump.
  2. Sean Hannity has more of the president’s ear than we thought. Trump frequently calls him after his evening show, and now on weekends too.
  3. Hmmm… lots of criticism of Harvey Weinstein and his relationship with Democrats from people who voted for an alleged sex offender themselves. And for those of you saying this reveals liberal hypocrisy, Democratic politicians are scrambling to return any donations from Weinstein. We need a little introspection here, specifically around how we let powerful men get away with this shit for so long.
  4. #MeToo (and Me, Too) trends on social media, once again showing how many women have been affected by sexual harassment/discrimination/assault. The last (or only?) time this happened was when Trump’s audio tape came out.
  5. Ryan Zinke faces additional scrutiny over travel costs when it’s revealed that he attended fund raisers during official government trips, which is not allowed.
  6. Trump calls team members of the Pittsburgh Penguins great patriots, even though they’re mostly not even American.
  7. At least one Republican publicly supports articles of impeachment, and he says others want this presidency to end as well.
  8. Larry Flynt offers $10 million for information leading to the impeachment of Trump.
  9. Trump challenges Tillerson to an IQ test comparison.
  10. Trump restarts the war on Christmas narrative, saying we’ll be saying “Merry Christmas” again. News flash: People never really stopped saying it.
  11. Trump’s good friend Thomas Barrack makes some interesting comments to the press. He’s shocked and stunned by Trump’s rhetoric and his inflammatory tweets. Barrack says that Trump is better than this. He disagrees with Trump on immigration and the border wall. He thinks Trump is wasting time pandering to fringe groups. And he tells Trump all of this all the time. However, given what Trump campaigned on, how can he be surprised?

Polls:

  1. 64% of voters support stricter gun laws (including universal background checks and waiting periods). 29% oppose them. But a majority still thinks Congress will do nothing.
  2. Trump’s approval rating falls in every state, including with Republicans.
  3. 76% of Americans think the wealthiest of us should pay higher tax rates.

Week 37 in Trump

Posted on October 9, 2017 in Politics, Trump

AP / John Bazemore

Since Pence made a spectacle of this on Sunday, here’s a racial justice primer. NFL players who take a knee during the anthem aren’t protesting our flag, our anthem, or our military. They’re protesting racial injustice. And while the protest arose out of the killings of black men by police, our justice system treats them unfairly in general. They are more likely to get stopped (committing a crime or not), more likely to be arrested, more likely to be convicted, more likely to serve time, and more likely to serve a longer sentence. Every step adds to the disparity.

Using statistics for drug use and arrests as an example, say 1,000 white people and 200 black people commit the same crime. 100 white people and 74 black people might get arrested for it. (The actual numbers above aren’t accurate; they’re just to give an example. The ratios of white to black are accurate though.) So the arrest rate for white people is 10%, and for black people it’s 37%. Of those, 50 white people and 48 black people might be convicted—a 50% rate for whites and 65% for blacks. Of those, 19 white people and 24 black people might be incarcerated—a 38% rate for white people and 51% for black people. So in the end, 19 of 1,000 white people who commit the crime serve time, and 24 out of 200 black people do. So while 2% of white people who commit the crime serve time, 12% of black people do, a rate 6 times higher. And then on top of it all, those black people are more likely to get a longer sentence.

Lesson over. Here’s what happened last week in politics…

Russia:

  1. Mueller’s team starts researching limits on presidential pardons, an indication that they think Trump will try to pardon those involved in the Russia investigation or use the promise of a pardon as leverage. Trump himself has said he has the complete power to pardon.
  2. The CIA denies the Senate Judiciary Committee access to certain information about obstruction of justice in the Russia case, though it allowed the Senate Intelligence Committee to see it.
  3. From Facebook, we learn that:
    • Russia used a retargeting tool on Facebook, Custom Audiences, to target ads and messages to Americans who visited misleading web sites and social media sites that imitated political activist pages.
    • The ads’ purpose was to further divisiveness and specifically promoted anti-Muslim and anti-immigrant sentiments.
    • The ads had an explicit pro-Trump and anti-Hillary tilt. One claimed that the only viable option was to elect Trump.
    • Russian-backed Facebook groups posing as U.S. activists groups liked and shared the ads.
    • Facebook estimates about 10 million people saw the ads and messages, but that doesn’t account for likes and shares. So the actual number is probably in the 100s of millions.
    • The ads targeted Michigan and Wisconsin, each of which Trump won by less than 1% of the vote.
  4. Facebook didn’t identify Russians as the malicious actors at first, and removed mention of them from their reports.
  5. The Senate Intelligence Committee leaders update us on the status of their Russia investigation. The issue of collusion and parts of the Steele dossier are still up for question, but here’s what they think so far:
    • Putin directed the hacking, propaganda, and meddling in our 2016 elections.
    • Russia was behind the hacking of John Podesta’s emails.
    • Russia tried to exploit our divisions using fake social media accounts.
  6. Christopher Steele, the author of the Steele dossier, is in discussions to meet with congressional committees, but he already met with Robert Mueller.
  7. Three Russians names in the Steele dossier sue Fusion GPS, which commissioned the Steele dossier. They previously sued BuzzFeed, which released the full text of the dossier.
  8. U.S. Intelligence has verified parts of the Steele dossier, but won’t tell us which yet.
  9. Demonstrators mark Putin’s 65th birthday by protesting in the streets in support of opposition leader Alexey Navalny.
  10. Google also finds evidence of Russian meddling, saying they spread disinformation across Google’s products, including YouTube, Gmail, search, and the DoubleClick ad network. These don’t seem to be from the same troll farm as the Facebook ads, indicating that the propaganda effort was more widespread than originally thought.

Courts/Justice:

  1. The DOJ releases legal memos that said presidents can’t appoint their own relatives to the White House staff, even if they’re unpaid. The DOJ overruled the memos in January, allowing Trump to appoint his family members.

Healthcare:

  1. As part of a multi-pronged attack against women, Trump narrows the birth control coverage mandate of the ACA.
    • First, Trump repealed Obama’s efforts to ensure equal pay for equal work between genders.
    • Second, the House GOP eliminated Planned Parenthood from the budget. PP help helps women take control through screenings, birth control, and yes, abortion.
    • Third, the House GOP passed a bill restricting abortions, a bill which is based on incorrect science.
    • Finally, removing the birth control mandate of the ACA will make it that much harder for women to take charge of their own family planning.
  2. Chuck Schumer turns down Trump’s offer to work together on ACA repeal and replace, saying he would be willing to work together to fix the current system instead.

International:

  1. The State Department is losing career officers in droves and we’re losing our next wave of foreign policy leaders. These are people with expertise in specific areas who have established relationships with their foreign counterparts.
  2. Trump says he’ll decertify the Iran agreement next week, kicking the responsibility back to Congress to decide whether to reinstate sanctions, which would completely blow up the deal.
  3. It’s kind of important to mention that the Iran agreement, called the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), stands between Iran and a nuclear weapon. Trump has no replacement and he’s passing it off to a congress that doesn’t want it.
  4. Here are some important things to know about the JCPOA:
    • It’s not a bilateral or multi-lateral agreement; it’s a UN Security Council resolution. We don’t have the power to change it.
    • It doesn’t prevent Iran from developing its military capabilities; it only prevents them from developing nuclear weapons.
    • We don’t have the power to decertify the actual agreement; only the International Atomic Energy Agency does. Our recertification is to make us feel good.
    • There is no sunset clause 10 years. Some parts will expire, but the crucial parts won’t.
  5. International diplomats say the JCPOA is vital to the security interests of the U.S. and its allies.
  6. One member of congress says this is like Trump pulling the pin out of a grenade and handing it over to Congress.
  7. All national security advisors say we should recertify the JCPOA.
  8. Despite Trump’s tweets that Kim Jong-un is a madman, the CIA thinks he’s crazy like a fox. Kim doesn’t want nuclear war; he’d rather just live out his days ruling his country. The CIA says Kim ramps up confrontations with the U.S. to keep his grip on power.
  9. Trump urges his staff to portray him as crazy when negotiating trade deals and diplomacy, thinking it’ll scare other countries into agreement.
  10. Demonstrators march in Barcelona to protest the effort for Catalonia independence and to push for Spanish unity.
  11. In the face of major military losses, over a thousand ISIS fighters surrender.
  12. World leaders mostly recognize that Trump’s tweets are disconnected from actual policy.

Legislation/Congress:

  1. On top of the current House bill that would make silencers easier to buy, a second gun bill is working its way through Congress that would allow people to carry a concealed weapon in any state as long as it’s allowed in the state where they live.
  2. Nancy Pelosi and Mark Kelly (husband of shooting victim and former Rep. Gabby Giffords) push for a bipartisan commission to study gun violence and ways to deal with it. The House GOP votes it down.
  3. Pelosi calls on Paul Ryan to take up a bipartisan bill expanding background checks for firearms.
  4. There’s bipartisan support for banning the sale of mechanisms like the bump stock used in Las Vegas.
  5. House GOP supporters of gun rights claim to have never heard of the bump stock even though Diane Feinstein introduced legislation that included prohibitions on them in 2013.
  6. A week after letting healthcare coverage for children lapse, the House passes a new anti-abortion bill.

Travel Ban/Immigration/Discrimination:

  1. Mississippi’s sweeping anti-LGBT legislation goes into effect. This lets people and businesses discriminate against LGBT people in the areas of housing, employment, foster and adoptive care, selling goods and services, medical care, and schooling.
  2. A UN measure banning the death penalty for being gay or transgender passes, but the U.S. votes against it.
  3. Jeff Sessions issues a DOJ memo removing civil rights protections for transgender people in the workplace and reversing an Obama-era stance that included protections for transgender people in the Civil Rights Act.
  4. Sessions also issues a directive to accommodate religious groups who say their religious rights are being violated if they’re forced to give equal treatment to all human beings. This takes the onus off of them of having to prove their discrimination is because of a closely held belief.
  5. The mission of the Department of Health and Human Services is to protect the health of all Americans, yet they removed any mention of the specific health needs of the LGBTQ community from it’s latest 4-year plan. The plan promotes faith-based organizations, makes no mention of the ACA, and includes anti-abortion language.
  6. Steve Scalise, who was saved by a lesbian, plans to speak at an anti-gay summit sponsored by a group that states homosexuality shouldn’t be treated equally to heterosexuality “in law, in the media, and in schools.”
  7. The deadline for DACA renewal arrives, though it might be a surprise to some. Homeland Security originally sent out notifications with the wrong deadline date, and then never bothered to send out corrections.
  8. California governor Jerry brown signs the sanctuary state law. Here’s what that means:
    • Police can still work with ICE to detain and transfer serious criminals.
    • Police can’t unconstitutionally detain someone at ICE’s request.
    • Hospitals, schools and courthouses are safe zones for immigrants.
    • Most of the efforts implemented by police departments to work with immigrant communities will continue.
  9. The DOJ and ICE threaten retaliatory sweeps in California as a result of the sanctuary bill. They warn that there will be collateral damage, and that innocent people will be picked up as well as criminals.
  10. Recently released documents show that ICE agents were pressured to present real-life stories to support Trump’s expanded detention guidelines.
    • They went out of their way to portray immigrants as hardened criminals.
    • They tried but couldn’t come up with enough stories and were pressured to fake it.
    • This was part of an effort to deflect attention from detainees who had never committed a crime.
    • They tried to create a narrative around how undocumented immigrants threaten public safety as a way of gaining public support.
  11. The House Homeland Security Committee approves $10 billion for the border wall with Mexico.
  12. In a reversal of his previous agreement with Democrats, Trump releases immigration law requests that will hamper a new DACA solution in Congress. This includes funding the wall, cracking down on undocumented minors, and cutting funding to sanctuary cities and holds DACA kids hostage, just like he said he wouldn’t.
  13. Mike Pence walks out of the Colts game because some players took a knee, which he knew they’d do. This seems to be a preplanned publicity stunt on the taxpayers’ dime.
    • Pence flies from Las Vegas to Indianapolis on Saturday, goes to the game, and then turns around and flies back out west to Los Angeles for several fundraiser (where he’ll likely raise more money because of this).
    • Once at the game, Pence tells his press pool to stay in the van and expect an early departure.
    • Trump takes credit for the move in a tweet, saying he told Pence to leave if player knelt.
  14. White supremacists rally once again in Charlottesville, carrying torches and chanting “You will not replace us!” And “The South will rise again. Russia is our friend.” Less than 50 people were there and the rally lasted about 10 minutes.
  15. Internal emails obtained from Breitbart show that Steve Bannon, Milo Yiannopoulos, and their staff purposefully pushed an agenda based on neo-nazi and white nationalist group input.

Climate/EPA:

  1. Here’s an interesting and easy read about the environmental rules and protections overturned by the Trump administration: 52 Environmental Rules on the Way Out Under Trump
  2. Scott Pruitt’s schedule consists mainly of meeting with industry leaders and lobbyists of the businesses he’s supposed to be regulating. He rarely meets with environmental groups, consumer and public health advocates, or actual scientists.
  3. The EPA plans to repeal the Clean Power Plan, which would help cut carbon emissions from power plant and meet the goals of the Paris agreement. He plans to create a new rule based on input from the fossil fuel industry.
  4. The only thing slowing down the deregulation so far is the courts, even though fossil fuel industry leaders also say the EPA needs to slow down. Expect many lawsuits against the repeal of the Clean Power Act as well.
  5. A senior climate scientist and policy expert resigns a few months after being reassigned to an accounting job for which he had no experience. Joel Clement blew the whistle on Ryan Zinke for the reassignment, which is under investigation. I think his resignation letter is worth the read.
  6. Hurricane Nate is the fourth hurricane to make landfall in the U.S. in six weeks, causing power outages in Louisiana, Mississippi, and Florida, along with storm surges.
  7. The San Jacinto Waste Pits near Houston have a dioxin level of more the 2,000 times the level that triggers a cleanup. The hurricane has spread toxic sludge.

Budget/Economy:

  1. Trump says we’ll wipe out Puerto Rico’s debt, causing a brief panic in the bond market. Mick Mulvaney backpedals and says we won’t bail them out, even after the devastation from hurricane Maria.
  2. The House passes a 2018 budget bill. Here are a few highlights:
    • The budget is about 6-months behind schedule. They’ve already passed their 2018 spending bills.
    • The bill sets up the tax reform bill so they won’t need any Democrats to vote for it.
    • It calls for $5 trillion in spending cuts over the next decade.
    • It increases defense spending by $72 billion and cuts the rest by $5 billion in 2018.
    • It cuts Medicare and Medicaid, and also relies on repealing the ACA.
    • It cuts $203 billion from welfare programs in areas like nutritional assistance and education.
    • It leaves no room for tax reform to add to the deficit, though the tax plan is expected to add $1.5 trillion over a decade.
    • The Senate budget does take into account the tax reform deficit, and also keeps spending levels even.
  3. Democrats Tammy Baldwin and Cory Booker release a Democratic version of the tax plan, which targets tax credits toward the middle class but doesn’t simplify the loopholes.
  4. Mike Pence holds a closed-door deregulation summit. But because it’s closed-door, I can’t find any information on what was said.

Elections:

  1. You remember a while back when Trump’s voter fraud commission requested voter information from every state? A Texas judge rules this week that providing the information would violate citizens’ privacy rights.
  2. Mike Pence’s chief of staff urges donors to stop donating to politicians who are disloyal to Trump.
  3. Recently unsealed court documents show that Kris Kobach pitched a proposal to Trump to change the national voting laws last fall. Kobach’s voter laws in Kansas discouraged thousands of people from voting and have been getting struck down courts ever since he implemented them.

Miscellaneous:

  1. Here’s some of what we learn this week about the Las Vegas shooter:
    • He had 23 guns inside the room, and 24 more in his houses.
    • 33 of those guns were bought just in the last year from several different stores.
    • He sent money to his girlfriend in the Philippines, through she came back to talk to the police.
    • He set up a video surveillance system inside and outside his room.
  2. Fake news sites from both sides spread false stories about the shooting, each blaming the other side. This is why we only share stories from trusted sources people! Have we learned nothing from the Russia investigation?
  3. And we have the same fight again, with the left calling for better regulation and the right saying it’s too soon, and the left using Australia as an example and the right using Chicago. Our divide on guns is even greater than our divide on abortions.
  4. Trump calls the Las Vegas shooter a sick and demented man. This, after he rescinded Obama’s rule that prevented the severely mentally ill from obtaining weapons.
  5. Americans own half the guns in the world, even though only about a third of American households own guns.
  6. There’s a huge increase in bump stock sales.
  7. Trump visits the devastation in Puerto Rico. At the time, FEMA was still organizing, only 5% of the electrical grid was working, 17% of cellphone towers were, and more than half the residents were still without water.
  8. Trump continues the war with San Juan’s mayor first by refusing to respond to her and then by refusing to let her speak at the roundtable.
  9. Trump approves a request to let hurricane victims use food stamps to buy prepared hot meals (usually restricted for food stamps) after first appearing to deny it.
  10. On his visit, Trump accuses Puerto Rico of throwing “our” budget out of whack. He also implies that this wasn’t a “real catastrophe” like Katrina, and goes on to compare death counts.
  11. We do live in two completely separate universes. I’m watching Fox News where the banner says “San Juan mayor praises Trump meeting” and reading on CNN that “San Juan mayor criticizes Trump’s comments.”
  12. FEMA removes information from its website that showed the condition of utilities and water in Puerto Rico. These charts show the actual progress.
  13. In response to San Juan’s mayor’s request for a backup generator for a hospital that lost power, FEMA’s Brock Long says, “We filtered out the mayor a long time ago. We don’t have time for the political noise.” People had to be airlifted out of that hospital.
  14. When Tom Price was appointed to the HHS, it triggered a special election in Georgia. An election that cost $50 million. And he didn’t even last a year.
  15. Representative Tim Murphy (R-PA) is a vocal abortion opponent, yet texts show he asked his mistress to get one when they had a pregnancy scare. When she calls out his hypocrisy, he says he doesn’t write his March for Life messages, his staff does.
  16. Murphy later resigns his congressional seat. Ironically, he resigns due to investigations into mistreatment of his staff, not because of the abortion controversy.
  17. NBC reports that Tillerson called Trump a f***ing moron and threatened to quit after a national security meeting in July. Tillerson denies the threatening to quit part, but doesn’t deny the moron part.
  18. After the report, Trump can’t resist a good tweet storm and insults NBC the worse way he knows how, calling them worse than CNN!
  19. John Kelly prevents Representative Dana Rohrabacher (R-Cal) from speaking with Trump. Rohrabacher is a pro-Russia, Julian Assange ally.
  20. A criminal case against Ivanka and Donald Trump Jr. was dropped after Trump’s attorney met with the DA and donated to his reelection campaign despite hard evidence of them giving false info to prospective buyers in the Trump SoHo hotel.
  21. After a dinner with military personnel, Trump alludes to a military photo-op as being the calm before the storm. When pressed on that, he says we’ll find out. No clarification yet.
  22. The White House believes that John Kelly’s phone is compromised and has been for some time.
  23. Jared Kushner and Ivanka Trump dumped emails from their private accounts to the Trump organization after being asked to retain them. But her emails, though, right?
  24. Trump has reportedly sunk $200 million into his golf courses in Scotland, but they are losing millions.
  25. Senator Bob Corker gives a brief interview where he defends Tillerson over Trump, saying that Tillerson, Kelly, and Mattis are the people who separate the U.S. from chaos in this presidency, and they make sure our policies are sound and coherent.
  26. Trump responds in his weekend tweet storm, saying Corker begged him for an endorsement and when Trump refused, Corker dropped out. He blames Corker for the Iran deal.
  27. Corker brings a strong response: “It’s a shame the White House has become an adult day care center. Someone obviously missed their shift this morning.”
  28. In fact, Corker decided on his own not to run and Trump called him to ask him to reconsider. Of note, Corker and Trump have been on friendly terms, and Corker was considered for the vice presidency.
  29. Corker goes on to give an interview to the New York Times where he says Trump’s reckless threats could start WWIII, Trump treats the presidency like a reality show, and every day takes a tremendous effort for his staff to contain him.

Polls:

  1. 48% of Americans have confidence in the press, up 10 points from last year.
  2. 68% of voters disagree with Trump’s call to boycott NFL teams with protesting players.
  3. This one’s almost offensive in its wording. 54% of Republicans say homosexuality should be accepted by society, the first time that’s been a majority.
  4. 32% of Americans approve of Trump and 67% disapprove. This is a new low, but it’s also a different metric from my previous polls.

Week 36 in Trump

Posted on October 3, 2017 in Politics, Trump

The Mandalay Bay Resort and Casino in Las Vegas, Nevada, U.S. October 2, 2017. REUTERS/Lucy Nicholson

It just seems like it’s one thing after another, between natural disasters and man-made horrors. This week ends with a mass shooting at a country music festival in Las Vegas—the largest mass shooting in the U.S. We’re still working through the horrific aftermath of this, trying to figure out the shooter’s motivation and why he had such a large arsenal. People in Las Vegas are lining up around blocks to give blood and do what they can to help. It’s heartbreaking.

But politics still goes on. Here’s what happened last week.

Russia:

  1. The Russian ads and accounts turned over to Congress by Facebook were designed to create and spread divisive messages on hot-button topics like LGBT rights, race, immigration, and guns. They exploited our differences and used them against us.
  2. Russian ads on Facebook during the 2016 campaign:
    • Promoted votes for both Jill Stein and Bernie Sanders in the general election after Hillary had won the primary.
    • Started rumors that Clinton created, funded, and armed ISIS, and alternatively that John McCain started ISIS.
    • Criticized Clinton and questioned her authenticity while promoting Trump.
    • Impersonated black lives matter activists.
    • Impersonated a real, but obsolete, Muslim group in the U.S.
    • Seemed more intent on increasing the divide between us than pushing a certain candidate.
  3. Facebook reveals that they notified the FBI last summer that they saw what looked like Russian espionage. Later they reported that Russians were feeding the information they stole back into social media.
  4. Twitter goes before congress this week. They’ve also found social media accounts linked to Russian Facebook ads. In fact, there’s evidence that Russians used Twitter more extensively than Facebook to sow division.
  5. In an indication that Russia is still trying to affect the electorate and amplify division, hundreds of Russia-linked Twitter accounts tweet about the NFL controversy on BOTH SIDES. Pay attention people! Stop feeding Russian propaganda.
  6. According to experts, this is Russia’s method of creating chaos and division. They’ve been using similar tactics since the cold war.
  7. A member of the Senate Judiciary Committee says he’s 99% sure that Mueller’s investigation will result in criminal indictments. My guess is the most likely to be indicted are Manafort and Flynn.
  8. Sean Spicer lawyers up.
  9. The IRS criminal division shares information with Mueller’s office in the Russia investigation.
  10. The DOJ tells a company that provides services to RT America that they must register as a foreign agent under FARA. Russia warns the U.S. against taking any actions against the state-owned media groups Sputnik and RT.
  11. Federal investigators are looking into whether RT and Sputnik were involved in Russia’s propaganda campaign in 2016.

Courts/Justice:

  1. 30 House Democrats file an amicus brief claiming that the pardon of Joe Arpaio is unconstitutional and usurps the courts’ authority.

  2. The Senate Judiciary Committee approves Trump’s nominee to head the criminal division of the Department of Justice, Brian Benczkowski. This is only important because Brian represented Alfa Bank, one of the Russian organizations with close ties to Putin and one that is part of the Russia probe.

  3. The DOJ gets search warrants to force Facebook to turn over information about people who liked, commented on, followed, or reacted to a DisruptJ20 Facebook page and two other anti-Trump pages. This is about the inauguration day violence.

Healthcare:

  1. The CBO is unable to do a complete scoring of the Graham-Cassidy healthcare bill because it wasn’t given enough time, though they do estimate millions would lose healthcare and would reduce the deficit some.
  2. Susan Collins waits for the CBO report before deciding on the bill. She then says that while the Medicaid bribe means Maine would be OK with the healthcare bill, it would harm most of America and would eventually blow up on Maine as well.
  3. The latest ACA repeal effort goes out with a whimper. This takes the GOP-led Congress into October with no major legislative actions.
  4. Despite the cancellation of the vote on the ACA repeal bill, Trump says repeal is right on track saying they’d have a vote if Thad Cochran wasn’t in the hospital. Thad is not in the hospital and offered to come in if his vote is needed.
  5. Senate Republicans aren’t ready to shut the door on ACA repeal. They’re still looking at combining ACA repeal with tax reform or addressing it in the 2018 or 2019 budget.

International:

  1. While North Korea took Trump’s recent words as a declaration of war, North Korean officials are also reaching out to Republican operatives to get a better understanding of Trump.
  2. Trump criticizes Rex Tillerson for continuing diplomatic efforts with North Korea.
  3. China orders all North Korean businesses in the country to close as part of the UN sanctions.
  4. U.S. intelligence says they have no evidence to back up Trump’s Tweet that Iran tested a missile last weekend. Trump based it on an announcement from an Iran news station, but our sensors show no indications of the test.
  5. The death toll from the earthquake in Mexico is now over 360.
  6. While the U.S. government doesn’t think that Cuba is behind whatever is causing the strange illnesses in U.S. diplomatic personnel in Havana, they plan to pull everyone out for now and warn tourists not to go there.
  7. Catalonia votes for independence from Spain, with less than half voting. Spain sends in law enforcement to prevent people from voting, and violence ensues. Spain says the vote is illegal.

Legislation/Congress:

  1. Republican Senator Bob Corker announces he won’t run again in 2018.
  2. The House plans to vote on a bill that would ban abortions after 20 weeks, with exceptions for health and incest or rape.
  3. Congress works on an aid package for Puerto Rico.
  4. Illinois lifts restrictions on using Medicaid to cover abortions and removes language in their law aiming to criminalize abortion if Roe v. Wade is ever overturned.
  5. House Majority Whip Steve Scalise, who’s been out for several months recovering from the baseball field shooting, returns to Congress. Just in time for the upcoming bill to make it easier to buy gun silencers.
  6. Congress quietly let funding for the following programs expire (but I assume will revive them?):
    • Healthcare for low-income kids (CHIP)
    • Community health centers
    • Loans for low-income college students

Travel Ban/Immigration/Discrimination:

  1. The UNC Tarheels national basketball champions join the list of teams who won’t be visiting the White House this year.
  2. Three House GOP members propose an alternative to the DREAM Act to make sure DACA kids aren’t deported. For some reason, it cuts off eligibility for those who were brought here after 2012.
  3. Homeland Security creates a new rule to let them collect and store social media information in their immigrant files. This includes social media aliases and handles, associated information, and even search results for all immigrants—including permanent residents and naturalized citizens. I can’t tell if this is for new immigrants only or if it’s retroactive.
  4. The State Department and Pentagon oppose including Chad in the travel ban, but Trump includes it anyway (possibly on Stephen Miller’s advice). The ban will jeopardize U.S. interests in Chad since they’re one of our more reliable allies in Africa in the fight against terrorism.
  5. Trump doesn’t seem to know why Sudan was removed from the travel ban.
  6. Trump caps refugee admissions at 45,000; it’s never been below 67,000. The defense and state departments, the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and the UN recommend allowing at least 50,000. Stephen Miller and John Kelly pushed for a 15,000 limit.
  7. Jeff Sessions’ Justice Department argues in court that employers should be allowed to fire people for being gay. This pits them against another federal agency, the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission (EEOC), which says that equal employment rules protect against discrimination based on religion, sex, or race, and that sex includes sexual orientation. The court can’t figure out why the DOJ jumped in here, and legal experts predict the DOJ will lose.
  8. Trump continues to blast the NFL. He says he started with the NFL comments because owners were calling him asking him to do something and they were afraid of their players. I can’t even with this one. Owners can’t either.
  9. In an impromptu press conference five days after Trump started his fight with the NFL, he says they need to change or their business is going to go to hell.
  10. It turns out that Trump didn’t like the crowd size when he stumped for Luther Strange, but his comments about the NFL were a hit there. Thus the 5-day Twitter storm about the players’ protest.
  11. Trump and his top aides privately admit that this is a culture war he’s waging to rally his base.
  12. Alt-right groups appear to be flailing right now amid infighting and splintering. They’ve planned and then cancelled several events, and are struggling to get any traction.
  13. Even though a Homeland Security report says the border is more difficult to cross than ever before, Trump moves forward with his wall prototypes between San Diego and Tijuana.
  14. In a massive sweep of so-called sanctuary cities, ICE detains nearly 500 undocumented immigrants.
  15. ICE deports the father of an autistic son despite not having any criminal record and never missing an ICE meeting. He is now in Tijuana, away from his wife of 23 years (a U.S. citizen) and their two children (also U.S. citizens).
  16. Jared Kushner works behind John Kelly’s back on a DACA deal with Lindsey Graham and Dick Durbin.

Climate/EPA:

  1. Paranoid much? The EPA is building a sound-proof booth for Scott Pruitt to conduct official business so none of the staffers can hear him.
  2. A new study shows that an Obama-era effort to ban sales of bottled water at some parks had a significant effect. The rule saved up to 111,743 pounds of plastic, 141 million tons of CO2-equivalent greenhouse gases, and 3.4 billion BTUs of energy. Oh, as part of Trump’s deregulation efforts, the National Park Service rescinded this rule last month.
  3. Senate Republicans include wording in a budget resolution to pave the way to open ANWR to oil and gas drilling. The refuge has been protected for more than 50 years.

Budget/Economy:

  1. The GOP tax plan, which was drafted behind close doors by six Republicans (apparently the new modus operandi), would be a mixed bag for taxpayers and a tax cut for corporations. Here’s are the main points:
    • It shrinks the number of brackets from 7 to 3, meaning lower taxes for some, higher taxes for others. The tax rate for the lowest income would be higher, and for high-middle income would be lower. The rate for the top money earners would drop by nearly 5 points.
    • It cuts business taxes drastically, but removes certain loopholes.
    • It repeals the estate tax.
    • It gives tax breaks to people who’s income is passed through a closely-held corporation.
    • It removes certain deductions, like the state tax deductions, but doubles the standard deduction.
    • It removes the ATM tax.
  2. Polls show the middle class doesn’t necessarily want tax cuts; they just want the government to use their money better.
  3. The Tax Policy Center says the proposed tax changes would benefit the wealthiest Americans and businesses most.
  4. Gary Cohn, who’s worth about $266 million, says a family of four with $100,000 in income would save around $1,000 a year with the new tax plan—enough to “renovate their kitchen. They can buy a new car. They can take a family vacation. They can increase their lifestyle.” I’m thinking this guy doesn’t do a lot of his own shopping.
  5. Cohn also won’t guarantee that the tax plan will help the middle class, but he does say the wealthy won’t get a tax break. That’s a plain out lie.
  6. Under the Republicans’ budget proposal, they can increase the deficit up to $1.5 trillion over 10 years, which will help them lower taxes on businesses and the wealthy. They think the tax cuts will cause the economy to soar and make up for any deficits.
  7. Every economic level is now officially out of the recession. Minorities and people without high school diplomas have seen the greatest gains since 2013. This didn’t narrow the wealth gap though, since higher income sectors got a jump start on the recovery.
  8. Trump dumps his original plan to include private sector funding for his infrastructure program, which leaves state and local governments to pay for it (unless he can get funding through Congress).
  9. Trump says that the new tax plan will cause growth to increase up to 6% per year, more than double what most economists say is possible.
  10. Trump went to Indiana to stump for the new tax plan, saying that it’s the largest tax cut in history (it isn’t), that cutting the estate tax will help small farmers and businesses (there are only about 80 that qualify), and that we have the highest corporate tax rate of developed countries (what corporations actually pay is below the average). He also says our tax code is ridiculously complicated, and there he’s spot on. But then he says the changes won’t help him out, which OF COURSE they would.
  11. Steve Mnuchin says workers benefit most from corporate tax cuts, and then removes a page from the Treasury website that includes a 2012 economic analysis refuting that.
  12. The Senate budget resolution removes a requirement that they wait 28 hours after a CBO score to vote on a bill. The requirement was put in place two years ago, so it seems the Republicans put it in place and then removed it.
  13. 12% of Americans want to decrease taxes on the wealthy, and 16% want to cut taxes for corporations. The majority want to increase those taxes instead.

Elections:

  1. A University of Wisconsin study estimates that the state’s stricter voter ID laws prevented 17,000 registered voters from voting in 2016. It was Wisconsin’s lowest voter turnout since 2000.
  2. In Alabama, Bannon-backed Roy Moore defeats Trump-backed Luther Strange. Moore thinks:
    • Homosexuality should be illegal.
    • Homosexuality is no different than beastiality.
    • “Blacks and whites” are fighting, “reds and yellows” are fighting.
    • There’s no such thing as evolution.
    • Sharia law is being enforced in the U.S.
    • Islam is a fake religion.
  3. After his candidate lost in Alabama, Trump starts deleting his tweets supporting Luther Strange.

Miscellaneous:

  1. Last week, we learned that Jared Kushner uses a private email account for White House business at times. This week, we find out that at least six high-level White House staffers have done the same.
  2. Anthony Weiner gets a 21-month sentence for the sexting case that reopened Hillary’s email case the week before the 2016 election.
  3. I don’t even know what Ryan Zinke means here. He accuses a third of his staff at the Department of the Interior of not being loyal to the flag or the president. He says this to the National Petroleum Council, so maybe what he really means is that a third of his department isn’t loyal to fossil fuels?
  4. Trump at first refuses a congressional request to waive the Jones Act (shipping restrictions) to help get aid to Puerto Rico. He waived the act quickly for Houston and Florida hurricane relief. The DHS cited lack of port availability in Puerto Rico.
  5. In an impromptu press conference, Trump says he doesn’t want to lift the Jones Act, even though it would speed up recovery efforts in Puerto Rico, because the shipping industry is against it.
  6. The next day, he says he’ll waive the Jones Act.
  7. As we start to see the extent of the devastation in Puerto Rico, the Trump administration receives criticism for its slow response. And a Twitter war follows…
  8. The acting head of Homeland Security calls Puerto Rico relief efforts a “good news” story; the mayor of San Juan, along with journalists on the ground, disagree.
  9. Puerto Rican’s are told to register for FEMA relief via the internet, which most of them don’t even have.
  10. Musician Pitbull sends his private jet to Puerto Rico to airlift out chemo patients who can’t get life-saving treatment.
  11. General Buchanan, who is now running the relief operation, says they just don’t have the resources to deal with this kind of devastation—neither enough people nor resources.
  12. Brock Long, head of FEMA, says they are making good progress.
  13. Trump accuses the mayor of San Juan Puerto Rico of being a poor leader and says the Democrats told her she has to be nasty to him. He continues his twitter fight with her through the week, calling her an ingrate. She’s been living in a shelter because her home was destroyed and is trying to hold the city together.
  14. Trump also says things were so bad in Puerto Rico even before the storm that they were at their lives end. He says Puerto Rico will have to figure out how to repay the U.S., so it sounds like he still doesn’t understand they are part of the U.S. He hasn’t talked about how Texas or Florida will repay the government.
  15. Both Republicans and Democrats launch new committees to influence congressional and state legislative district lines following the next census. IMO, it’s time for independent commissions to take care of drawing up all these lines.
  16. A librarian rejects Melania Trump’s gift of Dr. Seuss books in an unnecessarily snarky manner.
  17. Jeff Sessions claims that protestors routinely shut down speeches and debates across the U.S. from people who they disagree with, and calls for a renewed commitment to free speech.
  18. The acting DEA administrator resigns, saying Trump doesn’t care about the rule of law.
  19. Milo Yiannopoulos gives a brief speech at Berkeley in lieu of free speech week (which he couldn’t garner enough support for). Students boo and mock him.
  20. Ryan Zinke gets called out for using non-commercial planes at taxpayer expense, along with Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, EPA administrator Scott Pruitt, and HHS Secretary Tom Price. In fairness, Obama’s cabinet used private or military flights slightly more frequently during the same period.
  21. Tom Price has an ongoing scandal around investments in a medical company at the time he was nominated. Price was also trying to reopen the executive dining room at HHS while gutting his department and cutting spending on healthcare for Americans.
  22. And then Tom Price resigns.
  23. As of now, Trump has rolled back or delayed around 800 Obama-era regulations.
  24. After Hurricane Maria, the State Department evacuated 225 people from Dominica, but made them agree to reimburse the department for travel expenses.

Polls:

  1. 57% of Americans don’t think NFL players should be fired for kneeling during the anthem, though most say they themselves stand. Polls show us pretty evenly divided on the protest.
  2. 83% of voters would support a path to legal residence for illegal immigrants. 14% say “deport as many as possible.”